Nogger's Blog

Chicago Close - Friday

04/05/12 -- Soybeans: May 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.75, up 6 1/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.66 3/4, down 1 cent; May 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD432.10, up USD6.90; May 12 Soybean Oil closed at 53.30, down 50 points. Beans closed at or near the highs of the day at the end of a pretty volatile and choppy session. For the week old crop May 12 beans fell 21 3/4 cents, with new crop Nov 12 gaining 4 3/4 cents. May meal gained USD4.70 and May soybean oil fell 188 points. The USDA announced the sale of 120,000 MT of new crop beans to unknown today, bringing sales to unknown/China to 886,000 MT for the week. Informa Economics estimated Brazilian soybean production at 66 MMT - the same as the USDA. However they cut their Argentine production estimate to 40 MMT, in line with other trade predictions but fully 5 MMT below the USDA's April number. They increased their US 2012 soybean acreage estimate from 75.1 million to 75.8 million, almost 2 million more than the USDA forecast last month.

Corn: May 12 Corn closed at USD6.62 1/4, up 11 1/2 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.24 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents. Corn has done the opposite to beans this week, with old crop and new crop growing ever further apart. On the week overall May 12 corn gained 9 1/2 cents whilst Dec 12 fell 14 1/2 cents. The USDA announced the sale of 116,000 MT of new crop corn to South Korea and 240,000 MT to Mexico today. Informa pegged US spring corn plantings at 96.1 million acres, 0.2 million higher than the USDA said last month and 4.2 million up on last year. They also pegged Brazil's corn crop at 66 MMT which is 4 MMT more than the USDA forecast. Argentine corn production was estimated at 21.5 MMT, similar to the USDA. A USD4/barrel collapse in the price of crude oil following a poor jobs report and an OPEC announcement that they are pumping much more oil than official targets demand weighed on the market.

Wheat: May 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.03 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents; May 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.13 3/4, down 7 cents; May 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.40, down 3 cents. For the week Chicago wheat was 38 1/2 cents lower, Kansas fell 32 3/4 cents and Minneapolis 34 cents. Finishing at USD6.09 1/2 new crop Jul 12 CBOT wheat set a contract lifetime closing low. Reports of potentially record yield potential from the Kansas wheat tour and that Oklahoma is likely to see it's output more than double in 2012 according to the Oklahoma Wheat Commission was bearish for new crop. Informa increased their US winter wheat production estimate to 45 MMT, up 0.6 MMT from last month and 4.3 MMT above output in 2011. They also pegged the spring wheat area at 13.5 million acres, some 1.5 million higher than the USDA estimated last month.

EU Wheat Mostly Lower As Large US Harvest Looms

04/05/12 -- EU grains finished mostly lower with May 12 London wheat closing down GBP5.00/tonne at GBP172.00/tonne, and Nov 12 falling GBP1.85/tonne to GBP149.50/tonne. May 12 Paris market rose EUR2.50/tonne to EUR220.00/tonne and new crop Nov 12 fell EUR3.00/tonne to EUR195.75/tonne.

May 12 London wheat was down GBP6.50/tonne on the week, with new crop Nov 12 falling GBP6.10/tonne. Conversely May 12 Paris wheat rose EUR6.30/tonne compared with last Friday, whilst Nov 12 fell EUR7.00/tonne.

For May 12 London wheat this was the lowest close in more than three weeks, for new crop Nov 12 it was the lowest close since late February.

Paris rapeseed futures also fell hard, closing with losses of around EUR7-10/tonne on ideas that April rains and cooler temperatures have boosted Western Europe's chances of salvaging a decent crop this year and forecasts for similar conditions to move into Eastern Europe this weekend.

US wheat prospects are looking good with a sharp rebound in production in the top producing states of Kansas and Oklahoma on the cards. Crops are well forward too, with one report coming through today of harvesting having already started in Oklahoma 3-4 weeks ahead of schedule.

Both states are expected to have their biggest wheat crops since 2003.

US analytical firm Informa Economics today estimated the 2012 US winter wheat crop at 45 MMT, an increase of more than 10% on last year. In addition they pegged spring wheat plantings at 13.5 million acres, 1.5 million above the USDA's latest estimate.

Corn plantings in the US are also seen rising this year, to 96.1 million acres according to Informa which is 0.2 million more than the USDA most recently said.

