Nogger's Blog

Chicago Soybeans And Corn Set New Lows

02/08/13 -- Soycomplex: Old crop Aug 13 closed at the lowest level for a front month since March 2012, whilst new crop Nov 13 beans finished at a 14 month low. The US weather outlook remains benign, talk of cool and damp conditions for the next two weeks followed by warmer and drier from the middle of August onwards is adopting an almost ideal look. China confirmed that they will auction off 500 TMT of soybeans from government reserves, not as much as the 3 MMT that was rumoured, but then again more than the flat denial that they'd issued to date. The Brazilian Ministry reported that they'd exported 5.66 MMT of soybeans in July, down from 6.5 MMT in June, although up on the 4.13 MMT shipped in July 2012. China were said to have bought Brazilian beans for March shipment yesterday. The Brazilian Ministry pegged July soymeal exports at 1.60 MMT versus 1.27 MMT in June and 1.54 MMT a year previously. Informa Economics are due to release their August crop production estimates on Monday. With new crop Nov taking out the April low today, there's talk that USD11.50 is the next target, with even a chance of testing USD11.00 if that level could be broken. Interestingly, USD11.00 was the bottom of the market in 2011, we haven't seen nearby beans trade below that level since October 2010. Aug 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.31, down 26 3/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD11.81 1/2, down 11 cents; Aug 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD412.10, down USD13.30; Aug 13 Soybean Oil closed at 42.38, down 11 points. For the week nearby beans fell 18 3/4 cents, with meal down USD18.20 and oil sliding 120 points.

Corn: Aug 13 corn finished at a lifetime closing low for the contract and also the lowest close for a front month on the continuous charts since the early days of October 2010. New crop Dec 13 hasn't been this low since almost then either. The trade will be eyeing Informa's crop production estimates on Monday, with FCStone having come out with a production number close to 14 billion bushels and also a yield estimate above that of the USDA yesterday. China’s COFCO bought 120 TMT Ukraine corn for Oct/Nov shipment. South Korea's NOFI cancelled a tender to import 70 TMT of optional origin corn for Jan shipment in anticipation of lower prices. Vietnam bought 150 TMT South American corn for Dec shipment. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the corn harvest in Argentina is 96.5% complete versus 93.2% a week ago and 95.7% a year ago. They have the Argentine 2012/13 corn crop estimated at 24.8 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate and well below the Argentine government's forecast of 32.1 MMT. The Brazilian Trade Ministry said July corn exports were 733,300 MT vs. 276,300 MT in June and 1.70 MMT in July 2012. With new crop Dec 13 now at more than 2 1/2 year lows there's lots of talk of USD4.50 being tested, and maybe even lower. Rabobank have USD4.25 in their sights for Q2 of 2014. With international buyers looking to cheaper corn/feed wheat options out of the Black Sea or South America, a potentially record US crop and plateauing US ethanol production, the outlook for US corn prices remains bearish without a weather threat. Sep 13 Corn closed at USD4.76, down 11 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.63 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents. For the week that puts Sep 13 down 16 cents, with Dec 13 down 12 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed narrowly mixed, with corn keeping a lid on rally attempts. Whilst there might be plenty of wheat around globally in 2013/14 how much of it is up to milling wheat standard remains to be seen. There are reports of quality issues in Europe, Russia, China and even the US emerging this week. Brazil bought 50-60 TMT of US HRW wheat yesterday for August shipment. They are said to have bought around 500 TMT of US wheat over the past week. Bangladesh bought 40 TMT of Indian wheat. Pakistan has bought 250 TMT of Black Sea wheat and is looking for more. Thailand bought 110 TMT of cheap Black Sea feed wheat for Oct/Nov shipment today. The USDA attache in Canada forecast the wheat crop there at 29.4 MMT, the highest since 1992/93 and up 8% on last year. Canadian wheat exports will total 19.5 MMT in 2013/14 - the most since 1997/98 - the attache said. Despite that ending stocks in 2013/14 will also climb from 4.9 MMT last season to 5.6 MMT, they added. Russia’s Grain Union estimated August grain exports at 2.5-3.0 MMT versus 2.0 MMT in July. Of that 2.0-2.5 MMT will be wheat versus 1.7 MMT in July, they added. Kazakhstan's Ag Ministry estimated their 2013 grain crop at 16.3 MMT versus a previous estimate of 15.0 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that Argentine wheat planting is 95.3% complete versus 92.7% a week ago and 94.0% a year ago. They have the Argentine 2013/14 wheat planted area estimated at 3.9 million hectares, unchanged from their previous forecast. Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.60 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents; Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.06 3/4, unchanged; Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.41 1/4, down 1/2 cent. For the week Chicago wheat rose 10 1/4 cents, with Kansas up 15 1/4 cents and Minneapolis 4 3/4 cents firmer.

EU Wheat A Little Lower Pressured By Sharp Rebound In Black Sea Production

02/08/13 -- EU grains closed mostly a little easier on continued harvest pressure, even though reports of low protein levels in French wheat persist. The "usual suspects" are lining up with a strong rebound in production this year to aggressively market their wares.

Nov 13 London wheat ended the day GBP0.15/tonne lower at GBP162.70/tonne and with Jan 14 also closing down GBP0.15/tonne at GBP163.70/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat fell EUR0.75/tonne to close at EUR186.50/tonne.

That means there's been very little change in wheat prices for the week as a whole, with Nov 13 London wheat ending the week just five pence lower than it began it, Nov 13 Paris wheat lost EUR1.25/tonne versus last Friday.

FranceAgriMer said today that the French wheat harvest had advanced from 14% done a week ago to 30% complete as of Jul 29. The winter barley harvest is almost over at 98% complete, whilst even 12% of the French spring barley is already in the barn.

The French corn crop has advanced to 47% silking from only 12% a week previously, although well behind 80% this time last year. Corn good/excellent crop conditions fell 2 points on last week to 55%. Good/excellent ratings in wheat held steady at 66%. Spring barley good/excellent fell one point to 67%.

The Ukraine early grain harvest is winding down at 91% complete, producing 28.8 MMT of grains so far. That total includes 20.79 MMT of winter wheat off 94% of the anticipated area. They've also harvested 151,600 MT of spring wheat off 42% of the planned area.

The winter barley harvest is over, producing just under 3 MMT. Spring barley is 85% cut, with a crop of 3.82 MMT so far. The Ukraine OSR harvest is 99% complete, producing a crop of 2.18 MMT.

The Ukraine Ag Minister said that this year's early grain crop (which excludes corn production) will total 31 MMT. The full grain harvest including corn will be a record 57-58 MMT, allowing exports also of record levels at around 27-28 MMT, propelling Ukraine into the world's top three grain exporting nations, he added.

