Chicago Beans Tumble
20/12/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed sharply lower on an improved weather outlook in Argentina and bird flu in Asia. Reuters reported that South Korea has culled 20 million birds since the H5N6 virus was first discovered there on November 18. There are also outbreaks in China and Europe too. Malaysia said that it will raise the export tax on palm oil from 6% to 7% starting January 2017. Argentine soybean exports were only 492 TMT in October versus 1.51 MMT a year previously. Jan/Oct exports are down 21% at 9.8 MMT. There were no new USDA sales announced this morning under the daily reporting system. Thin pre-holiday trade will likely add to volatility this week. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.05 1/4, down 16 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.15 3/4, down 16 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $308.80, down $3.40; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 36.06, down 50 points.
Corn: The market closed around 3 cents lower. AgRural estimated Brazil's full season corn crop at 59.9 MMT, up 47% from only 40.7 MMT last year. They see all corn output at 88.3 MMT, up 33%. Vietnam, the third largest importer of U.S DDGs, are said to have suspended intake beginning December 17th due to insect contamination. Bloomberg report that China may expand subsidies to farmers who grow soy, silage and alfalfa rather than corn. Chinese radio says that the government intend to reduce the 2017 corn area by nearly 1.65 million acres (1.8%) in continuing efforts to reduce reserve stocks. Argentina's October corn exports were up 60% at 1.89 MMT. That takes Jan/Oct exports to 21.2 MMT, a 32% hike versus 12 months previously. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.50 1/4, down 3 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.57, down 3 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with small losses. Egypt bought 180 TMT of Russian wheat, 120 TMT of Argentine and 60 TMT of Romanian origin in their tender. The Argentine wheat was around $13/tonne FOB under the price paid for Russian material. US wheat was not offered as part of the tender. Taiwan are tendering for 93,000 MT of US wheat. Jordan are in for 25,000 MT of optional origin wheat. Argentina said that they'd exported 369 TMT of wheat in October, up 29% on a year ago. Jan/Oct exports are almost double those of 2015 at 8.2 MMT. Frigid temperatures on the US Plains and Black Sea area keep getting flagged up as a potential worry down the line. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.03 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.12 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.40 3/4, down 1 cent.
Egypt Spreads Wheat Business Around
The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat up GBP0.95/tonne at GBP137.10/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR167.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was up EUR0.75/tonne to EUR165.75/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed fell EUR1.75/tonne to EUR413.50/tonne.
Highlight of the day was the result of the latest Egyptian wheat tender, which saw them spread the business around between Argentina, Romania and Russia,
The latter won the lion's share of the 360,000 MT order, picking up 3 cargoes (180 TMT) worth, followed by 2 cargoes of Argentine wheat (120 TMT) and one (60 TMT) of Romanian origin.
It is interesting to see Argentina, mid-wheat harvest, competing into Egypt despite a significant freight disadvantage.
In other tender news, Jordan cancelled and immediately re-tendered for 25,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat.
Rapeseed prices were lower in line with a reversal in Chicago soybeans following rain in Argentina.
There's some trade concern developing over sub-zero temperatures and a lack of snow cover in the Black Sea area.
Chicago Soybeans Lead Market Lower
19/12/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on rain in Argentina. BA and La Pampa provinces were said to have received ½ to 1 ½” rains over the weekend, with the prospect of more to follow. Adding to the bearish tone was news that SAFRAS increased its Brazilian soybean production estimate to 106.1 MMT, up 2.6 MMT from October and now 4.1 MMT above the USDA. Crop development is said to be very good. The USDA announced 264,000 MT of soybeans to China announced under the daily reporting system. Weekly export inspections were pretty good at 1.731 MMT, even if they were down 6% from the previous week. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.21 1/2, down 15 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.32, down 14 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $312.20, down $4.90; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 36.56, down 18 points.
Corn: Corn closed around 3 cents easier. Weekly export inspections of 769,008 MT were a bit on the low side of expectations and down 12% from the previous week. The USDA did report 128,000 MT of US corn sold to Japan for delivery in 2016/17 under the daily reporting system though. Argentina has received the much anticipated rains over much of their critical growing acres with more expected this week, easing production fears there. The Russian 2016 harvest is finally wrapping up at 125.8 MMT (97.2% complete), including 15.3 MMT of corn off 89.3% of the planted area. Record production this year is a certainty. They've already increased 2016/17 exports by almost a third over 2015/16 to 2.05 MMT. Ukraine's seaports exported 670.1 TMT of grains last week, of which 442.4 TMT was corn. Agritel say that the Ukraine corn harvest still has around 10% to go, with final production expected at around 26.2 MMT, a 2.9 MMT increase on a year ago. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.53 1/4, down 3 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.60, down 3 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed lower in line with the rest of the complex. Weekly export inspections of 478,213 MT were in line with expectations. YTD inspections are still up nearly 27% vs. year ago though. Extreme cold in the US Plains and Midwest is still grabbing some attention for US wheat, although the market is very conscious of the global oversupply situation. The EU’s crop monitoring unit, MARS, sees possible frost kill the week beginning December 21. Winter weather there has been relatively mild so far leaving crops vulnerable to a cold snap forecast to see temperatures drop to -4C. Egypt are back in the market tendering for wheat for late Jan shipment. Russia's wheat exports so far this season stand at 14.32 MMT. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Cordoba wheat producers to harvest a record 4 MMT this year, up from 2.7 MMT a year ago. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.05, down 4 1/4 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.14, down 3/4 cent; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.41 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Higher Monday
At the finish Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP1.10/tonne at GBP136.15/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR167.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn ended EUR0.25/tonne firmer at EUR165.00/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR2.00/tonne lower at EUR415.25/tonne.
Similar to a year ago, the relatively mild start to the EU winter means that "the hardening of winter cereals is considerably delayed," the EU Commission's MARS unit said in a report.
"The current situation is delicate, since a cold air intrusion could cause considerable frost-kill damage in the areas characterised by no snow cover and low frost tolerance of winter crops," they said, adding though that "frost kill has been very limited so far."
However, a "significant" cold intrusion is forecast to bring harsh cold to the eastern half of Europe from December 21, they warned.
Egypt tendered for wheat for Jan 20-31 shipment, with the results expected tomorrow.
Russia said that it had exported 18.28 MMT of grains so far this season, a 1.8% decline on year ago levels. That total includes 14.32 MMT of wheat, 1.8 MMT of barley and 2.05 MMT of corn.
The Russian 2016 harvest is finally wrapping up at 125.8 MMT (97.2% complete), including 15.3 MMT of corn off 89.3% of the planted area.
APK Inform reported that Ukraine seaports had exported 670.1 TMT of grains last week, up from 635.2 TMT the previous week. Wheat consisted of 202.4 TMT of that total, corn 442.4 TMT and barley 24.8 TMT.
Agritel say that the Ukraine corn harvest still has around 10% to go, with final production expected at around 26.2 MMT, a 2.9 MMT increase on a year ago.
