Chicago Grains End Lower, Despite Some Bullish Info
05/05/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed sharply lower, and were back testing $10/bu on the nearby May. Weekly export sales of 815,800 MT for 2015/16 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. For 2016/17, net sales of 430,000 MT were reported for mostly unknown destinations (296,000 MT). The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange predicts that 1.94 million soybean acres in Argentina were lost because of heavy rainfall. All of that sounds pretty friendly for beans, but not enough to spark a rally from where we currently lie it would seem. May 16 Soybeans settled at $10.03 1/2, down 21 cents; Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $10.12 1/4, down 21 3/4 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $335.00, down $8.00; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.01, down 19 points.
Corn: The corn market closed lower, Weekly net export sales of 769,300 MT for 2015/16 were down 64 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average, so failed to impress. There were also new crop net export sales of net of 60,500 MT. Exports of 1,226,000 MT were up 13 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (373,700 MT), Colombia (257,500 MT), Peru (140,900 MT), Japan (111,900 MT), Taiwan (101,000 MT), China (65,100 MT), and Venezuela (60,000 MT). Israel bought 120,000 MT of what some are saying could have been US corn in a tender. May 16 Corn settled at $3.71 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.73 3/4, down 3 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. Weekly export sales s=were poor at 178,900 MT for delivery in the marketing year 2015/16, being down 49 percent from the previous week. New crop sales of 140,000 MT were reported primarily for China (61,500 MT), Mexico (25,700 MT), Japan (20,000 MT), and South Korea (19,700 MT). of 385,200 MT were down 12 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. The The Kansas wheat tour estimates Kansas all wheat production to reach 382.4 million bushels this summer, with an average yield of 48.6 bu/ac, up from the tour estimate of 288.5 million bushels in 2015. The USDA's FAS in Canada said that 2016/17 all wheat ending stocks there may fall to an all time low 3.75 MMT - the lowest since official records began in 1960. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.63 1/4, down 8 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.52 3/4, down 5 cents; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.31 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents.
EU Grains Mixed, Wind Of Change For Old Crop/New Crop London Wheat Spread
05/05/16 -- EU grains trade mostly mixed heading into the close on Thursday, with May 16 London wheat unchanged at GBP107.25/tonne, May Paris wheat also unchanged at EUR160.25/tonne, June corn was another flat month at EUR161.50/tonne and Aug 16 rapeseed was up a euro at EUR363.00/tonne.
It'a a holiday shortened week for many, and it sure feels like it. The new month ha s finally brought some better weather along with it, for the UK anyhow, and hopes are fairly high of some decent crops again this year - even if growers don't fancy the prices on offer much.
The May16/Nov16 London wheat old crop new crop spread has narrowed in the last few days. One key factor to watch for now is if this is the start of a trend.
It might be, given that "imported maize has become even more costly against UK ex-farm feed wheat in the last month, with the premium lifting to almost £34/t last week, say the HGCA.
That might cut corn usual in feed in the final Q4 of 2015/16, to the benefit of wheat.
Suddenly robust UK wheat exports might also provide a late boost in demand for wheat domestically, finally supporting this that carried old crop this far- not that many would call it a winning marketing strategy.
Israel were reported buying 120,000 MT of corn and 40,000 MT of feed wheat, of optional origin in a tender today. Tunisia are in the market for 100,000 MT of optional origin feed barley.
Indian millers are said to have bought at least 140,000 MT of Australian wheat in the past two weeks to mix with its own lower grade stocks.
Quite Day In Europe Due To Holidays
03/05/16 -- EU grains mostly lower, with fresh news scarce and some markets ckosed for May Day/Ascension Day.
May 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.75/tonne lower at EUR150.25/tonne, June corn rose EUR1.00/tonne lower to EUR161.75/tonne and new front month Aug 16 Paris rapeseed closed EUR3.50/tonne lower at EUR358.25/tonne.
In an assortment of weekend activity, Saudi Arabia were said to have bought 620 MT of optional origin hard wheat at prices ranging from $210-220 C&F for Jul/Aug shipment in various cargo sizes.
Thailand were said to have booked 50,000 MT of option origin feed wheat and Algeria bought 140,000 MT of corn and 40,000 MT% of feed wheat both of optional origin. Israel are expected to tender for 140,000 MT of corn and 30,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat for Jun and September shortly.
The situation in Europe continues to look pretty good, with the EU Commission calling for a soft wheat crop of 148.2 MMT in 2016 versus 151.3 MMT a year ago. Ending stocks in 2016/17 are still intimated 600,000 MT higher though at 189.1 MT.
Corn production in 2016/17 will jump more than 11% to 64.7 MMT meanwhile, they add.
For the last week of April Ukraine's grain exports via seaports were up around 1000 MT To 515.3MMT, say APK Inform. Wheat accounted for 237.2 TMT of that total and, another 171.4 TMT and barley 106.7 TMT, they added.
French Crop Conditions Fall
29/04/16 -- EU grains closed mixed. with front month May 16 London wheat up GBP0.35/tonne at GBP106.95/tonne, May 16 Paris wheat was EUR1.50/tonne lower at EUR151.50/tonne, Jun 16 corn was down EUR2.00/tonne to EUR163.00/tonne and Aug also 16 rapeseed tumbled EUR2.00/tonne at EUR365.25/tonne.
London wheat is closed on Monday for the May Day Celebrations, and some other markets, like Russia, will also be shut too.
France and Chicago will be open as normal.
Russia said Friday night that spring grain plantings there were well advanced comapred to normal at 21.3% done on 6.6 million ha. That includes 954k ha of spring wheat (versus 561k ha) a year ago; 3.1 milion ha (2.5m ha) of spring barley; and 1.3 million ha of corn (986k ha).
FranceAgriMer today cut French winter wheat good to very good conditions by 4 points from last week to 88% (91% last year). They were down 3 points on winter barley too, at 87% versus 90% this time last year. Spring barley good to very good was unchanged at 04% (down from 95% this time a year ago). There's nothing to get too worried about here just yet, these numbers are still historically quite high.
Traditionally early parts of the French winter wheat crop have begun heading, with the crop nationally 1% headed at this early stage - the same as a year ago.
Winter barley is 4% headed nationwide versus 11 % a year ago. Early corn planting is 27% complete against 11% a week ago and 68% a year ago at this time.
"Combined UK wheat and barley exports hit the highest monthly level since November 2011 in February, aided partially by currency movements," noted the HGCA.
"Since the end of December and moving into 2016, sterling has weakened considerably against a number of currencies, including the euro and the US dollar. This has aided UK cereals price competitiveness and helped boost exports over the past few months. Furthermore, in February, combined wheat and barley exports totalled 512.5Kt, the highest combined level since November 2011," they added.