To add further pressure to European grain prices, Kazakhstan today raised their forecast for this year's grain crop from 15 MMT to 16.3 MMT, saying that 67% of the crop was in good condition, and a further 30% rated as being in fair condition. A crop of 16.3 MMT would represent a more than 26% increase on output in 2012.

The Russian harvest has slowed up due to rain in the Central and Volga Districts during recent days. So far nearly 37 MMT of grains have been harvested off 28.4% of the planned area. Wheat accounts for 29.4 MMT of that off 38.1% of the anticipated area, with yields up 26% at 2.82 MT/ha to date.

Brussels confirmed yesterday that they'd issued 566 TMT of soft wheat export licenses in the past week, bringing the 2013/14 year-to-date total to 1.6 MMT. They also approved 270 TMT of barley for export, taking the YTD total to 1.2 MMT, along with 130 TMT of corn (YTD total now 277 TMT).

French milling wheat delivered Rouen is offered at EUR184/tonne (circa GBP160/tonne), with French barley around EUR10/tonne under that. French OSR FOB Moselle is offered at EUR355/tonne (around GBP309/tonne).

Thailand bought two cargoes of Black Sea feed wheat for Oct/Nov shipment at USD258-259/tonne C&F. That's the equivalent of GBP170/tonne including shipping costs.

ODA estimated the UK wheat crop at around 11.7 MMT versus 13.3 MMT last year. Their figure is very close to the USDA's current forecast of 11.75 MMT.

EU Rapemeal Prices Rebound

02/08/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent staged a little rebound yesterday, which has continued through to today on ideas that prices have fallen enough to flush out some buying interest.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

Chicago Mostly Lower Despite Strong Exports

01/08/13 -- Soycomplex: Weekly export sales of 78,500 MT of old crop and 1,030,900 MT of new crop - primarily for China (558,000 MT) and unknown destinations (302,000 MT) - easily beat trade forecasts for net sales of 450-600 TMT. The market ignored that, closing sharply lower, with new crop Nov 13 at a more than one year sub-USD12/bu low. A strong US dollar, linked to ideas that the Fed isn't as eager to abruptly end the era of easy money as was previously thought, trumped everything it would seem. FCStone estimated the US 2013 soybean crop at 3.309 billion bushels with yields of 43.0 bu/acre. That's very close to Lanworth Inc who went for 3.31 billion bushels, with yields at 42.9 bu/acre, yesterday. The USDA are currently at 3.42 billion bushels and 44.5 bu/acre. Agritrend yesterday estimated Argentina’s 2013/14 soybean crop at a record high 55.0 MMT, versus the 2012/13 crop estimate of 49.0 MMT and compared to the 2009/10 record crop of 52.7 MMT. The USDA currently estimate Argentina’s 2013/14 soybean crop at 53.5 MMT. The US weather outlook continues with the non threatening cool theme. "Rains increased across the southwestern Midwest and Delta this past week, which significantly improved moisture supplies for soybeans. Rains this week should further improve moisture in southwestern Illinois, and central and western Iowa. However, some spotty dryness will linger in southeastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois. Also, moisture will decline a bit in Minnesota and Wisconsin as rains remain limited there," said MDA CropCast. Aug 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.57 3/4, down 16 1/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD11.92 1/2, down 13 3/4 cents; Aug 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD425.40, down USD9.70; Aug 13 Soybean Oil closed at 42.49, up 40 points.

Corn: The corn market behaved exactly the same as soybeans. Weekly export sales of 134,000 MT of old crop and 1,091,200 MT of new crop were well ahead of trade expectations for combined sales of 400-600 TMT. The main new crop buyers were Mexico (393,800 MT), unknown destinations (306,200 MT), China (208,600 MT), and Japan (123,300 MT). Despite that corn closed sharply lower with new crop Dec 13 slumping to a fresh 2 1/2 year low. MDA CropCast increased their forecast for the 2013 US corn crop by 5 MMT from last week to 348 MMT, due to improved rains and the lack of a heat threat. The IGC pegged the US corn crop at 350 MMT. They estimated the 2013/14 global corn crop at 942.0 MMT, down 4 MMT from a previous estimate of 946.0 MMT and 18 MMT below the USDA's forecast of 960 MMT, although still a record. "World stocks will be rebuilt in 2013/14, with inventories in the four main exporters forecast at a nine-year high," they noted. F O Licht estimated the EU-28 2013 corn crop at 67.0 MMT versus 59.0 MMT a year ago. They said that this bumper crop will reduce EU reliance on imports this year. They estimated the French corn crop at 14.8 MMT versus 15.6 MMT a year ago, saying that this wasn't going to be a vintage year for them. FCStone estimated the 2013 US corn crop at 13.993 billion with yields at 157 bu/acre. Both those numbers are very close to the USDA's 13.95 billion bushels and 156.5 bu/acre estimates. South Korea's Kocopia cancelled their tender for 55 TMT of optional origin corn for Sep/Oct shipment due to quality issues. The lowest offer was said to be Black Sea corn at USD253.50 C&F. Lanworth Inc yesterday raised their forecast for corn production in Ukraine this year to 26.4 MMT versus 20.9 MMT last year and the USDA's current forecast of 26.0 MMT. The Ukraine Ag Ministry forecast a corn crop of a record 26 MMT, with exports at an also record 16 MMT. Sep 13 Corn closed at USD4.87 1/2, down 11 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.67, down 12 cents.

Wheat: Weekly export sales of 596,900 MT were in line with trade estimates of 500-700 TMT and interestingly included China (129,900 MT) and Brazil (88,300 MT). Reuters are reporting that Brazil has bought 400 TMT of US HRW wheat in the past week due to lack of availability from Argentina. Their own wheat crop is said to have been badly damaged by frost last week. The Xinhua News Agency are reporting that China has found pests in US SRW wheat shipments. The implications of that are currently unclear. MDA CropCast raised their forecast for world wheat production by 2.9 MMT from last week to 674 MMT, largely thanks to a surprise 2.5 MMT increase for Russian output to 53.1 MMT at a time when other analysts are reducing the size of the Russian crop. "Rains were abundant across northwestern and eastern Volga Valley and north central Kazakhstan this past week, which further improved moisture there as well as spring wheat conditions," they said. The Russian grain harvest is 28% complete at 36.5 MMT, including 29.2 MMT of wheat off 38% of the planned area. Wheat yields are said to currently be 3.07 MT/ha, up 28.5% on this time a year ago. Pakistan bought 55 TMT of Ukraine milling wheat for August shipment at USD276/tonne C&F. They are said to be likely to have to import up to 1 MMT of wheat this year, a 5-year high, which could throw into jeopardy their supposed agreement to provide Iran with 1 MMT of wheat in exchange for electricity. The Philippines also bought 45 TMT of Black Sea origin wheat for October shipment. Australian firm CBH said that Western Australia state will have a below average grain crop this year due to virtually no rain at all during June and the first half of July. Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.58, down 6 1/4 cents; Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.06 3/4, unchanged; Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.41 3/4, up 1/2 cent.