Outside markets were also a bearish influence, with Brent crude falling through key support levels and US oil shedding more than 4% on the day to trade below USD100/barrel for the first time since February. The euro slumped to its lowest levels against the pound since June 2010 ahead of nervousness ahead of weekend elections in France and Greece.

EU Rapemeal Prices

04/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are down for a second day today. Recent rains in Western Europe are hoped to have improved rapeseed production prospects for 2012. Hot and dry Eastern Europe is also set for a cool down and a decent shot of rain across the weekend and into the early part of next week.

Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day:

If I Could Turn Back Time

04/05/12 -- If the CME Group could turn back time then they would probably want to start the week all over again and not rush out an announcement that they were going to introduce 22-hour a day trading on the electronic Globex market for the convenience of international investors starting Mon 14th May.

The necessary regulatory approval that they need to introduce the new trading hours from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission apparently hadn't been given at the time of the announcement.

Consequently, presumably at the inconvenience of international investors, 22-hour trading now won't begin until May 21st.

Morning Snippets

04/05/12 -- Awash with wheat India are said to be looking at offloading up to 10 MMT of their surplus stocks to make room for a record new crop harvest of around 91 MMT.

Ever one for a deal, the Indians are said to be eyeing up friendless Iran as a possible buyer of up to 4 MMT of wheat. No doubt hiding behind a thin veil of "humanitarianism" it will not have escaped India's notice that Iran will pay top dollar for what is probably some pretty ropey old Indian wheat that's been stored in half open sacks in a field protected from the elements by a thick crust of rat droppings for the last twelve months.

The top US wheat state, Kansas, looks like it's in for a bumper crop this year judging by the findings of this season's crop tour. Second placed neighbour, Oklahoma, is also likely to see it's output more than double in 2012 according to the Oklahoma Wheat Commission. Harvesting in both is expected to be underway by the end of the month.

Algeria bought 120,000 MT of US wheat yesterday. With old crop prices in Europe around 25-30% more expensive than in the US, EU-27 soft wheat exports are almost a third down on where we were last year at 11.5 MMT.

The FAO peg world wheat production at 675 MMT in 2012, around 3% down on last year depending on who's figures you go with. Global corn output meanwhile is seen up around 6% to a record 916 MMT, which is almost a hundred million more than the world was producing as recently as 2009/10.

Chicago Closing Comments - Thursday

03/05/12 -- Soybeans: May 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.68 3/4, down 11 1/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.67 3/4, down 1/2 cent; May 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD425.20, down USD3.30; May 12 Soybean Oil closed at 53.80, down 53 points. Funds sold an estimated 8,000 soybean contracts on the day on what appeared to be consolidation and profit-taking following recent rises and ahead of next week's USDA WASDE report. Weekly export sales of 598,000 MT of old crop and 1,134,000 MT of new crop beat expectations for combined sales of 0.9-1.4 MMT. China and "unknown" were featured buyers as per usual. The USDA also reported 232,000 MT of new crop soybean sales to China today under the daily reporting system. New crop sales have reached 328.9 million bushels so far, well ahead of the 246.9 million for the same week last year.

Corn: May 12 Corn closed at USD6.50 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.29 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents. Weekly corn export sales of close to 3.5 MMT, whilst huge, were already largely known by the market. Tight old crop stocks versus the prospect of an early harvest and possible record production sees the old crop/new crop spread widening. The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange left their forecast for Argentine corn production unchanged at 19.8 MMT. Production prospects in Brazil are seen improving however courtesy of an increased second crop. Informa Economics are due to release updated acreage numbers tomorrow ahead of the USDA's WASDE report next week. The latter will include their first estimates on 2012/13 crop production in the US and around the globe.

Wheat: May 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.08 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents; May 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.20 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents; May 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.43, down 1 1/2 cents. Weekly export sales of 256,700 MT old crop and 454,800 MT new crop were in line with trade expectations for combined sales of 600-850 TMT. The last day of the Kansas wheat tour concluded with an estimated record 49.1 bu/acre yield and a projected crop of 403.9 million bushels, the largest since 2003 and up 46% on the 276.5 million bushels produced last year. Kansas is the largest US wheat producing state, typically accounting for around a quarter of national production. Neighbouring Oklahoma is also said to be looking at a significantly better crop this year.