Chicago Close - Friday
16/12/16 -- Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.36 3/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.46 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $317.10, up $3.10; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 36.74, unchanged.
Corn: Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.56 1/4, down 1/4 cent; May 17 Corn settled at $3.63, down 1/4 cent.
Wheat: Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.09 1/4, unchanged; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.14 3/4, up 2 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.44 1/4, up 6 1/4 cents.
EU Grains Close -Friday
16/12/16 -- EU grains closed mostly lower on the day and with little change from last Friday.
At the close Jan 17 London wheat was down GBP0.65/tonne at GBP135.40/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne higher at EUR167.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was EUR0.75/tonne lower at EUR164.75/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was down EUR2.50/tonne to EUR417.25/tonne.
EU soft wheat exports continue to slow up and are now running just 1% ahead of year ago levels at a cumulative 11.13 MMT after 135,000 MT was exported this week.
Cunulative barley exports are 65% down compared to this time last year at 1.88 MMT, including 118,000 MT shipped this week.
EU corn imports are running 19% lower year-on-year at 4.22 MMT.
Algeria bought 490,000 MT of unknown origin wheat on the international market. At least some of that should end up coming from the EU, and possibly even the UK which has been enjoying some success in this direction recently.
FranceAgriMer reported unchanged French winter wheat and barley crop conditions from last week at 94% and 92% good to very good respectively.
Strategie Grains increased their forecast for EU-28 soft wheat exports in 2016/17 by 170 TMT to 23.4 MMT (still down sharply on 32.7 MMT in 2015/16)
They estimated the 2017 EU-28 soft wheat crop at 145 MMT versus 135.9 MMT this year.
Ukraine said that it had exported 20.06 MMT of grains so far this season versus 19.18 MMT this time last year. Wheat accounts for 10.6 MMT of that total, up from 9.5 MMT a year ago. Corn exports are down 0.45 MMT at 5.3 MMT.
Chicago Close - Tuesday
13/12/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on news that the Chinese government had ordered six plants to temporarily halt crushing operations in order to curb air pollution. Argentina is said to be 58% planted, behind 64% normally, with more dry weather in the forecast. Coceral forecast the EU-28 2016 rapeseed crop at 20 MMT versus 22.4 MMT in 2015. IMEA say that growers in Brazil's Mato Grosso state are 47.5% forward sold versus 55.4% a year ago. There were no announcements from the USDA under the daily reporting system today. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.28, down 3 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.39 1/2, down 3 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $313.50, down $1.30; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 36.57, down 19 points.
Corn: The market closed with small gains. Ethanol, which rose to two year highs yesterday, is keeping US demand solid. US production has been above 1 million barrels/day for the last six weeks. Ethanol cash margins are very attractive, averaging over $1/bu in the Midwest. The latest numbers from the US Energy Dept are out tomorrow. Argentina is said to be 48% planted on new crop corn. Some analysts are already starting to scale down their estimates for Argentine corn production this year. Coceral estimated EU-28 2016 corn output up 3.4% at 60.7 MMT. US growers are said to be "shutting up shop" ahead of adverse weather conditions rolling in and the Christmas break. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.56 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.61, up 1/2 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. Fresh news was limited. Coceral forecast the EU-28 soft wheat crop at 134.7 MMT, up slightly on their previous estimate but still 11.5% down on 152.1 MMT a year ago. Tunisia are tendering for 92,000 MT of soft wheat, and 50,000 MT of durum, and the Philippines tendered for 56,000 MT of feed wheat. Forecast cold weather for the US Plains is getting some attention from the shorts, with snow cover scarce in many places. Russia and Ukraine are also in for a cold snap that has Rusagrotrans lowering their estimate for Russia's grain exports this month from 3.8 MMT to 3.45 MMT. UkrAgroConsult trimmed the Russian barley crop 600 TMT to 18.4 MMT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.98, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.99 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.40 3/4, down 1 cent.
EU Grains Mostly Higher Tuesday
The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat down GBP0.10/tonne at GBP135.05/tonne, new front month Mar 17 Paris wheat was EUR1.00/tonne higher at EUR165.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was up EUR0.25/tonne to EUR165.25/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed rose EUR1.25/tonne to EUR414.25/tonne.
UK export data for October shows that our wheat exports fell to 145,437 MT, down from 252,429 MT in September, with Algeria our largest single buyer taking 59,266 MT. Season to date exports are up 60% year-on-year at almost 859 TMT.
UK October barley exports of 72 TMT were at their lowest level in four years, say the HGCA. Cumulative season to date exports are 430 TMT versus 507 TMT a year ago.
"The slower pace of barley exports contrasts to the continued fastest pace of UK wheat exports for six years," they said.
"UK average ex-farm feed barley spot prices traded over £20/MT lower than feed wheat in late October, yet wheat still continued to be more successful in finding both export and domestic feed demand. The spread between prices has continued to hover around £20/MT since, but if wheat continues to more successfully find demand relative to barley, there could be pressure for the spread to grow," they added.
Coceral forecast the EU-28 soft wheat crop at 134.7 MMT, up slightly on their previous estimate but still 11.5% down on 152.1 MMT a year ago.
The French wheat crop was seen 31% lower than last year at 28.9 MMT, with output in the UK estimated 12% down at 14.5 MMT.
The EU barley crop was forecast 3.4% lower at 59.2 MMT, with corn output up 3.4% at 60.7 MMT.
The French Ag Ministry estimated winter wheat plantings for the 2017 harvest around unchanged at 5.19 million ha, but some 3.5% up on the recent 5-year average.
Rusagrotrans lowered their forecast for the country's December grain exports from 3.8 MMT to 3.45 MMT due to adverse weather conditions.
Chicago Close - Monday
12/12/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower despite better than expected weekly export inspections of 1.837 MMT. The USDA also reported that China bought 256,600 MT of US soybeans for 2016/17 delivery under the daily reporting system. In Brazil, soybean planting is reported to be 95% complete. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.31, down 6 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.42 1/2, down 6 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $314.80, down $2.60; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 36.76, up 2 points.
Corn: Corn closed a cent or two firmer. Weekly export inspections were 860,927 MT - more than 150% of the same week last year - but no better than trade expectations. China booked 100,000 MT of US sorghum according to the USDA's daily reporting system. The focus is now squarely on South American weather, with comined Arg/Braz production seen up 25-28% on last year. Ukraine seaports exported 429.9 TMT of corn last week, according to ASK Inform Agency. Russia's 2-16 corn harvest is seen 87.87% done at 14.9 MMT, according to their Ag Ministry. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.54 1/2, up 2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.60 1/2, up 1 cent.
Wheat: Wheat closed modestly higher in all three exchanges. Weekly export inspections of 440,805 MT were in line with what was expected by the market. Saudi Arabia bought 725 000 MT of hard 12.5% milling wheat with at least some of it scheduled to come from the US, according to trade gossip. Algeria tendered for 100,000 MT of Jan milling wheat. Jordan are tendering for 25,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat. Russia said that it's 2016 wheat harvest was 98.2% complete at 75.9 MMT in bunker weight. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.01 1/4, up 1 cent; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.97 1/2, up 2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.41 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Higher
At the finish Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP0.25/tonne at GBP135.15/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat plunged EUR6.25/tonne higher at EUR155.50/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn ended EUR0.25/tonne firmer at EUR164.25/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR1.00/tonne steadier at EUR413.00/tonne.