EU Wheat Down As Eastern Europe Prospects Weigh

01/08/13 -- EU grains were firmer for a good part of the day, but turned lower in afternoon trade pressured by a weaker Chicago market once the daytime session across the pond opened.

London wheat closed with front month Nov 13 GBP1.40/tonne lower at GBP162.85/tonne, Jan 14 was also GBP1.40/tonne easier at GBP163.85/tonne and Nov 13 Paris wheat fell EUR2.50/tonne to EUR187.25/tonne. Both London and Paris wheat are now almost back to the recent lows.

Pressure from bumper and cheap Eastern European crops is weighing on the market. Ukraine's early grain harvest (excluding corn) is 89% complete at a shade under 28 MMT. That includes a wheat harvest of 20.3 MMT off 93% of the planned area. Add on a bit of spring wheat, for which the harvest so far totals 115.4 TMT off 34% of the plan, and they look like finishing up with a crop in excess of 22 MMT versus 15.8 MMT a year ago.

Ukraine's Ag Ministry estimated Ukraine’s 2013 grain crop at a record high of 57.1 MMT versus a previous estimate of 53-54 MMT and compared to the 2012 grain crop of 46.2 MMT.

Ukraine's July grain exports were 1.2 MMT. Those are seen rising to 1.5-1.7 MMT this month. Full season exports could be a record 28 MT said the Ministry, adding ominously that "Ukraine will carry out a confident and even aggressive policy on the global food market, especially in its grain segment." Their target includes a record 26 MMT corn harvest, of which 16 MMT will be shipped abroad.

Corn production in Ukraine has really exploded in the past 3 years, as recently as 2010/11 they were harvesting a crop of less than 12 MMT, of which only 5 MMT went for export.

Later in the day the IGC released their latest world crop production estimates, increasing the size of the world wheat crop to 687 MMT from a previous estimate of 683 MMT. The crop in Europe was raised to 141.5 MMT versus a previous estimate of 139.4 MMT.

German analysts F O Licht said that Europe would reap a corn crop of 67 MMT this year, up 13.6% on the 59 MMT produced last year, despite some problems in the EU's largest producing nation France. Again it's in the east where the big gains are coming from. Romania's 2013 corn harvest will jump 78% to 10.5 MMT from 5.9 MMT and Hungary's will leap almost 77% to 8.3 MMT from 4.7 MMT last year, they added.

The USDA FAS office in Serbia forecast grain production there this year to jump 58% from 1.9 MMT to 3.0 MMT, with exports rising sharply to 1.0 MMT.

The USDA attaché in the Czech Republic estimated 2013 total grain output at 6.5 MMT, up 16% from a year ago. He estimated their 2013 rapeseed crop at a record high of 1.3 MMT.

Rusagrotrans lowered their forecast for the Russian grain crop from 94.3-96.5 MMT to 92.1-93.8 MMT, although that's still well ahead of the 77.2 MMT produced last year.

At home, the HGCA said that "The very warm and sunny weather has been beneficial for most crops, helping to drive grain fill, although some crops on lighter soils have come under moisture stress and others have suffered in the high peak temperatures."

They estimate the UK barley harvest at 10% complete, noting that "there is good progress in the south and east, but most regions are still 7-10 days away from the main start of harvest." A bit of wheat has also been cut, although "most crops in the south are still at least 10-14 days away from harvest. Further north the earliest crops are still 14-21 days from harvest," they added.

EU Rapemeal Prices Continue To Fall

01/08/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent continue their fall from grace, and they'd risen to such lofty heights that it's a long way down.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

Chicago Extends Recovery, Will It Last?

31/07/13 -- Soycomplex: The volatility continues, with front end beans and meal putting back in some of the premium they'd given up lately. The prospect of a very large, and probably record, US crop looms but it just isn't here yet. Lanworth Inc actually lowered their forecast for US soybean production a fraction to 3.31 billion bushels, with yields trimmed to 42.9 bu/acre. They left world output in 2013/14 unchanged at 283 MMT. Analysts are lining up to predict increased soybean plantings in South America for the 201314 harvest, despite the recent price dip. Michael Cordonnier today estimated Brazilian plantings up 3-5%, broadly in line with estimates earlier in the week from Safras e Mercado (+3.8%) and AgRural (+6%). Argentina's Agritrend meanwhile see plantings there rising at least 2.5%, with output possibly as high as a record 55 MMT. For these reasons most analysts remain bearish on price prospects going forward, with Rabobank forecasting CBOT prices down to USD11.75/bu in Q4 of this year, a Reuters survey came up with an average of USD11.56/bu. Today was first notice day on Aug 13 contracts, as expected there were no deliveries registered against either beans or meal, but 846 deliveries against friendless soyoil. The Energy Dept said that soyoil usage in biodiesel production in May fell to 416 million pounds, down from 423 million in April and down from 428 million in the same period a year ago. The USDA reported the sale of 120 TMT of new crop soybeans to unknown. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sale report for beans are 450-600 TMT. New crop Nov 13 beans fell below USD12 for the first time since January 2012, but recovered to close back above that level by the end of play. Aug 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.74, up 24 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.06 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents; Aug 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD435.10, up USD5.90; Aug 13 Soybean Oil closed at 42.09, down 2 points.