EU Wheat Close

03/05/12 -- EU grains finished mostly lower. Technical May 12 London wheat finished up GBP2.75/tonne at GBP177.00/tonne, making it now a curious GBP5.50/tonne premium to July. The more liquid new crop Nov 12 fell GBP2.40/tonne to close at GBP151.35/tonne. May 12 Paris wheat ended EUR0.25/tonne lower at EUR217.50/tonne, whilst Nov 12 was EUR3.00/tonne weaker at EUR198.75/tonne.

Frankly, London wheat is becoming more and more of a joke, having less correlation to the physical market than ever. It remains to be seen how much longer this charade can carry on for with a new Black Sea wheat future set to begin trading next month.

FranceAgriMer say that the soft wheat crop there is now rated 65% good/excellent, up two percentage points on a week following plentiful April rains.

Brussels issued 164TMT of soft wheat export licences this week, down by more than a quarter on last week.

With only 8 weeks to go to the end of the marketing year, EU-27 soft wheat exports are down by almost a third on year ago levels, a situation unlikely to improve given current unadvantageous pricing structures.

The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that Ukraine exported 17.8 MMT of grains from July 1st through to May 3rd, an 80% increase on a year ago. They also added that they will export 2.0-2.2 MMT/month in May-Jun, bringing the entire 2011/12 marketing year exports to around 22 MMT.

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation say that world wheat production in the coming season will come in at 675 MMT, 3.6% down on last year but broadly in line with other estimates from the likes of the IGC who said 676 MMT late last month.

Early Call On Chicago

03/05/12 -- The overnight gains saw a bit of consolidation for wheat which closed with modest 3-5 cent gains, corn and beans were mixed. Crude is slightly easier and the dollar a tad stronger.

The USDA's weekly export sales report came in at 1,331,900 MT on old crop corn and 2,140,300 MT for new crop, in line with expectations for a combined 3-4 MMT. Much of this was previously reported business under the daily reporting system with China taking 214,000 MT of the old crop and 172,500 MT of the new crop. We also have a large 509,500 MT of the old crop going to "unknown" along with 1,920,000 MT of the new crop to the same.

For soybeans we had sales of 598,000 MT of old crop and 1,134,000 MT of new crop beating expectations for combined sales of 0.9-1.4 MMT. China accounted for 117,300 MT of the old crop and 675,000 MT of the new crop. Unknown took 147,500 MT and 394,000 MT respectively.

Wheat sales were 256,700 MT old crop and 454,800 MT new crop against expectations for combined sales of 600-850 TMT.

The corn sales, whilst huge, were already in the market. It will be interesting to see the market reaction to this today, as the trade did a pretty good job of selling the fact last week. Soybean sales beat expectations, with another significant slug of old crop included to further tighten the balance sheet.

Bang on cue, the USDA have today reported 232,000 MT of new crop soybean sales to China today under the daily reporting system.

If I was going to be long one of the big three then it would still be soybeans for me. China are going to buy what, 58 MMT of them this year? That makes their corn import requirements look pretty insignificant doesn't it? Rival soybean harvests are a very long way off, but competing wheat harvesting is not very far away at all with corn somewhere in between. We will also be seeing potentially record US corn production in 2012 along with significant increased plantings in Ukraine and other pasrt of Eastern Europe.

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation say that world wheat production in the coming season will come in at 675 MMT, 3.6% down on last year. World soybean production for 2011/2 will fall 9.5% to 240 MMT, one of the steepest year on year declines on record, they add.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 2-4 cents, wheat up 3-5 cents, soybeans down 2-3 cents.

The Word On The Streets

03/05/12 -- Last night's fairly steep decline in Chicago grains & soybeans may have been exaggerated by the surprise announcement from the CME Group that with almost immediate effect (ie Monday) local traders/non-hedgers will now have to stump up the same margin calls as commercials/speculators.

Until now these smaller operators have been able to participate in the market at preferential lower margin rates to help them swim with the big fish.

This may have encouraged some of the minnows to exit their positions ahead of next week's change of rules, it is being debated.

EU Rapemeal Prices

03/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply lower in line with Chicago soymeal declines last night.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

The Early Vibe

03/05/12 -- Firstly it's interesting to note new crop Jul 12 Chicago wheat setting fresh 2012 lows and taking out the lows of 2011 last night.

Against that, European wheat looks expensive. Our own new crop Nov 12 London wheat is currently GBP17.75/tonne, or 13%, above it's low of 2011. Nov 12 Paris wheat is EUR31.00/tonne, or 18%, above its 2011 low.