Saudi Arabia bought 725 000 MT of hard 12.5% milling wheat, probably said to be a mixture of US and South American origin for shipment Feb/April. Algeria tendered for 100,000 MT of Jan milling wheat. Jordan are tendering for 25,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat.
Strong crude oil prices lent some support to already firm rapeseed values, although soybeans and palm oil were a bit lower.
The Black Sea region is experiencing it's first serious cold spell of the winter, which may cause some shipping and transport disruptions.
Ukraine seaports shipped out 639.2 TMT of grains last week, up from 550.9 TMT the previous week. That included 188.3 TMT of wheat, 429.9 TMT of corn and 17 TMT of barley. The top homes were Egypt, India and Tunisia.
In Ukraine winter grain emergence is seen at 93%. of which 83% is said to be in good to satisfactory condition and 17% weak/thinned.
Russia's 2016 harvest is placed at 97.1% done on 45.9 million ha for a crop of 125.5 MMT so far. That includes a corn harvest that's 87.87% done at 14.9 MMT.
Chicago Closes Higher After USDA Report
09/12/16 -- Beans closed higher despite a USDA report that pegged 2016/17 US soybean ending stocks unchanged at 480 million bushels versus the 474 million expected. World carryout showed an increase from 81.3 MMT to 82.9 MMT. They USDA put Brazil at 102 MMT and left Argentina at 57.0 MMT. They also announced the sale of 132,000 MT of US soybeans to unknown destinations overnight. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.37 1/2, up 10 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.48 1/2, up 10 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $317.40, up $5.00; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 36.74, down 31 points.
Corn: Corn closed closed higher as the USDA report came and went with hardly a blink. They left 2016/17 US ending stocks unchanged at 2.403 billion bushels. They raised world production by more than 9 MMT to almost 1040 MMT. Brazil was up 3 MMT, China up 3.5 MMT and Russia was raised by 1 MMT. World exports were raised 2 MMT to 141.7 MMT, with Brazil up 1 MMT to 22 MMT and Russia up 600,000 MT to 5.3 MMT. Taiwan were said to have bought 65 TMT of probably US corn overnight. Israel bought 95 TMT of Black Sea corn for Feb/April shipment. The Argentine corn crop is said to be 48% planted. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.52 1/2, up 6 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.59 1/2, up 6 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with net gains on all three exchanges. The USDA left projected US wheat ending stocks unaltered at 1.143 billion bushels. They raised global and Australian production in 2016/17 to new records. Russian production was seen unchanged at 72 MMT, exports were lowered 1.0 MMT to 29.0 MMT due to slower-than-expected trade. World carryout was seen at an alt-time high of over 252 MMT. SovEcon boosted their estimate for Russia's total grain harvest by 1.5 MMT to 114 MMT. Argentine wheat is said to be 40.7% harvested. US winter wheat weather is starting to raise a few eyebrows with lows below zero over the next 7-10 days with accompanying gale force winds. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.00 1/4, up 9 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.95 1/2, up 8 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.36, up 1/4 cent.
EU Wheat Slips Following USDA Report
09/12/16 -- EU grains closed mostly mixed as the trade digested the latest raft of world supply and demand numbers from the USDA.
At the close Jan 17 London wheat was down GBP0.90/tonne at GBP134.90/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR161.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was EUR0.25/tonne firmer at EUR164.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR2.75/tonne to EUR412.00/tonne.
The USDA raised global and Australian production in 2016/17 to new records. Global trade was however also boosted to a new record with stronger import demand from Asia and Brazil. Larger exports for Australia and Argentina were partially offset by a decrease for Russia.
EU 2016/17 wheat production was raised 400,000 MT to just shy of 144 MMT and EU exports were left unchanged at 25 MMT (down 28% from 34.7 MMT last season).
Russian production was seen unchanged at 72 MMT, exports were lowered 1.0 MMT to 29.0 MMT due to slower-than-expected trade
Australia's crop saw a big hike, up from 28.3 MMT to 33 MMT, with exports also seen sharply higher a 23 MMT from 20.5 MMT previously.
The bottom line was a raise in world ending stocks of almost 3 MMT to a record of over 252 MMT.
In other news, Brussels announced that they'd only approved a paltry 88 TMT worth of soft wheat exports this past week, down 79% on the previous week. That takes the season to date total to 10.47 MMT.
Less than 35 TMT worth of barley exports were passed, taking this season's total to 1.76 MMT.
Trade talk suggests that India could be a large wheat importer for the remainder of the season. They're said to have already imported 1.72 MMT of wheat this year, with over 1 MMT of that coming from Ukraine, approximately 500 TMT from Australia and around 150 TMT from France.
Trade ideas are that they will need to import at least 3 MMT, and possibly as much as 5 MMT in total, due to quality and quantity shortfalls in their own 2016 crop.
Around 400 TMT of Ukraine wheat is rumoured to be held up on passage to India as exporters there concentrate their efforts on corn shipments. That could provide a short-term window of opportunity for EU wheat.
Chicago Soybeans Dive Ahead Of USDA Report
08/12/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with sharp losses. Weekly export sales were decent at 1,461,700 MT for 2016/17 (plus 6,000 MT for 2017/18), being up 10 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 1,869,700 MT were down 19 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average, but still pretty good for the time of year. The USDA also announced another 136,000 MT of soybean sales to unknown destinations under the daily reporting system. CONAB’s Brazilian soybean production estimate of 102.4 MMT was down only slightly from 102.6 MMT in November and represents around a 7.0% increase from Brazil’s 2015/16 total of 95.4 MMT. The USDA ag attaché in Brazil estimates this year’s soybean crop lower than that at 101 MMT, with exports at 57 MMT. The USDA are out tomorrow with their December WASDE report, and we can probably attribute most of today's action to profit-taking and book-aquaring ahead of that. The range of guesses for US soybean ending stocks is 428 to 514 million bu versus the previous 480 million, with an average of 474 million. Jan 17 Soybeans closed at $10.27, down 22 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans closed at $10.37 3/4, down 21 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal closed at $312.40, down $6.80; Dec 16 Soybean Oil closed at 37.05, down 67 points.