Corn: The corn market closed modestly higher for a second session, despite not really having much of a bullish story to hang onto. A firmer wheat market added some support. US weather remains generally non threatening and demand from the US ethanol sector shrank for a fourth week in a row. The Energy Dept said that ethanol output was down to 832,000 barrels/day versus 853,000 bpd a week earlier. Also bearish was news that Lanworth Inc estimated this year's US corn crop at a record 14.0 billion bushels, up from a previous estimate of 13.65 billion - courtesy of a yield increase to 158.5 bu/acre. The USDA are currently at 156.5 bu/acre. They now have the world corn crop at 965.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 956.0 MMT. The EU Commission pegged the corn crop in Europe at 70.9 MMT, up sharply from 58.1 MMT last year and well above the USDA's current estimate of 65.6 MMT. Rabobank forecast CBOT corn prices falling to USD4.60/bu in Q4 of 2013, a Reuters survey averaged USD4.80/bu. Whilst private analysts are forecasting another year of increased soybean acreage in South America, they see much of that extra area coming from corn. Argentina's Agritrend said that the corn planted area there may fall from 4.5 million ha to around 4.2-4.3 million this year. Michael Cordonnier today said that the Brazilian corn area might fall 10-15%. Earlier in the week Safras e Mercado had Brazil's 2013/14 corn crop down 5.4% to 77.57 MMT. South Korea's NOFI cancelled a tender for 70 TMT of corn for Jan shipment saying that they expect prices to fall further. The cheapest offer was apparently from Toepfer at USD234.73 on a C&F basis. FCStone are due out tomorrow with their August US crop production estimates, with Informa due out next week ahead of the USDA's official numbers on Aug 12. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 400-600 TMT. Sep 13 Corn closed at USD4.99, up 3 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.79, up 1 1/2 cents.

Wheat: Wheat posted fairly decent gains on all three exchanges. Whereas the market is thinking that the USDA stocks and production numbers on corn might currently be too low, they think that the opposite might be true for wheat. The USDA surprised the market last month by lowering global wheat ending stocks in the 2012/13 crop year by 5.37 MMT and with those for 2013/14 shrinking by 8.87 MMT to 172.38 MMT, the lowest since 2008/09. Those cuts were made despite leaving unchanged Russian wheat production at 54 MMT and Indian output at 92 MMT. Lanworth Inc today cut their forecast for this year's Russian wheat crop from 50 MMT to 48.4 MMT. The USDA's own attache in India is calling the wheat crop there at only 87 MMT. We also have the new wild card of Chinese demand suddenly outstripping everyone else, making them potentially the largest importer in the world. The USDA did acknowledge that to a degree by increasing Chinese wheat imports in 2013/14 from 3.5 MMT to 8 MMT, but other estimates are now in the 10-15 MMT area. Meanwhile the effects of last week's Brazilian freeze in Parana state are still being assessed. This was "the most intense cold snap in the state since the year 2000 with some areas of the state recording temperatures in the low 20's," according to Michael Cordonnier. He says that state-wide crop losses could be in the 20-30% region, and Parana normally produces around 50% of Brazil's wheat crop. "Before the cold snap, the State Secretary of Agriculture had estimated that 79% of the wheat in the state was in good condition with 4% in poor condition. After the frost, they now estimate that 47% in good condition and 18% in poor condition," he adds. Brazil may need to import more wheat this year than originally expected therefore, and all the above factors potentially cut world wheat stocks further in the year ahead. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 500-700 TMT. Look out for China. Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.64 1/4, up 9 cents; Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.06 3/4, up 10 1/2 cents; Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.41 1/4, up 4 cents.

EU Wheat Consolidates For Second Session

31/07/13 -- EU grains ended the day managing a bit more consolidation from recent losses for a second session. The recent fall to 12-19 month lows in London and Paris wheat has flushed out some buying interest and bargain hunting, even if most of it is being absorbed by Black Sea sellers for the time being.

On the day both Nov 13 and Jan 14 London wheat closed GBP1.75/tonne firmer at GBP164.25/tonne and GBP165.25/tonne respectively whilst Nov 13 Paris wheat settled EUR2.50/tonne higher at EUR190.00/tonne.

The pound fell to its lowest versus the euro since mid-March and a 2-week low versus the US dollar ahead of tonight's Fed announcement regarding interest rates and QE. The BoE and ECB are due to make similar statements tomorrow.

The EU Commission yesterday raised their forecast on EU wheat, barley and corn production for 2013. They now peg the all wheat crop here at 140.2 MMT, up 6.2% on last year's 132.0 MMT. For barley they see an EU-28 crop of 59.4 MM, up 9.8% on last year, and for corn they see production leaping 22% to 70.9 MMT. All three forecasts are well above the current USDA estimates of 138.6 MMT, 56.0 MMT and 65.6 MMT respectively.

Rabobank really threw a spanner in the works with their forecasts for wheat prices going forward. They predict French wheat futures falling to EUR165/tonne in Q4 of this year, declining further to EUR155/tonne in Q1 of 2014 and EUR150 in Q2 of next year. CBOT wheat will slide to USD6.10 by the end of the year and USD5.50 in Q2 of 2014, they estimate.

Large increases in exportable wheat surpluses in the Black Sea region are forecast to result in very aggressive pricing, which is likely to dominate world wheat trade over the coming months, they said.

Strong import demand from China has however provided some strength to the global wheat market amid what is otherwise fundamentally shaping up to be a bearish supply and demand scenario for 2013/14, they added.

They were the first to highlight growing demand from China with a forecast for Chinese imports of 10 MMT back in June when the USDA were still running with an estimate of 3.5 MMT.

Russia's grain harvest now stands at 35.7 MMT off 27.3 % of the planned area, with yields up 26.2% to 2.84 MT/ha. Wheat accounts for 28.7 MMT of that with yields up 27.4% at 3.07 MT/ha say the Russian Ag Ministry.

Ukraine's wheat harvest stands at 19.56 MMT off 90% of the planned area, which suggests a final crop of around 21.5 MMT versus the USDA's current projection of 19.5 MMT.

Whilst there may be plenty of wheat around in 2013/14, quality could be an issue. US wheat has a problem with sprouting by all accounts following heavy rain in June and early July. Agritel say that it's very difficult to find new crop French wheat coming in with a protein level of above 11% at the moment. There's talk of Russian wheat also having low proteins. It was interesting therefore to see Russian offers usurped by Ukraine and Romanian wheat in yesterday's Egyptian tender.

Russian prices are beginning to trend higher and the government is expected to step into the market soon to buy wheat to re-fill depleted domestic reserves.

Aug 13 Paris rapeseed finally went off the board today, having lost more than 20% of it's value since the beginning of June. Canadian canola futures closed at a 33-month low last night amidst forecasts for a record world rapeseed crop this year at a time when demand is slowing and the price outlook for other oilseeds such as soybeans and sunseed is also trending lower.

Headline Of The Day

31/07/13 -- Picked up on the modern day marvel that is Twitter:

Frack the 'desolate' North East, says Tory peer (who lives in the south)

At least they think he said Frack, but as he had six plums and a couple of silver spoons in his mouth at the time it was difficult to tell.

Desolate? He's obviously never been to Middlebrough, or Greggs-land to give it it's proper old English name.

I'm getting the word.......ponce!