Day two of the Kansas wheat tour didn't encounter the record yield potential of day one as the survey moved to the drier south. They did however end up with an average yield of 43.7 bushels an acre across a survey of 286 fields, versus 33.4 bushels an acre on day two last year.

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation say that world wheat production in the coming season will come in at 675 MMT, 3.6% down on last year and broadly in line with other estimates from the likes of the IGC who said 676 MMT late last month.

There's been a bit of lively debate whipped up on Twitter concerning the recent widely announced 2ppl milk price decline coinciding with a widespread feed price hike. An across the board GBP10/tonne price increase on finished product for May delivery seems to be about the trade average, which probably represents an rise of around 5% for most.

Considering that Chicago soymeal prices are up by 55% since the mid-December lows that's a very modest increase indeed.

Robert Wiseman highlight the collapse in the price of bulk cream in defending their milk price decrease. A quick check on the DairyCo website does indeed confirm that cream prices fell 22% last month alone and are down 44% year on year.

The market is the market, it would seem. As ever, I suspect that these thing will correct themselves one way or another in the fullness of time. When that will be is anybody's guess though, I somehow suspect that the next milk price move won't be too far behind this one, and that it will alas be in a similar direction.

My personal knowledge as to why (or should that be whey?) the arse has fallen out of the bulk cream market is limited. Is it oversupply? Is it the nasty supermarkets saying that Mrs Housewife and her lightweight purse can only afford to pay X for her daily intake of cream? Maybe after 10 years of marriage and a couple of kids her taste for all things creamy has been somewhat diminished?

Butter prices are also on the wane, with DairyCo saying that discussion "as to whether intervention is now needed to cure apparent over-supply in the market" are taking place with prices down by almost a third year-on-year.

None of this seems to bode too well for feed demand from the dairy sector across the summer it has to be said.

Chicago Slumps, With New Crop Wheat Faring The Worst

02/05/12 -- Soybeans: May 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.80, down 17 3/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.68 1/4, down 24 1/4 cents; May 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD428.50, down USD4.00; May 12 Soybean Oil closed at 54.33, down 19 points. Beans posted new highs early in the session but got dragged down by weaker corn and wheat as the morning wore on. Funds sold an estimated 9,000 soybean contracts on the day despite the USDA confirming further fresh export business in the for of 204,000 MT of new crop soybeans to "unknown" along with 30,000 MT of old crop soybean oil sold to China. The trade is expecting another big week in the tomorrow’s weekly export sales report, with soybean estimates ranging from 900 TMT to 1.4 MMT. With old crop availability continuing to tighten it will be interesting to see how tomorrow's sales are split. Despite today's falls the soybean:corn price ratio still favours some switching into beans.

Corn: May 12 Corn closed at USD6.42 1/4, down 17 1/2 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.31, down 7 3/4 cents. Funds were said to have been heavy sellers, dumping around 18,000 contracts on the day. The USDA announced the sale of 130,000 MT of new crop corn to unknown. Chinese customs officials have apparently given the green light to Argentine corn imports, which may harm US export prospects in that direction. Brazilian corn production hopes are increasing by virtue of better prospects for second crop corn. On Monday analyst Michael Cordonnier raised his production forecast from 58 MMT to 61 MMT. The USDA attache in Brazil now goes 64.5 MMT from 62 MMT. Ideas of an early US harvest eroded some of the nearby premium away despite availability tightness. Given the recent business to China trade estimates for tomorrow’s weekly export sales report range from 3.0 to 4.0 MMT, much of which has already been confirmed under the daily reporting system.

Wheat: May 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.07, down 26 3/4 cents; May 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.18 1/4, down 27 1/4 cents; May 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.44 1/2, down 22 1/2 cents. It was bearish news all the way for wheat. The ongoing Kansas crop tour is reporting much better yield potential from a rapidly maturing crop. Spring wheat plantings are hugely advanced. Western European weather concerns have been dispelled by abundant April rains and any lingering doubts over Eastern Europe should get a shot in the arm with a decent rainfall event on the cards for the end of the week. New crop July CBOT wheat closed at new lows for 2012, also took out the 2011 lows and came within a few cents of the contract low set very early in it's life back in September 2010. Trade estimates for tomorrow’s weekly export sales report range from 600 to 850 TMT.

EU Wheat Close

02/05/12 -- EU grains finished mixed with May 12 London wheat down GBP2.25/tonne to GBP174.25/tonne and Nov 12 down GBP1.40/tonne to GBP153.75/tonne. May 12 Paris wheat was EUR1.25/tonne higher at EUR217.75/tonne, new crop Nov 12 was down EUR2.00/tonne to EUR201.75/tonne.