Corn: The market closed with losses of around 4 cents heading into tomorrow's USDA report. Weekly export sales of 1,495,400 MT for 2016/17 were up 96 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. That easily beat trade estimates that were running at around 700,000 and 1,000,000 MT. Exports of 1,366,400 MT were up 69 percent from the previous week and 94 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (292,000 MT), Mexico (256,700 MT), Taiwan (214,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (182,000 MT) and Peru (72,800 MT). Brazil planting is almost 93% complete while Argentina is still lagging at 48% complete. Brazil's CONAB is estimating summer corn crop potential of 2016/17 at 27.06 MMT, down from the November forecast of 28.55 MMT, but still a 7% increase over last year. Brazil full crop estimate was essentially unchanged from November at 82.8 MMT, a sharp increase versus 2015/16. CNGOIC lowered it's forecast China's on corn consumption at 197 MMT, well below the USDA's 226 MMT. Trade ideas for tomorrow's world corn ending stocks estimate from the USDA is 219.2 MMT, which would be 1 MMT larger than the November report. The Russian corn harvest is 86.8% complete at 14.8 MMT. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.46 1/2, down 4 cents; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.53 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher heading into tomorrow's report, possibly due to short-covering in Chicago. Weekly export sales of 503,100 MMT for delivery in marketing year 2016/17 were up 4 percent from the previous week, but down 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. That was at the upper end of the expected 300,000 MT to 500,000 MT though. Exports of 555,500 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and 59 percent from the prior 4-week average. India announced that they were to cut their current wheat import duty from 10% to zero. Trade ideas are that they could end up importing around 3 MMT, and possibly as much as 5 MMT, on the back of the move before new crop begins harvesting again in late Mar/April. That would be their largest imports since 2006/07. Australia and Ukraine are likely to be the main beneficiaries, but at least it would remove some surplus stocks from the global market. Sub-zero temperatures on the US Plains keep getting a muted mention, but the trade seems relaxed about winter kill ideas for now. Saudi Arabia are tendering for 715 TMT of hard wheat for Feb/Apr shipment, Ethiopia are in for 70 TMT of optional origin milling wheat. The average of pre-report trade estimate for 2016/17 global ending stocks is 250.3 MMT in tomorrow's report. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $3.90 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $3.87, up 5 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.35 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Mostly A Touch Firmer
The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat unchanged at GBP135.80/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne higher at EUR162.25/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was up EUR0.75/tonne to EUR164.25/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed fell EUR2.75/tonne to EUR409.25/tonne.
Russia said that they'd exported 4.1 MMT of grains in November - a record for the month - taking their Jul/Nov season-to-date total to 17.5 MMT. Wheat accounted for 2.9 MMT of last month's total, along with 857 TMT of corn and 764 TMT of barley.
The 2016 Russian bunker weight harvest is now said to have reached 125.3 MMT off 97% of the planned area. Wheat is 98.2% harvested at 75.9 MMT, barley 97.3% done at 19.1 MMT and corn 86.8% complete at 14.8 MMT.
Saudi Arabia are tendering for 715 TMT of hard wheat for Feb/Apr shipment, at least some of which should come from the EU. Ethiopia are in for 70 TMT of optional origin milling wheat (Black Sea origin may be the favourite for this one).
India have scrapped their 10% import duty on wheat at least through to the end of the season (March) due to the lower quality and production of this year's crop.
Indian imports might rise as high as 3 MMT in 2016/17 (Apr/Mar) on the back of the news, traders said.
Commerzbank forecast Chicago wheat prices at $4.10/bushel in Q4 of 2017, with those in Paris at EUR160/tonne, significantly lower than where both currently trade.
"The supply situation for many key agriculturals looks set to remain comfortable in 2017, meaning limited potential for prices to recover," they said, according to a report on Agrimoney.
"Conditions have been good so far, which points to another record crop next year. Overall, there are hardly any apparent risks to the global wheat supply over the next year now," they added.
Chicago Beans Manage Small Gains, But Rest Of Grains Lower
07/12/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains. The USDA announced the sale of 330,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China. Of the total 66,000 MT is for delivery during the 2016/17 marketing year and 264,000 MT is for delivery during the 2017/18 marketing year. They also announced a sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year. So, the battle between strong nearby demand and record production continues. Whilst the demand from China is there now, there's growing concern that things might not look as rosy in the new year should things escalate between Trump/China and the latter decide to use soybeans as a bargaining tool. There will be plenty of South American soybeans on offer as an alternative by then. Ag Rural said that the Brazilian harvest in Mato Grosso will start early and that the state could harvest 7 MMT of beans in January alone. Dyness and heat in Southern Brazil and Argentina is starting to attract some notice, but has note demonstrated a major threat potential yet. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 1.0 to 1.4 MMT for soybeans. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.49, up 1 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.59 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $319.20, down $1.00; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 37.72, up 10 points.
Corn: Corn closed a touch easier. There's some trade talk of US corn heading for Brazil to shore up their supplies depleted by aggressive early season exports and a slump in safrinha production in 2015/16. Prospects look much better for 2016/17, but the crop's not made yet. Argentine weather leans a bit friendly. US weekly ethanol production rose to 1.023 million barrels per day last week (the highest production level in 14 weeks), up from 1.012 million the previous week. Ethanol demand remains unusually strong as margins remain favourable. Year to date ethanol export shipments are up 19% from last year. This could mean that the USDA will increase their corn for ethanol usage estimate in Friday’s WASDE report. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are running at around 700,000 and 1,000,000 MT. French corn exports in October were 435,000 MT versus 590,000 MT a year previously. The largest buyers were the Netherlands (115.1 TMT), Spain (113.5 TMT), Germany (55.3 TMT) and Belgium (54.6 TMT). According to the forecasts of FranceAgriMer, in the current season corn exports will fall to 5.14 MMT (-15.7% compared to last season). Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.50 1/2, down 1/2 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58, down 2 1/2 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed lower across the three exchanges. Cold temperatures continue to be forecast for US plains, but with large supplies, the trade is not too concerned. China said it sold just 6% of the 74,292 of US SRW wheat reserves offered up for sale at auction yesterday. Japan are tendering for 123,754 MT of US/Canadian wheat in their regular weekly tender. French soft wheat exports are struggling. Total October French wheat exports, including those within the EU, were down 31% at 685,000 MT. Season-to-date non-EU exports are 32% lower at just 1.8 MMT from what is usually the bloc's largest foreign seller. The Russian Ag Ministry said that this year's harvest in bunker weight was 125.1 MMT so far off 97% of the planned area. They now foresee a final clean weight harvest of 117.5-118.0 MMT, using around a 6% reduction for cleaning/screening. That would potentially give them a wheat crop of around 71.5 MMT in clean weight and see barley production at around 18 MMT (USDA 72 MMT and 18 MMT respectively). Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales for wheat are 300,000 MT and 500,000 MT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.86 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.82, down 5 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.34, down 4 3/4 cents.
EU Grains End Mostly Higher
At the finish Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP0.60/tonne at GBP135.80/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR2.50/tonne higher at EUR162.00/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn ended EUR0.50/tonne firmer at EUR163.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR2.00/tonne easier at EUR412.00/tonne.
Palm oil was lower in Malaysia on profit-taking and with no major demand festivals coming up. Still, it's too early to day that the bull trend appears to be over. One analyst today raised their forecast for crude palm oil prices from 2,450 ringgit to 2,725 (+11%). They cite the strong US dollar, low stock levels and the effects of the US bio fuels mandate as well as the seasonal low production cycle in Q1 of 2017.