EU Rapemeal Prices Extend Slide As Seed Hits Multi-Year Lows

31/07/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent continue to slide. Rapeseed prices in Europe slumped to a 3 year low last night, whilst Canadian canola futures hit a 33-month low.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

Is The Arse About To Fall Out Of The Potash Market?

31/07/13 -- The cynics amongst you might say that this is just another pathetically flimsy excuse just to post a picture of a Brazilian ladies peachy lycra-clad bottom, but that's not true. There's serious journalistic intent here.

In lieu of not having a picture of potash in my files, I've been forced, as a last resort, to use a picture of a Brazilian ladies derriere instead, much as I am loath to come across as some sort of sexist deviant who thinks of women as little more than stupid bimbo sex objects.

According to an article in the Daily Bellylaugh the arse might be about to fall out of the world potash market following a bit of a spat between Uralkali and its Belarus-based partner Belaruskali, who between them control almost half of the world market for potash, they say.

The notion that prices could fall 25% as a result of the tiff appears to subliminally suggest that prices have been deliberately inflated wouldn't it? I can't believe that this sort of thing goes on, surely?

Read all about it here: The end of the (potash) world is nigh

My eternal thanks to Tim Porter at GH Grain by the way for the "send your buddy some titties" email this morning, which I will be pleased to pass onto the first ten people to request it. Male of female, just to prove there's no bias here, not on this blog.

Chicago Mixed, Soy Down, Corn And Wheat Higher

30/07/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans fell sharply despite the USDA announcing a sale of 290,000 MT of new crop US soybeans to unknown. Some of the selling on front month Aug 13 may have been linked to tomorrow being first notice day on the contract. There's talk that China may have bought a cargo of western Canadian beans for Nov shipment. India’s Agriculture Commissioner estimated India’s soybean crop at a record 14.7 MMT. Michael Cordonnier estimated 2013 US bean yields at 42.0 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous estimate. All eyes remain focused on the US weather. "Eastern Midwest soybeans still have the potential to make a very good crop. Illinois, Indiana and Ohio all reported at least 70% good-excellent soybeans in late July. Soybeans are most resistant to drought than corn, hanging on and waiting for rain. If soaking rains develop in August, the key pod-filling stage, a favourable yield may occur," said Martell Crop Projections. However, "the new 5-day forecast is way drier than yesterday, a dramatic reversal on the part of the GFS model. The forecast now calls or mostly dry conditions in the Midwest, though Nebraska and SW Iowa may get meaningful rain. Scattered rains up to 0.60 inch are also possible also in the Great Lakes region. Otherwise, the Midwest outlook is dry. I cannot remember a period when the GFS model was so erratic," they added. Aug 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.50, down 17 1/2 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.03, down 17 cents; Aug 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD429.20, down USD9.70; Aug 13 Soybean Oil closed at 42.11, down 36 points.

Corn: The corn market managed a little short-covering recovery after six down days. South Korea bought 50 TMT of Black Sea origin corn for Jan shipment at USD233.44 C&F (equivalent of GBP152.57). The Brazilian vessel line-up apparently shows 3 corn boats heading to the US. Safras e Mercado yesterday forecast Brazil's 2013/14 corn crop falling from 82.0 MMT this season to 77.57 MMT. They said that 1st corn will decline from 33.05 MMT to 29.28 MMT and 2nd crop corn from 45.2 MMT to 42.46 MMT. The Ukraine State Weather Centre said that the corn crop there would be "at least" 25 MMT this year versus 20.9 MMT last year, helped by plantings rising 13.6% from 4.4 million ha to 5.0 million ha. On the US weather front "rainfall increased last week in the Midwest, but these were hit-or-miss showers. Corn improved where rains occurred but deteriorated where it stayed dry. Nationally 63% of corn made the good-excellent grade, identical to a week ago. July pollinating conditions have been dry in all 4 leading corn states Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and Minnesota," said Martell Crop Projections. "July rainfall to date ranks among the driest in 35 years with only 2.4 inches in the corn belt. Corn has been subsisting on stored ground moisture. June was very wet, otherwise crop conditions would be far worse," they added. Michael Cordonnier estimated 2013 US corn yields at 153.0 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous estimate. The weekly ethanol report is out tomorrow. That's been steadily falling in recent weeks, from 881,000 barrels/day three weeks ago, to 876,000 bpd two weeks ago and only 853,000 bpd last week. The bulls will be hoping for a reversal of that trend, and may likely get it if recent reports of more physically available domestic corn suddenly coming onto the market are correct. Sep 13 Corn closed at USD4.95 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.77 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat closed higher on all three exchanges on strong world demand. China's CNGOIC said that the country had bought 1.5 MMT of Australian wheat in the past 6 weeks. It is thought that they've already bought 3.45 MMT of US wheat, along with smaller quantities of French and Canadian wheat, bringing their total known purchases so far for 2013/14 to over 5.5 MMT. Taiwan bought 97,200 MT of US wheat for August Sept shipment. Japan lifted its ban on importing US western white wheat. They then issued their normal Tuesday tender, looking for 178 TMT of US, Canadian and Australian wheat, the tender also included almost 90 TMT of US western white wheat. Egypt bought 240 TMT of Ukraine and Romanian wheat in its fourth tender of the month. South Korea's NOFI bought 50 TMT of Black Sea origin wheat for Jan shipment and are negotiation another cargo for Jan shipment. There's talk that Brazil may need to buy up to 1 MMT of US HRW wheat as their own crop has been hit by frost and Argentina has nothing to sell until they bring in their 2013/14 crop at the end of the year. Dryness in Western Australia means that wheat production in the state will only make 8.5 MMT "at best" according to one local analyst. ABARES currently estimate the crop there at 8.8 MMT versus only 6.9 MMT in last years drought-hit crop. Production in WA would normally be expected to be around 10 MMT. The Andersons are reporting quality problems in US SRW wheat due to heavy rains in the beginning of July. Sprouted wheat is said to be the worst in some areas for more than 20 years. There are also reports of quality problems with Russian wheat, whilst early harvested crops in France and Germany are said to be displaying low protein levels. Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.55 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.96 1/4, up 6 cents; Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.37 1/4, up 3 cents.

EU Wheat Consolidates, Production Estimates Keep Rising Though

30/07/13 -- EU wheat closed firmer for a change, in consolidation mode following recent declines to one year lows in the case of London wheat and 19-month lows for Paris wheat.

Nov 13 London wheat ended the day GBP1.50/tonne firmer at GBP162.50/tonne and with Jan 14 closing up GBP0.50/tonne at GBP163.50/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat rose EUR1.25/tonne to close at EUR187.50/tonne.