Rapeseed was showing solid gains for most of the day amidst ideas that the EU-27 crop would struggle to be much higher than 18 MMT this year, further supported by Chicago soybeans surging to fresh highs in afternoon trade.

A late capitulation, as soybeans got dragged lower by sinking corn and wheat values across the pond, however saw rapeseed futures close well off session highs. Nov 12 Paris rapeseed closed EUR1.00/tonne higher at EUR475.75/tonne having been as high as EUR481.00/tonne at one stage.

April's abundant rainfall means that wheat potential in the UK, France and Germany has improved dramatically.

Things would appear to have improved significantly in Ukraine too, where agronomist Mike Lee reports "perfect growing conditions" and is upbeat about new crop production prospects.

In America, a Kansas crop tour found winter wheat crops there to be in great shape with yields on day one coming in at 53.6 bushels an acre, much better than the 40.7 bushels an acre average over the last three years and more than 50% up on the state's poor average of just 35 bushels and acre last year.

A Bloomberg survey pegs the final Kansas wheat yield at 45.8 bushels an acre this year, the best since 2003.

The crop there is also said to be around four weeks ahead of normal maturity, meaning that an early harvest is on the cards leaving less time for Mother Nature to throw it a curveball.

The euro was under pressure again on news that Euro-zone unemployment hit 10.9% in March - the highest since the euro was formed in 1999.

Late News

02/05/12 -- The USDA have just announced the sale of 204,000 MT of new crop soybeans to "unknown" along with 130,000 MT of new crop corn to the same mystery shopper. In addition they've confirmed 30,000 MT of old crop soybean oil sold to China.

Elsewhere, South Korea have bought 123, 000 MT of corn (58 TMT from the US and 65 TMT of optional origin) for November shipment.

My favourite tweet of the day from FCStone in reference to the impending US wheat harvest: "Elevators need to be clearing space soon, because this baby is coming early and it is going to be heavy." Nurse...!!

Very Early Call On Chicago

02/05/12 -- The overnight grains are currently lower with beans down 7-9 cents, corn 3-4 cents weaker and wheat down 6-8 cents. Crude oil is also lower.

Fresh news is scarce once again, with some countries still closed for business following May Day yesterday.

On the tender front South Korea have bought 58,000 MT of US corn for October delivery, Taiwan has bought 56,500 MT of US wheat for June deliver and Lebanon is tendering for 50,000 MT of milling wheat also for June arrival.

China says that it will allow Argy corn into the country (beggars can't be choosers can they?). There had previously been quarantine issues with corn from the South American nation.

The first day of the Kansas crop tour yesterday found a yield potential of 53.6 bushels an acre, much better than the 40.7 bushels an acre average over the last three years on the first day and higher than the record yield for the state of 49 bushels an acre set in 1998.

Whilst nobody is predicting that the state average will ultimately come in that high this year it does show that there is potential for a very good wheat crop in what is the largest US wheat producing state.

State-wide yields last year were only 35 bushels an acre.

US corn plantings are off the the best possible start pressuring new crop. The trade seems to be thinking that this early progress will mean fewer acres getting switched into soybeans than may have been the case otherwise.

The likelihood of an early wheat harvest will see some double cropping going on with prices where they are, this could boost the final corn & soybean area from current USDA projections, which would be bearish for corn in particular given that the current forecast area is already the largest since 1937.

For beans I'd say it's less bearish as the USDA's March planting intentions report gave us more than a million acres fewer in 2012 than last year, and taking into account the subsequent South American losses.

Michael Cordonnier's 40 MMT estimate for Argentina yesterday now stands fully 5 MMT beneath the USDA's April number. The USDA are out a week tomorrow with their revised May WASDE report.

Euro-zone unemployment hit 10.9% in March - the highest since the euro was formed in 1999. Even German unemployment rose last month. That has put the euro back under pressure again today and sees the dollar strengthen, pressuring the grains.

Very early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans and wheat 4-6 cents lower.

EU Rapemeal Prices

02/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed, but mostly a little higher today after the market was closed yesterday for the May Day holiday. Old crop tightness remains.

Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day:

Chicago Close - Tuesday

01/05/12 -- Soybeans: May 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.97 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.92 1/2, up 11 1/2 cents; May 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD432.50, down USD1.80; May 12 Soybean Oil closed at 54.52, down 14 points. New crop gained on old crop as demand remains strong going forward with the USDA reporting the sale of 110,000 MT of beans to China for 2012/13 delivery. The rapid corn planting progress being made by US farmers is seen as bullish for new crop soybeans. South American analyst Michael Cordonnier estimated the Argentine soybean crop at 40.0 MMT versus his previous estimate of 41.5 MMT. Ne also dropped his Brazilian soybean estimate from 66 MMT to 65 MMT. Funds were said to have been net sellers of 2,000 soybean contracts on the day.

Corn: May 12 Corn closed at USD6.59 3/4, down 1/2 cent; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.38 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents. Funds were estimated to have sold around 9,000 corn contracts on the day. Cordonnier estimated the Argentine corn crop at 19.0 MMT versus his previous estimate of 20.0 MMT. He did however raise his Brazilian estimate from 59 MMT to 61 MMT thanks to higher plantings and hope for a better yield from second crop corn. Informa estimate Argentine corn production at 22 MMT and Brazilian output at 62 MMT. The USDA said that US growers made rapid progress with corn plantings last week, getting a quarter of the crop into the ground in a single week. Illinois has 79% of their corn crop planted versus 29% for the 5 year average. That put pressure on new crop. Emergence is well ahead of normal also, raising the prospect of a needed early harvest this year.

Wheat: May 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.33 3/4, down 14 cents; May 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.45 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents; May 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.67, down 11 1/4 cents. Wheat followed corn lower. The USDA confirmed that 110,000 MT of the weekend Saudi business was US origin HRW wheat. Apart from that there was little supportive news. There's a Kansas wheat starting today which concludes Thursday. Early news from that is of much better yield potential than last year. Winter wheat crop conditions have improved to 64% good to excellent, up 1% from a week ago and well ahead of 34% a year ago. Spring wheat planting is more than double the normal pace at 74% complete. Maturity of both crops is also well ahead of normal, pointing to an early winter wheat harvest and giving spring wheat the maximum amount of time to produce a decent yield.

London Wheat Close

01/05/12 -- EU grains finished lower with May 12 London wheat closing down GBP2.25/tonne at GBP176.50/tonne, and Nov 12 falling GBP0.85/tonne to GBP155.15/tonne. The Paris market was closed for the May Day holiday.

With Paris and much of the continent, including the Black Sea, out of action there was little going on today.

The USDA last night said that US farmers planted a quarter of the anticipated 2012 corn acreage in just a week as of Sunday night. Planting is already past the halfway point at 53% done versus only 27% normally. Emergence is 15% compared to 6% normally.

There's a long way to the finishing post yet, but the crop has clearly been given the best possible start.

In addition spring wheat plantings are more than double their normal rate at 74% complete and emergence is 30% versus only 8% for the five year average.

Winter wheat crop conditions improved slightly from last week to 64% good/excellent (compared to just 34% a year ago). Maturity of the crop is also well advanced at 54% headed compared to 24% on average.

The USDA attaché in Romania said that widespread damage to the winter rapeseed crop there will see an increase in corn acres this spring, a situation that is likely to be replicated in many parts of Eastern Europe. Romania's wheat and barley output are also both seen around 10% lower this year.

In Western Europe the drought may finally be broken but April rains have arrived late enough to see Spain's corn plantings fall by more than 15% this spring, according to the Ag Ministry there. Durum wheat production in the south of the country is likely to take a significant hit, although rain in the north over the past month should alleviate some damage to the wheat and barley crops there.

For the UK and France the old adage "rain makes grain" will be tested this year, with some crop reports already saying that there's been no crop damage "yet". The Met Office say that the UK's April rainfall total was the wettest on records which date back to 1910, surpassing even the previous record of 120.3mm set in 2000.

Out of interest rain did indeed make grain in 2000 as we ended up with our second highest wheat crop ever. The record high production year of 2008 was also dogged by persistent rains that led to some fields not getting harvested until October.

Early Call On Chicago

01/05/12 -- The overnight gains saw a bit of consolidation with beans ending around 10-12 down on old crop and 3-4 down on new crop. Corn was 4-6 cents lower and wheat 7-11 cents weaker. Crude is barely changed.

Fresh news is scarce with half of Europe and Asia away on holiday.

You can't fault China though, they're back again with the USDA reporting 110,000 MT of soybeans sold to them for 2012/13 delivery.