Talk persists that French growers might end up planting 5% more wheat for 2017 due to failed/never planted autumn rapeseed.
French wheat exports to non-EU destinations in October were poor at 293,000 MT versus 348,000 MT in September (-16%). This was also the lowest October volume since 2007. Season-to-date non-EU exports are 32% lower at just 1.8 MMT from what is usually the bloc's largest foreign seller.
Total October French wheat exports, including those within the EU, were down 31% at 685,000 MT.
French wheat imports in October on the other hand more than doubled to 192,000 MT, taking the season-to-date total to 435,000 MT. Bulgaria was the largest supplier in October with 131,000 MT.
Ukraine said that they'd exported 18.8 MMT of grains so far this season, including 10.2 MMT of wheat, 4.6 MMT of corn and 4.0 MMT of barley.
The Russian Ag Ministry said that this year's harvest in bunker weight was 125.1 MMT so far off 97% of the planned area. They now foresee a final clean weight harvest of 117.5-118.0 MMT, using around a 6% reduction for cleaning/screening. That would potentially give them a wheat crop of around 71.5 MMT in clean weight and see barley production at around 18 MMT (USDA 72 MMT and 18 MMT respectively).
IKAR said that Russian November wheat exports were a record high for the month at 2.7 MMT.
Chicago Close -Tuesday
06/12/16 -- Beans closed higher, there was no "Turnaround Tuesday" today even if we did finish well off the intra-day highs. The USDA announced the sale of 198,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year, along with 246,000 MT to "unknown" and 132,000 MT to "unknown" for delivery during the 2017/18 marketing year. Stats Canada released a Canadian soybean production estimate of 6.46 MMT against the expected 6.2 MMT. European rapeseed prices are hitting 2 1/2 year highs on tight availability and already early concerns over plantings for 2017. Brazilian weather conditions look very good, Argentina less so. Brazil is 90% planted versus 88% last year and 80% on average at this time. The Argentine weather service is saying there's a high probability of Dec/Jan/Feb being drier than normal in central areas and Buenos Aires province, with temps normal to above normal. Jan 17 Soybeans closed at $10.47 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans closed at $10.57 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal closed at $320.20, up $2.50; Dec 16 Soybean Oil closed at 37.62, up 13 points.
Corn: Corn closed with small gains. The USDA reported sales of 276,000 MT of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. Stats Canada came out with a Canadian 2016 corn output estimate of 13.19 MMT versus the expected 13.1 MMT and compared to 13.56 MMT in 2015. Net US ethanol exports set an all-time record for the month of October and were the highest single month net export volume in 5 years at 122 million gallons the month before last. This was led by big sales to Canada and Brazil in the amounts of 35 million gallons and 43 million gallons respectively, reported FCStone. US DDG exports for October were slightly above the volume in September at 1.005 MMT. China continues to be a small customer compared to past years with only 124.7 TMT for the month, they add. Argentine weather remains a concern, although early calls on production are around 25-27% higher due to a sharp increase in plantings. Romania reported that it's 2016 corn harvest was down 5.6% on last year at 8.47 MMT due to a dry summer. In Russia, corn harvesting is 85.8% complete at 14.6 MMT. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.51, up 1 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.60 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. Stats Canada put total Canadian wheat production at 31.7 MMT on a national average yield of 53.2 bu/acre. The trade was only expecting production at 30.7 MMT. This is also now 200,000 MT higher than the USDA's November estimate. ABARES ahev the Australian crop at 32.64 MMT versus the USDA’s 28.3 MMT estimate in November. Ikar cut their Russian wheat export forecast from 29 MMT to 28.5 MMT (USDA: 30.0 MMT) citing unfavourable weather and its impact on logistics, and intensified competition. "When the USDA first posited the export number for Russia it said it was a very aggressive number that required near perfection to achieve," said FCStone. Tunisia were said to have bought 117,000 MT of soft wheat for Jan/Feb shipment in a tender, along with 55,000 MT of feed barley, both of optional origin. Traders surmise that the wheat may have been most likely of Argentine or Russian origin. China only sold 15% of the 2.8 MMT of wheat reserves offered up for sale at auction. Jordan were said to have bought 50,000 MT of milling wheat of optional origin in a tender. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $3.89 1/2, up 1/4 cent; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $3.87, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.38 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents.
EU Grains Closing Comments - Tuesday
06/12/16 -- EU grains closed mostly mixed. Paris wheat rebounded from yesterday's contract lows and rapeseed marched on to new highs.
At the close Jan 17 London wheat was down GBP0.50/tonne at GBP135.20/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR3.00/tonne higher at EUR159.50/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was EUR0.25/tonne firmer at EUR163.00/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR1.50/tonne to EUR414.00/tonne.
Rapeseed continues to hit new highs, with prices currently at their best levels since April 2014, on reduced production and stocks this year and concerns already over the state of autumn plantings in countries like the UK, France and Ukraine.
Strong demand for soybeans is adding support for rapeseed, along with steady global soybean and palm oil prices.
Tunisia were said to have bought 117,000 MT of soft wheat for Jan/Feb shipment in a tender, along with 55,000 MT of feed barley, both of optional origin. Traders surmise that the wheat may have been most likely of Argentine or Russian origin.
Romania reported that it's 2016 corn harvest was down 5.6% on last year at 8.47 MMT due to a dry summer. That's also 25% below the bumper crop achieved in 2014.
Kazakhstan said that they'd produced a 23.68 MMT in bunker weight, or 21 MMT in clean weight, grain crop this year. Wheat production will account for around 16 MMT of that clean weight total (the USDA are currently at 16.5 MMT). The USDA issue revised global S&D estimates on Friday.
Ikar cut their Russian wheat export forecast from 29 MMT to 28.5 MMT (USDA: 30.0 MMT) citing unfavorable weather and its impact on logistics, and intensified competition.
"When the USDA first posited the export number for Russia it said it was a very aggressive number that required near perfection to achieve," said FCStone.
Still, if they don't export it this year it will still be there as carryover stocks running into 2017/18.
The Russian Ag Ministry said that this year's wheat harvest was 98.2% complete at 75.9 MMT. Corn harvesting is 85.8% complete at 14.6 MMT.
Ukraine said that it had exported a record more than 1.35 MMT of corn in October, and has the potential to ship out around 18 MMT in total this season, some 9% more than in 2015/16.
Chicago Beans And Corn Start Week On The Offensive
05/12/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with decent gains to start the week, helped out by another set of strong weekly export inspections - 1.91 MMT. Loadings to date are running 4.1 MMT ahead of a year ago vs the 3.1 MMT projected for the full marketing year by the USDA. Adding to the friendly tone was the USDA announcing export sales of 426,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. ABIOVE raised projected Brazilian production to 101.4 MMT (but still lower than the 102 MMT predicted by the USDA). They also cut old crop soybean production by 500,000 MT to 96.1 MMT (96.5 MMT from the USDA). Informa estimated Argentina's new crop at 56 MMT (USDA: 57 MMT). Jan 17 Soybeans closed at $10.43 1/2, up 16 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans closed at $10.53 1/4, up 16 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal closed at $317.70, up $7.00; Dec 16 Soybean Oil closed at 37.49, down 2 points.