Friendless Aug Paris rapeseed ended EUR4.50/tonne easier at EUR342.00/tonne - the lowest level on the front month continuous chart since July 2010. The contract will be put out of its misery when it goes off the board tomorrow.

The EU Commission raised their forecast for EU soft wheat production from the 128.9 MMT predicted last month to 131.7 MMT. They've also increased their barley estimate from 58.3 MMT to 59.4 MMT and upped their corn number from 69.7 MMT to 70.9 MMT.

The wheat number is actually lower than some of the other estimates around, French analysts Strategie Grains forecast production at 133.4 MMT earlier in the month and Toepfer went even higher at 134.2 MMT. The Commission's barley and corn estimates however are substantially higher than Strategie Grains forecasts of 57.3 MMT and 65.9 MMT respectively.

Oil World forecast the EU oilseed rape crop at 20.5 MMT, up slightly from last month and a 5.7% increase on the 19.4 MMT produced in 2012. Output is led by Germany with an anticipated crop of 5.8 MMT, up almost 21% on last year. The French crop will fall 9% to 5.0 MMT, with UK production seen down 23% to 2.0 MMT off a harvested area of 610,000 ha, they say. Poland will leapfrog the UK into third place in the European production table with a crop of 2.4 MMT, up more than 26% versus 2012.

The German Ag Ministry estimated Germany’s 2013 wheat crop at 23.24 MMT (versus 22.4 MMT in 2012), with barley at 10.09 MMT (vs. 10.39 MMT) and rapeseed production at 5.41 MMT (vs. 4.8 MMT).

New Ensus owners CropEnergies AG said that they expect to re-open the troubled Teesside plant in the autumn. They clearly haven't bought it to keep it in mothballs, which is good news for wheat growers.

Egypt booked 240 TMT of Ukraine and Romanian wheat in its fourth tender of the month, taking the total bought in July to 960 TMT. It was interesting to see even Russian wheat overlooked.

The Russian harvest now stands at 34.9 MMT off 26.6% of the planned area with yields averaging 2.84 MT/ha, an increase of 22.4% on last year. Wheat accounts for 28.4 MMT of that total. Agritel said that "The dry spell in May/June impacted test weights of wheat. In Rostov, Krasnodar, Stavropol, only 35% of the wheat will comply with milling standards."

Ukraine's early grain harvest (excluding corn) totals 26.6 MMT, including 19.56 MMT of wheat and 6.2 MMT of barley. They've also harvested 2.16 MMT of rapeseed versus a crop of only 1.4 MMT in 2012.

Is There A Chink Of Light At The End Of The Tunnel For Wheat?

30/07/13 -- Most of us are hearing that the early French wheat harvest is throwing up some low proteins, also a bit of stuff has been cut in Germany with similar results, although it's early days yet.

My chum Rudy at Bloomberg said on Twitter yesterday that he'd "Hitched ride on combine in Nievre. After 4 days harvesting soft wheat yield normal, spec 80 kg/hl, protein 9.5-10% where normally 11.5%!"

Now this morning I read from Agritel "The dry spell in May/June impacted test weight of wheat. In Rostov, Krasnodar, Stavropol, only 35% of the wheat will comply with milling standards."

There seems to be a problem with US wheat quality too by all accounts.

And China are buying wheat BIG TIME.

Another friend at Bloomberg, the lovely Whitney, has kindly done the research for me and says that China are confirmed to have bought 3.45 MMT of US wheat so far for 2013/14 shipment. The Chinese think tank CNGOIC are today saying that they bought 1.5 MMT of Australian wheat in the past six weeks. About a month ago they were reported to have bought 275 TMT of French wheat. They're supposed to have been buying Canadian wheat too (one report I've found says 295 TMT).

Add that lot up and you get over 5.5 MMT already.

Reuters today say that 16% of their winter wheat crop is only suitable for feed. The Chinese Stats Bureau estimate the 2013 winter wheat crop at 115.7 MMT, and 16% of that is 18.5 MMT.

Meanwhile as long ago as last February my US weather chum Gail Martell flagged up that China's 2012 wheat crop may only have been around 108 MMT, according to the USDA attaché in Beijing - far less than the USDA's official figure of 121 MMT. Chinese wheat consumption is currently estimated at around 125 MMT per annum.

Interesting stuff, n'est pas? Did you like my Chink of light pun too? I stayed up all night thinking that one up.

Have I told you my Cliff Richard goes to China joke? Where he's met off the plane by the chairman of the Cliff Richard Fan Club (Beijing Branch) and his wife?

The chairman says "Welcome to China, Criff. Me number one fan for you in China, Criff."

"Me have all your record, Criff. My favourite is Conraturations, and cererations, when I tell everyone that you're in ruv with me."

"Thanks very much," says Cliff. "What about your wife, she's very quiet, does she have any of my records too?" enquires the youthful one.

"Oh, Criff, she have itch sore fanny," comes the reply.

"Oh dear, I'm erm sorry to hear that," says a caring Cliff.

"No Criff, you no understand, she have Itchy sore fanny, why we don't talk any more.."

I'll get me coat.

EU Rapemeal Values Decline Further

30/07/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower once again. As nearby July comes into line with new crop, prices there have fallen EUR40/tonne in a week. Nov/Jan is down EUR20/tonne versus last Tuesday.

Oil World have increased their forecast for the EU rapeseed crop to 20.5 MMT. German output is estimated up almost 21% to 5.8 MMT, with production in Poland expected to jump more than 26% to 2.4 MMT, demoting the UK into 4th place in the EU rapeseed production table.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

The Morning News Round

30/07/13 -- The overnight market sees beans and meal mixed, corn around 3-4 cents higher and wheat up 5-7 cents.

Supporting wheat is news that Japan has rescinded it's ban on importing US western white wheat, which has been in place for two months now following the Oregon GMO scare. They say that they've finalised a GMO testing protocol and will obviously now be monitoring US shipments for traces of the same.

Japan have issued their normal Tuesday tender today, looking for 178 TMT of US, Canadian and Australian wheat, the tender also includes almost 90 TMT of US western white wheat.

Other supportive news for wheat this morning includes China's CNGOIC saying that the country has bought 1.5 MMT of Australian wheat in the past six weeks. Reuters have fine tuned the estimated 10-20% of the Chinese winter wheat crop downgraded as being only suitable for feed usage to a more precise 16%.

China's Statistics Bureau estimate this year's winter wheat crop at 115.7 MMT, and 16% of that equals to 18.5 MMT.

Egypt are back in the market tendering for wheat, their fourth tender this month after doing nothing in the Mar-June period. The results should be known later today.