The USDA have also confirmed that 110,000 MT of the weekend Saudi business was US origin HRW wheat.

Michael Cordonnier has cut his Argy soybean production estimate from 41.5 MMT to 40.0 MMT and taken 1 MMT off his Brazilian forecast which now stands at 65.0 MMT.

There's a Kansas wheat tour kicking off today which concludes Thursday. Yields are expected to be around 10 bushels/acre up on last year's drought stricken 35 bpa.

Last night's rapid progress in corn planting should weigh on new crop today. So too should winter wheat maturity at 54% headed versus 24% on average.

In what could be a low volume session early calls are for wheat and soybeans to open 8-10 cents down, with corn 5-7 cents weaker.

The Early Vibe

01/05/12 -- The French are off today, so we can say what we like about them. With large parts of Asia and Europe closed it looks like a thin no news sort of a day so far in what seems to be shaping up as a mini Turnaround Tuesday.

The overnight grains are lower. Surprising the market was corn plantings surging ahead last night to 53% complete after US growers planted a quarter of the crop in a week.

That seems to be weighing a bit on the market this morning, although it doesn't alter old crop availability, or lack of it, one iota.

No sooner did soybeans close above USD15/bu than they are back below that level this morning, although I have a feeling that this rally isn't over yet, there's an entire summer weather market to get through before we can breathe a sigh of relief.

New crop Nov London wheat has opened GBP1.00/tonne lower in what seems sure to be an unspectacular day. Yawn.

Chicago Soybeans End Above USD15/bu For First Time Since 2008

30/04/12 -- Soybeans: May 12 Soybeans closed at USD15.03, up 6 1/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.80 3/4, up 18 3/4 cents; May 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD434.10, up USD6.70; May 12 Soybean Oil closed at 54.77, down 41 points. Old crop May 12 got its first close above USD15/bu since July 2008 and new crop gained on old crop following the announcement by the USDA of 220,000 MT of soybeans sold to China for 2012/13 delivery. Ag Rural cut its Brazilian soybean production estimate to 66.24 MMT following the recent theme that South American production keeps shrinking. Soybean export inspections were 15.45M bushels, better than last week and year ago levels. Funds were said to have bought 4,000 soybean contracts on the day. After the close the USDA estimated the US soybean crop at 12% planted versus 2% last year and 5% on average.

Corn: May 12 Corn closed at USD6.60 1/4, up 7 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.44 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents. Old crop availability remains tight, as evidenced by the lack of deliveries against the May contract for which today was the first delivery date. Weekly export inspections were only so so though at 24.92M bushels. After the close the USDA pegged corn plantings well ahead of expectations at 53% complete. The trade had been expecting 40-45% done, which in itself would have been well advanced on the normal five year average of 27%. That may be a negative influence in the morning. Illinois is 79% planted, versus 29% normally, whilst Iowa went from 9% done to 50% complete in a single week. Funds were said to have bought 10,000 contracts on the day. The APK Inform Agency say that Ukraine may export 14 MMT of corn this season, a figure comparable with that from the USDA and almost three times the volume exported in 2010/11.

Wheat: May 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.47 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents; May 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.50, up 3 1/2 cents; May 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.79 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents. US wheat managed to win a share of Saudi Arabia's 450,000 MT purchase of hard wheat over the weekend. The the tender was well spread out amongst the EU, Australia, Canada and Argentina. Weekly export inspections were only 19.83M bushels versus 25.16M last week and 36.75M a year ago. After the close the USDA pegged winter wheat good/excellent up one point to 64%. Spring wheat plantings were said to be 74% completed compared with the 5 year average of only 32%. Eastern European drought concerns could be eased by cooler and wetter conditions in the forecast for later in the week. The Russian Minister of Agriculture said Friday that the country will harvest 94 MMT of grains in 2012, pegging winter crop losses at 7.5% which is about average.

EU Wheat Close- Monday

30/04/12 -- EU grains finished mostly higher with May 12 London wheat up GBP0.25/tonne to GBP178.75/tonne, whilst new crop Nov 12 rose GBP0.40/tonne to close at GBP156.00/tonne. May 12 Paris wheat ended EUR2.75/tonne firmer at EUR216.50/tonne, whilst Nov 12 was EUR1.00/tonne higher at EUR203.75/tonne.

For the calendar month May 12 London wheat was up GBP4.00/tonne and May 12 Paris wheat was EUR3.75/tonne higher.