Corn: The market closed with strong gains helped by a weaker US dollar and the decent gains posted by crude oil in recent sessions. There also seemed to be an element of "risk on" buying in various commodities maybe associated with the new month. Talk that South Korean buyers have been active buyers of not less than 10 cargoes of US corn in the past few days after global prices hit 2-month lows also leaned friendly. Weekly US export inspections of 1.15 MMT were better than expected too and over 3 times the level a year ago. Loadings to date are running 6.46 MMT over a year ago versus the USDA's projection for full season exports to top last year by 8.32 MMT. Informa was unchanged on Argentine corn production at 36.5 MMT, the same as the USDA. In Russia the corn harvest is 85.8% over at 14.6 MMT. APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports exported 456.4 TMT of corn last week, up from 438.1 TMT the previous week. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.49 1/2, up 12 cents; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.59 1/4, up 12 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, Weekly export inspections came in at 453,633 MT, 85% larger than the previous week but that was a particular poor effort. This week's total was in line with expectations. "Even though this week’s loadings were nearly double a year ago values they are running around where they are normally for this general time period. This creates a situation which will likely cause the year’s total to fall short of the USDA expectations of a yoy increase of 5.44 MMT. So far the year to date numbers is 3 MMT over a year ago," said FCStone. Wheat has been getting some support from cold weather potentially threatening the US winter crop, exposed by little snow cover. ABARES forecast a record Australian wheat harvest of 32.64 MMT this year, up almost 35% on year ago levels due to favourable weather in the east. The Russian Ag Ministry said that their 2016 wheat harvest had now reached 75.9 MMT in bunker weight off 98.2% of the planned area. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $3.89 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $3.90 1/4, up 1/4 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.37 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Lower, But Rapeseed Presses On To New Highs
The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat down GBP1.25/tonne at GBP135.70/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR3.50/tonne lower at EUR156.50/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was down EUR0.75/tonne to EUR162.75/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR2.75/tonne to EUR412.50/tonne.
For rapeseed this was new highest close on the continuous front month chart since April 2014, yet for Dec 16 wheat this was a lifetime contract low!
As the HGCA's Jack Watts said recently, trading London wheat is trading the currency market by proxy. And so it was again today with sterling briefly hitting 1.2040 against the euro, it's best levels since late June after Italy’s Prime Minster conceded defeat in the country’s weekend constitutional referendum.
Sterling also hit an eight-week high against the US dollar today.
Overall though despite recent gains (the pound closed below 1.10 against the single currency as recently as Oct 11), sterling is still 10% lower versus the euro since the Brexit vote. Despite recent falls, Jan 17 London wheat is still up 15% since the UK voted to leave the EU on Ju1 21 - most of that increase being clearly due to currency weakness rather than anything else.
Where the pound goes from here therefore looks like the major contributory factor to the future of London wheat price for the remainder of the season. Further sterling strength will hurt what has so far been a very good start to exports, and will also make newly harvested imported corn cheaper. A return to renewed sterling weakness in 2017 will of course have the opposite effect.
In grain news, Saudi Arabia were said to have bought 945 TMT of feed barley in their tender for 960 TMT, paying from around $178-192/tonne C&F for Jan/Mar shipment.
Australia's ABARES forecast a record wheat harvest of 32.64 MMT this year, up almost 35% on year ago levels due to favourable weather in the east. Barley production will rise 24% despite lower plantings to an also record 10.64 MMT, they said. Canola output was pegged at 3.58 MMT, a 21.6% increase compared to a year ago.
Strategie Grains estimated this year's EU-28 rapeseed crop at 20.08 MMT, down 8.7% on a year ago.
The Russian Ag Ministry said that their 2016 wheat harvest had now reached 75.9 MMT in bunker weight off 98.2% of the planned area. Barley harvesting is 97.3% complete at 19.1 MMT and the corn harvest is 85.8% over at 14.6 MMT.
APK Inform reported that Ukraine seaports increased the volume of their grain exports last week to 922.5 TMT, up from 836.3 TMT the previous week. That included 403.9 TMT of wheat, 456.4 TMT of corn and 62.2 TMT of barley.
Chicago Close - Friday
02/12/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed slightly lower on the day and the best part of 20 cents easier for the week. Oil was down, but still posted decent weekly advances. Weakness in the Brazilian real and Argentine peso are bearish. Brazilian weather conditions look mostly ideal, although they are more mixed in Argentina. The latter is 46% planted compared to 54% last year at this time. There were no news US sales to China today under the daily reporting system. Maybe they are finally switching their attention to South America? Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.27 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.37 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $310.70, down $0.20; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 37.51, down 13 points. For the week that puts nearby beans 18 1/2 cents easier, with meal down $10.10 and oil up 85 points.
Corn: Corn closed around 4-5 cents higher. Ukraine reported their corn harvest to be 90% complete at 24.2 MMT. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that the country's total grain exports so far this season total 18.4 MMT, of which 4.5 MMT is corn. Russia's corn harvest is 85% complete at 14.4 MMT and well on the way to setting a new all-time high. Argentine corn planting is said to be 43% complete on 2.12 million ha. That's only up 2 points on the week and 9 points behind average. FranceAgriMer reported that the French corn harvest is virtually done at 99% complete compared to 98% the week prior and in line with the year on year norm. South Korea’s Nonghyup Feed Group are said to be in the market for as much as 276,000 MT of optional origin corn for March 30th through April 30th delivery. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.37 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.47 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents. For the week Dec 16 corn was 11 3/4 cents weaker and Mar 17 fell 11 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed higher, led by the front end in Chicago. Argentine wheat is 11.1% harvested. Stats Canada are due out with their latest production estimates on Tuesday. The average estimate for all-wheat production puts the Canadian crop at 30.7 MMT, which is the largest in three years. Algeria were said to have bought at least 120,000 MT of durum wheat for Jan/Feb shipment in a tender. Tunisia are in the market for 109,000 MT of soft wheat and 50,000 MT of feed barley. FranceAgriMer reported that 22% of the French winter wheat crop is at the early tillering stage, down from 53% this time a year ago. rench winter wheat rated good to very good was 94%, unchanged from a week ago, but 3 points down on this time in 2015. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.87 1/2, up 16 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.90, up 6 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.43, up 2 cents. For the week nearby Chicago wheat was down 8 1/4 cents, Kansas fell 21 1/4 cents and Minneapolis was up 8 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Lower On The Day And For The Week
At the finish Jan 17 London wheat was down GBP0.30/tonne at GBP136.95/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was down EUR0.25/tonne at EUR160.00/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn ended EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR163.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR1.25/tonne easier at EUR409.75/tonne.