Taiwan have bought 97,200 MT of US wheat overnight.

The EU Commission have raised their forecast for EU soft wheat production from the 128.9 MMT predicted last month to 131.7 MMT. They've also increased their barley estimate from 58.3 MMT to 59.4 MMT and upped their corn number from 69.7 MMT to 70.9 MMT.

The Ukraine State Weather Centre say that the country will produce at least 25 MMT of corn this year versus 20.9 MMT in 2012. Yields are seen rising 8.6% to 5.2 MT/ha, although that's well short of the 2011 record of 6.44 MT/ha. A sharp increase in planted area, up 13.6% from 4.4 million ha to 5.0 million ha is also behind the increase.

As the US winter wheat harvest enters the final lap with 19% of the crop left to be cut, sprouting following heavy rains earlier in the month is said to be a fairly big issue this year.

Oil World have increased their EU rapeseed production estimate from 20.4 MMT to 20.5 MMT, up 5.7% on the 19.4 MMT produced last year. They have the German crop at 5.8 MMT, with France at 5.0 MMT and the UK at 2.0 MMT.

Chicago Mixed, Outlook For Bumper 2013 Crops Weighs

29/07/13 -- Soycomplex: The recent capitulation of the front end Aug 13 beans and meal would appear to have finally flushed out some buying interest. The outlook for a bumper 2013 US soybean crop keeps the forwards under pressure though, as the weather forecast offers little in the way of threats for the time being, although the significantly cooler than normal temperatures across the Midwest may slow crop development a little. With much of the crop late planted as well, this could push the harvest back a bit more. Predictably, this already has one or two flicking back through the record books to find out when the earliest freeze has come in previous years after the mercury in Minnesota dropped into the low 40's over the weekend. The answer for that particular state is apparently Aug 24th. "Below-average temperatures are expected to continue this week in the Midwest. Mid 70's F for highs and 50's-low 60's F for the lows would be the rule. Unusual coolness is due to a blocking pattern in the high latitudes over Canada, diverting the jet stream south of its normal position. Waves of light-moderate showers are predicted across the Upper Midwest in an unstable, humid atmosphere. Scattered locations may receive up to 0.75 inch of rainfall. This would further improve corn and soybeans in dry areas of Iowa, southern Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Illinois. However, with cool temperatures also expected to continue, crop development would fall further behind," said Martell Crop Projections. Looking a little further ahead AgRural said that given normal weather conditions Brazil could produce a record 89.1 MMT of soybeans in 2013/14. That's 9% up on this year, boosted by a 6% rise in planted area. Safras e Mercado concur, with an early prediction of 88.17 MMT versus 81.65 MMT in 2012/13. After the close the USDA cut US soybean good/excellent crop conditions one point to 63%, although that's well above only 29% a year ago. They said that 20% of the crop is setting pods versus 34% for the 5-year average, with 65% of the crop blooming compared to 74% normally. Weekly soybean export inspections came in at only 1.342 million bushels versus 3.916 million last week. Aug 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.67 1/2, up 17 3/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.20, down 8 1/2 cents; Aug 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD438.90, up USD8.60; Aug 13 Soybean Oil closed at 42.47, down 111 points and the lowest for a front month since September 2010.

Corn: Unlike soybeans, there was no rebound for old crop corn futures today. Trade talk suggests that a lot of old crop corn came onto the market last week, much more than most realised was still out there unsold on farm. This has prompted talk that maybe the USDA has under-estimated 2012/13 US corn ending stocks. As you would expect at this time of year, the US weather continues dominate proceedings, and that generally maintains a non threatening outlook although most would like it to be a bit warmer. "While the recent rainfall was beneficial for drought stressed corn and soybean, exceptional coolness has slowed down crop development. Maximum temperatures Saturday were only 60's F in Wisconsin, Minnesota and eastern Iowa and 15-20 F below average. Strong cooling is a set-back for corn and soybean development in the Upper Midwest especially due to severe planting delays in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and North Dakota," said Martell Crop Projections. "Showers developed overnight in Nebraska the driest of the main corn states. A trough of low pressure is developing. This would promote 1-1.5 inches of rainfall over the next 5 days. Kansas is expecting super-heavy rainfall, up to 4 inches. The wet forecast is significant, since both states presently are severely dry. Kansas corn deteriorated to only 31% good-excellent in the July 21 report from the USDA. Nebraska, the 3rd biggest US corn state, declined to 66% good-excellent, down from 78% on July 1," they added. After the close the USDA left US corn crop conditions completely unchanged from last week, with 63% of the crop rated good/excellent. There were some inter-state changes, Kansas good/excellent rose to 33%, but Nebraska fell to 63%. The USDA said that 72% of the crop is silking, not too far below the 5-year average of 75%, with 8% of the crop at the dough stage compared to 17% normally. Weekly export inspections came in at 11.087 million bushels versus 9.958 million the previous week. Safras e Mercado estimated the Brazilian 2013/14 corn crop at 77.57 MMT, down 5.4% on 82.0 MMT this year. The Ukraine Weather Centre estimated their corn crop as being "at least" 25 MMT versus 20.9 MMT in 2012/13. Sep 13 Corn closed at USD4.89 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.73 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat was narrowly mixed on all three exchanges. The Russian Ag Ministry cut their grain production forecast for 2013 from 95 MMT to 90-94 MMT. The wheat harvest there is 36% complete at 27.8 MMT. Trade estimates for final Russian wheat production vary widely, from 45 MMT at the low end to 54 MMT at the upper end of the scale from the frequently optimistic USDA. Weekly export inspections were strong at 25.363 million bushels versus 24.185 million last week. That takes the cumulative total for the current marketing year to 186.245 million bushels versus only 146.981 million a year ago. Iraq are tendering for a nominal 50 TMT of wheat on the international market, but are generally expected to buy more. Iraq normally imports around 3 MMT of wheat annually, most of which is high quality and high protein hard wheat from Australia, Germany, and the US. Jordan are also tendering for 100 TMT of optional origin wheat. Following the recent GMO scare, there's talk that Japan may resume buying US western white wheat as early as this week or next week. They usually tender on Tuesdays and generally buy around 800 TMT of western white wheat a year. China are said to be continuing to enquire and/or be buying US HRW wheat. Local reports suggest that Brazil may have lost 5% of it's wheat crop due to frost last week. In the state of Parana, which produces around half of the national wheat crop, there was a frost on four nights in a row last week. Around half the crop there was/is said to be at the flowering or grain formation stage. There's talk of wheat being in oversold territory, leaving it susceptible to a short-covering bounce. Friday's Commitment of Traders report shows trend-following funds holding a net short position of 81,655 contracts in CBOT wheat, up 14,753 on the week. The record net short position held by these traders is 97,259 contracts. After the close the USDA estimated US winter wheat harvesting at 81%, up from 75% a week ago, and almost in line with the 5-year average of 82% complete. Spring wheat headed advanced from 85% last week to 94%, again almost in line with "normal" of 95%. Spring wheat crop conditions good/excellent were unchanged at 68%, although there was a shift of 2 points from excellent into good. Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.51 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents; Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.90 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents; Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.34 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents.