Following on from the unseasonably warm and dry March here in the UK, April has been the wettest in more than 100 years, with some areas recording three times their normal monthly rainfall, according to the MetOffice.

Western Europe has also turned markedly cooler and wetter, with the BBC forecasting that Eastern Europe will also be following suit by the end of the week. That should temper yield loss fears there too.

Saudi Arabia bought 450,000 MT of hard wheat over the weekend, booking a mixture of Argentine, Australian, Canadian, European and the US origins.

The pound hit a 22-month high, breaching 1.23, against the euro today which will do little to aid our export hopes going forward.

Strong demand in Germany for feed wheat sees milling wheat being sold off as feed, with reports suggesting that a technical nearby shortage means that Romanian and other origin wheat is being shipped in as feed grade.

The market on the continent is rather thin however with Holland closed today and France closed tomorrow for public holidays.

That partly was responsible for Paris May 12 rapeseed going off the board EUR13.25/tonne lower, leaving new crop Aug 12 as the new front month.

Early Call On Chicago

30/04/12 -- The overnight grains saw a bit of consolidation from Friday's gains with soybeans 210 cents lower on old crop and 3-5 cents easier on old crop. Wheat ended 4-9 cents weaker and corn was mixed. Crude oil is also lower.

As will as consolidation/profit-taking following Friday's advances, we may also be in for a bit of month-end book squaring too, although fundamentally nothing has changed.

Ag Rural have lowered their Brazilian soybean production estimate a little to 66.24 MMT.

Eastern European weather is seen turning cooler and wetter in the second half of the week, which may ease heat and dryness concerns there. There are no such problems in Western Europe after another cool and very wet weekend for many.

US corn plantings are expected to have advanced to 40-45% done as of Sunday night, which the USDA will report upon after the close.

A mentioned earlier, last week was all about corn, it remains to be seen if the USDA are done with announcing any further sales to China or unknown. They have however this afternoon announced 220,000 MT of new crop soybean sales to China.

Fifteen dollar soybeans clearly aren't putting them off too much with their domestic levels around USD4/bu more expensive.

Saudi Arabia bought a mixture of US, EU, Australian, Canadian and Argy wheat over the weekend in a 450,000 MT purchase.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 1-2 cents, wheat down 7-9 cents, soybeans down 6-8 cents,

EU Rapemeal Prices

30/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer again today in line with significant gains in Chicago soymeal on Friday night.

Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:

The Morning Vibe

30/04/12 -- Not much of a weekend was it? Sunday being particularly awful. Scarborough had 27mm of rain in the 12 hours to 10pm yesterday, the average for the entire month of April is just 43mm. The rain is set to have a day off today, before returning with a vengeance again tomorrow. Oh joy.

The first thing catching my attention this morning is the pound rising close to 1.63 against the US dollar and 1.23 versus the euro. Places it hasn't been since June 2010 in the case of the euro and last August in the case of the dollar.

Sterling seems to have developed an element of safe haven status compared with the beleaguered euro in particular, and not before time IMHO.

Saudi Arabia bought 450,000 MT of hard wheat over the weekend, spreading the joy between Argentina, Australia, Canada, Europe and the US in their typical style.

Last week was all about corn sales to China, I wonder if this week will bring some more or will it be all about confirmation of recent rumoured soybean purchases? On the other hand will it be neither?

The overnight grains are mixed, with wheat mostly a little lower and corn & soybeans mostly a tad firmer with no sign of any drama yet.

The USDA will report on planting progress tonight with the trade expecting corn sowings to be somewhere 40% done compared with 28% a week ago.

The Russian Minister of Agriculture said Friday that the country will harvest 94 MMT of grains in 2012, pegging winter crop losses at 7.5% which is about average but better than in 2009 and 2010.

The APK Inform Agency say that Ukraine may export 14 MMT of corn this season, a figure comparable with that from the USDA and almost three times the volume exported in 2010/11. Wheat exports are only likely to be 5 MMT, little more than half of what they shipped a couple of seasons ago.

Winter crop conditions in Ukraine are 27% good, 42% satisfactory and 21% weak/thinned, according to the Ag Ministry.

One thing that may have slipped through your net on Friday that is well worthy of attention was a Reuters report saying that Strategie Grains are now predicting an EU-27 rapeseed crop of just 17.6 MMT this year - the lowest estimate that I've seen yet and 1.5 MMT down on last year's disappointing tally.