For the week that places London wheat GBP3.80/tonne lower, with Paris wheat down EUR8.25/tonne, corn off EUR3.00/tonne and rapeseed EUR8.00/tonne better.
Sterling was firmer against a weaker US dollar, and a particularly weak euro, pressuring London wheat.
This was the fifth week in a row that the pound has gained on the euro - it's best run in nine months as "hard-Brexit" fears eased a little. The euro is facing an uncertain time ahead, with a variety of European votes, polls and referendums to overcome against the backdrop of the constant fear of a growing "protest vote" in Europe, following the Brexit and Trump surprise successes.
The pound finished the day at a near 3-month euro high and a 2-month peak versus the US dollar.
FranceAgriMer reported that 22% of the French winter wheat crop is at the early tillering stage, down from 53% this time a year ago. Only 35% of their winter barley crop is at the same stage compared to 73% this time last year.
French winter wheat rated good to very good was 94%, unchanged from a week ago, but 3 points down on this time in 2015. Winter barley conditions were also unchanged at 92% (98% a year ago).
In the UK, "About 35% of the planted UK winter wheat area was drilled before the end of September, with the majority of the remaining crops drilled during October, with just small areas (about 5%) drilled during early November," said the HGCA.
"Winter barley crops were drilled in good time, with almost 80% of crops drilled by the end of September and the remainder drilled in early October," they added.
"While winter oilseed rape crops established well in the West of the UK, today’s Crop Development report by ADAS confirms that the same can’t be said for crops in the East. In eastern areas, particularly around Essex, Hertfordshire, Bedfordshire and Cambridge, dry seedbeds meant that crops were often slow to emerge and establish. Oilseed rape crop failures were reported on a number of farms, particularly if cabbage stem flea beetle were active," they warned.
In other news, Ukraine said that their 2016 harvest was now 99% complete at 64.4 MMT. That includes a corn harvest that's 90% complete at 24.2 MMT currently.
Algeria were said to have bought at least 120,000 MT of durum wheat for Jan/Feb shipment in a tender. Tunisia are in the market for 109,000 MT of soft wheat and 50,000 MT of feed barley.
New Highs For EU Rapeseed
01/12/16 -- EU grains closed mostly lower, save for rapeseed which marched on to new highs.
At the close Jan 17 London wheat was down GBP0.75/tonne at GBP137.25/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR1.75/tonne lower at EUR160.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was EUR0.50/tonne easier at EUR164.00/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR3.00/tonne to EUR411.00/tonne.
Another day of sharply higher crude oil prices helped rapeseed push onto levels last seen in April 2014.
Other than that, fresh news was lacking again. Saudi Arabia tendered for 960,000 MT of feed barley for Jan/Mare shipment and Tunisia are in for feed barley and soft wheat.
EU soft wheat exports only advanced by 247,188 MT this week, according to the latest missive from Brussels. That takes the season to date total to a little over 10 MMT.
The EU Commission forecast full season exports at 24 MMT, down 1 MMT from previously.
Chicago Close - Wednesday
30/11/16 -- South American weather looks more or less ideal. The USDA announced 123,000 MT of soybeans sold to China for delivery in the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are a wide looking 800,000-1,900,000 MT. Jan 17 Soybeans closed at $10.32 1/4, down 10 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans closed at $10.41 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal closed at $316.40, down $5.30; Dec 16 Soybean Oil closed at $36.79, up 43 points.>
Corn: The corn market closed around unchanged. The big news today came out of the OPEC meeting where it was agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels/day. Weekly US ethanol production was down 2,000 barrels/day, but still over 1 million barrels/day. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales numbers are between 650,000 MT and 1.8 MMT versus 1,688,800 MT a week ago. The Russian corn harvest is 83% done at 13.9 MMT. Ukraine's corn harvest stands at 22.9 MMT off 86% of the planned area. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.36 3/4, unchanged; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.48 1/2, down 1/2 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, with spring wheat in Minneapolis again the strongest leg of the complex. Jordan are in the market for 50,000 MT of wheat from optional origin. Japan are tendering for 158,514 MT of food wheat of US, Canadian and Australian origin in their regular weekly tender. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for wheat are 300,000 MT to 800,000 MT versus 712,500 MT a week ago. Rusagrotrans said that Russia had exported 3.95 MMT of grains in November - a record volume for the month and 26% more than in Nov 2015. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.80 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.91 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.39 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents.
Rapeseed Hits New Highs On OPEC Production Cut
The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat down GBP0.55/tonne at GBP138.00/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was up a euro at EUR162.00/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was down EUR0.25/tonne to EUR164.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR3.50/tonne to EUR408.00/tonne.
The most noteworthy item of the day was OPEC's decision to cut crude oil production for the first time in 8 years. That sent crude surging, taking rapeseed along with it for the ride.
Paris rapeseed futures subsequently settled at their highest level since Apr 2014.
Rapeseed oil prices are up 10% on a year ago, and soybean oil prices have surged 21% during this time, note the HGCA.
"For rape oil, the increases are a further signal of the tight rapeseed situation we find ourselves in this year, as well as being boosted by other vegetable oils including palm oil," they say.
Earlier this week Oil World estimated EU Nov 1 rapeseed stocks down 12% y-o-y at a 5-year low of 13.4 MMT.
In other news, Rusagrotrans said that Russia had exported 3.95 MMT of grains in November - a record volume for the month and 26% more than in Nov 2015.
Total season to date exports (Jul/Nov) still slightly lag year ago levels however at 17.72 MMT versus 17.92 MMT.
The Russian Ag Ministry said that their 2016 wheat harvest was 98.2% complete at 75.9 MMT. Corn harvesting is 83% done at 13.9 MMT.
Chicago Ends Lower In "Turnaround Tuesday"
29/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower in "Turnaround Tuesday" style. There was probably also an element of book-squaring an profit-taking to coincide with month end. The USDA published their baseline proijections, pegging US soybean acreas at 85.5 million next year, with yields at 47.9 bu/acre and 2017/18 ending stocks of 396 million bushels. Brazil is reported to be around 75% planted nationally with beans for their 2016/17 harvest, with leading state of Mato Grosso 97.6% done and Parana 95% complete. The crop is said to be generally in very good condition at this early stage, Argentina is 33.7% planted versus around 40% on average. There were no new USDA announcements of soybean sales today under the daily reporting system. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.42 1/2, down 13 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.51, down 13 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $321.70, down $4.20; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 36.36, down 35 points.