EU Wheat Down Again, Russia/Ukraine Influence Weighs

29/07/13 -- EU grains were lower again, with Aug 13 Paris wheat falling to a new lowest level for a front month since Dec 2011. The Nov 13 London wheat future ended at its worst in over a year too.

London wheat closed with front month Nov 13 GBP1.75/tonne lower at GBP161.00/tonne, Jan 14 was GBP1.10/tonne easier at GBP163.00/tonne and Nov 13 Paris wheat fell EUR1.50/tonne to EUR186.25/tonne.

Paris rapeseed took yet another stunning thrashing, it's almost two weeks since that closed higher, with the soon to expire Aug 13 down EUR10.25/tonne to EUR346.50/tonne. This demise isn't just solely confined to a technical nearby position however, Nov 13 was EUR5.75/tonne lower at EUR358.00/tonne.

The French wheat crop was 14% harvested as of last Monday, according to figures released Friday from FranceAgriMer. Local analysts say that yields and test weights are around average at this early stage. Protein levels are however said to be low, but that they may still be OK to meet export requirement levels.

Early French spring barley harvesting is also underway, with yields said to be good, but protein levels there are also said to be lacking.

The ongoing Russian and Ukraine harvest is weighing heavily on EU grains.

The Russian grain harvest is now at 33.6 MMT, as of Friday. Yields are said to be almost 24% more than a year ago at 2.85 MT/ha. Wheat accounts for 27.8 MMT of production so far, with yields at 3.07 MT/ha, up 24.8 % versus last year.

Trade estimates for the Russian wheat crop are still highly diverse, ranging from 45-54 MMT. Everyone is expecting spring wheat yields to drop off sharply once harvesting of that begins however.

Russian wheat prices are currently said to be around USD252/tonne (circa GBP164/tonne) for 12.5% milling wheat, with 11.5% milling wheat at USD245/tonne (below GBP160/tonne), FOB the Black Sea.

Ukraine said that they'd exported 867 TMT of grains so far this month (to Friday 26 Jul), including 449 TMT of barley, 272 TMT of corn and 143 TMT of wheat. They've also exported 167 TMT of OSR during the period, they added.

Iraq are tendering for 50 TMT of wheat, but generally buy far more. They have said that they will now consider importing French wheat following a visit to France last month by an Iraqi trade delegation.

Kazakhstan will harvest a 15 MMT of grains this year, according to local analysts KazAgro. That isn't a great deal more than the 14.7 MMT produced last year, and way below output of 26.9 MMT in 2011, they said.

Kazakh grain exports in 2013/14 will reach 7 MMT, according to the local Ag Ministry, less than half those of 2011/12.

EU Rapemeal Prices

29/07/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed, lower nearby and a bit firmer further forward, essentially taking away some more of this front-end premium much as soymeal has been doing in Chicago in recent sessions.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

The Morning Vibe

29/07/13 -- The overnight Globex grains are lower across most of the board, with beans down 10-14 cents, meal off USD3-4, corn around 2-3 cents weaker and wheat pretty much flat.

Dec 13 corn is down to its lowest levels since Nov 2010 as US weather continues with the non threatening theme. Aug 13 beans are at a more than 1-year low meanwhile.

Jordan are tendering to buy 100 TMT of wheat. South Korea are tendering for 140 TMT of optional origin corn for Jan shipment.

A report on Reuters suggests that as much as 10% of the wheat crop in Parana in southern Brazil, which produces around half of the nation's crop, may have been "destroyed" by frosts on four consecutive days last week.

It's been mooted for a while that Brazil will need to turn to North America for wheat this year, at least until Argentina harvest their crop at the end of the year.

There's an interesting story on Agrimoney this morning regarding the concerns of the UK's largest rapeseed crusher, ADM, over the potential uneven quality of this year's domestic rapeseed crop here: 50 Shades Of Green

Rising wheat and flour prices in Pakistan mean that the country will need to step up their foreign purchases to substitute domestic supplies earmarked for export to Iran as a long-delayed deal on the latter is finally expected to be concluded within weeks, according to the finance ministry. Pakistan are said to owe Iran USD53 million for electricity that it has very little means of paying for.

Russia's grain harvest is now at 33.6 MMT off more than a quarter of the planned area, with yields said to be up almost 24%. Wheat accounts for 27.8 MMT of that and barley 3.1 MMT.

Ukraine say that they've exported 867 TMT of grains in the Jul 1-26 period, including 449 TMT of barley, 272 TMT of corn and 143 TMT of wheat. They've also shipped 167 TMT of OSR in the period.

With the French wheat crop said to be 14% harvested as of last Monday, test weights and yields are said to be average, but protein levels are on the low side.

According to the NOAA, this past weekend tied for the 2nd coolest July Chicago weekend ever with average temps of just 60.8 degrees F. No heat stress then, how long before they start talking of an early frost?

Fitch have apparently cut China's credit rating a notch this morning, the first such cut by a major agency since 1999.

The Rain In Spain

29/07/13 -- Has been falling mainly where there's grain it would seem, for our Spanish chums are in for their largest grain crop in more than 20 years, according to the local Cooperatives Agro-Alimentarias Group.

In a country dogged by habitual drought an unseasonably wet winter, followed by the 5th wettest spring since 1947, means that this year's grain harvest could soar 54% to 23.9 MMT this year, they say.

They have the Spanish soft wheat crop at 6.92 MMT, which combined with durum output of 1.01 MMT makes for an all wheat crop of 7.94 MMT up by two thirds compared to output of only 4.76 MMT last year.

Spring barley production, of which Spain is Europe's largest grower, will rise almost 74% to 9.83 MMT, whilst corn output is seen  increasing by a more modest 13.6% to 4.33 MMT, they add.

Both the wheat and barley production estimates are well above the USDA's current forecasts of 6.90 MMT and 8.40 MMT respectively.

The rain may be a mixed blessing though, with low protein potentially a problem in the north of the country.

Spain of course are generally a major soft wheat importer, and in a "normal" year would be the UK's largest wheat buyer.