Corn: The market closed with heavy losses. The USDA's baseline numbers for next year were plantings of 90 million acres, a 170.8 bu/acre yield and 2017/18 ending stocks of 2.298 billion bushels. Brazil's full season corn is reported to be 99% planted in Parana and 90% done in Rio Grande do Sul. Argentina is 41% complete versus 49% on average at this time. Brazil's corn exports could jump 62% next season, according to their National Grain Association. Russia reported their 2016 total grain harvest to be 96.7% complete at 124.4 MMT. Corn harvesting is 82.6% done at 13.9 MMT. Ukraine's harvest is now 95% complete at 62 MMT, including 22.9 MMT of corn off 86% of the planned area. The French corn harvest is over with production expected to be no higher than 11.5 MMT this year, according to Agritel. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.36 3/4, down 11 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.49, down 9 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market finished lower across the board. The USDA early baseline projections for wheat next year is an acreage of 48.5 million, a 47.1 bu/acre yield and 2017/18 ending stocks adding up to 993 million bushels. Egypt's GASC bought 240,000 MT of Russian wheat for early Jan shipment paying a little bit less than previously. There were no US offers. Strategie Grains forecast a recovery in EU-28 soft wheat production to 152.9 MMT next year, some 8 MMT above output in 2016. They see EU-28 soft wheat exports in 2017/18 at 30 MMT, up 5.7 MMT on this season. At the same time, exports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan collectively are currently expected to fall by some 2 MMT in 2017/18, as production there declines to trend-levels, said Agrimoney. Ukraine winter wheat is said to be 95% planted. Russia is just about finished. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.84, down 5 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.98 3/4, down 12 3/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.34 1/4, down 7 cents.
EU Grains Close - Tuesday
At the finish Jan 17 London wheat was down GBP0.95/tonne at GBP138.55/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was down EUR4.25/tonne at EUR161.00/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn ended EUR1.25/tonne lower at EUR164.75/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR1.75/tonne higher at EUR404.50/tonne.
The GBP/EUR remains hovering around the 1.1750 mark, having fallen below 1.10 in recent weeks, keeping a lid on London wheat price rally attempts. Is this just a corrective period of appreciation, not to be confused with a long term recovery?
Analysts say that first resistance for the pound is now around the 1.1875 level, with stronger resistance at 1.20. A push above the latter would be needed to argue the case for more extended sterling upside.
A drop below 1.1675 would be needed to signal that an interim top has been seen meanwhile, they opine.
Strategie Grains forecast a recovery in EU-28 soft wheat production to 152.9 MMT next year, some 8 MMT above output in 2016, even if below the levels achieved in 2015 (a record 159.4 MMT) and 2014.
They see EU-28 soft wheat exports in 2017/18 at 30 MMT, up 5.7 MMT on this season.
Egypt's GASC bought 240,000 MT of Russian wheat in a tender for Jan 2-11 shipment at prices slightly below those paid last time.
Russia reported their 2016 total grain harvest to be 96.7% complete at 124.4 MMT. Corn harvesting is 82.6% done at 13.9 MMT.
Ukraine's harvest is now 95% complete at 62 MMT, including 22.9 MMT of corn off 86% of the planned area.
Chicago Beans Extend Winning Run
28/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with fair gains, but also well off session highs which had them more than 20 cents up at once stage. Weekly export inspections came in at a very respectable total of more than 2 MMT, down more than 20% on last week, but still larger than the same week a year ago. This was towards the top end of trade expectations. There were no new USDA sales announcements today. The usual Friday weekly commitment of traders report was delayed until today due to last week's Thanksgiving Day holiday. Managed money was seen adding 15,467 contracts to their net long position for the week through to Tuesday night. They will have added more since then. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.56, up 10 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.64 1/2, up 10 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $325.90, up $5.10; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 36.71, up 5 points.
Corn: Corn closed around unchanged. Weekly export inspections of 800,967 MT were towards the lower end of what the trade was anticipating. In Russia, corn harvesting is 82% done at 13.7 MMT. Ukrain is 84% complete at 22.4 MMT. Both are stepping up their foreign corn shipments. APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports exported 836.3 TMT of grains last week, up from 616.7 TMT the previous week. That included 438.1 TMT (52%) of corn. Russia's grain exports via seaports totalled 436.1 TMT last week including 67.7 TMT of corn. Brazilian weather conditions remain near perfect. Chinese customs data shows that they imported 2.99 MMT of corn Jan/Oct, a 35% reduction compared to a year previously. Almost all of that came from Ukraine. The commitment of traders report shows managed money reducing their net short in corn futures and options by 24,762 contracts for the week through to Tuesday night. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.48 1/2, down 3/4 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58 1/4, unchanged.
Wheat: Wheat closed mixed, with Chicago the loser and Kansas and Minneapolis around unchanged to as much as 7 cents higher. Weekly export inspections of only 221,985 MT were poor. Chinese customs data shows that they stepped up their wheat imports Jan/Oct to a cumulative 3.12 MMT, up 22% on the same period in 2015. That largest suppliers were Australia, Canada and the US. This came at the expense of barley imports however which were down 57% at 4.18 MMT. The largest suppliers here were Australia, France and Canada. The USDA put 58% of the US winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, unchanged on a week ago. They said that 92% of the crop is emerged, exactly in line with the 5-year average. The commitment of traders report shows managed money reducing their overall net short in CBOT wheat by 18,131 contracts for the week through to Tuesday night. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.89 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.11 1/2, up 1/4 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.41 1/4, up 7 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Lower
28/11/16 -- EU grains closed mixed but mostly lower. Fresh news was once again scarce.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was down GBP1.25/tonne at GBP139.50/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR3.00/tonne lower at EUR165.25/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was EUR0.50/tonne easier at EUR166.00/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR1.00/tonne to EUR402.75/tonne.
Nov 17 London wheat failed to hold onto gains above the GBP140/tonne mark, which looks like resistance. Paris wheat and corn look range-bound in the mid EUR160's.
Rapeseed did manage to hold above the key EUR400/tonne level against a background of tightness in availability in the EU. Oil Word estimated EU-28 Nov 1 rapeseed stocks at 13.4 MMT, down 12% on this time a year ago and a 5-year low.
Russia's grain exports via seaports totalled 436.1 TMT last week, down slightly from the previous week. That total included 351.8 TMT (80.7%) of wheat, 67.7 TMT of corn and 13.6 TMT of barley.
YTD exports are still lagging year ago levels, but are forecast to hold up during the second half of the season. Rusagrotrans forecast November grain exports at 3.7-3.8 MMT, a 20% increase on a year ago. Wheat will account for around 2.55-2.60 MMT of that total (up 16% versus 2015), with barley a further 250 TMT and corn an additional 850-900 TMT, they predict.
December imports will hold, and roughly match year ago levels, at 3.8 MMT, they estimate.
The Russian Ag Ministry said that their harvest had now reached 124.3 MMT off 96.7% of the planned area. Wheat and barley harvesting is almost over, corn harvesting is 82% done at 13.7 MMT.
They said that Russian grain exports (to Nov 21) were down 0.8% at 15.82 MMT. Wheat accounts for 78.7% of that total at 12.45 MMT.
Ukraine said that their 2016 harvest was 95% complete at 61.6 MMT. Corn harvesting is 84% done at 22.4 MMT.
APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports exported 836.3 TMT of grains last week, up from 616.7 TMT the previous week. That included 327.3 TMT of wheat, 438.1 TMT of corn and 70.9 TMT of barley.
Algeria tendered for 50,000 MT of hard wheat of optional origin for Jan/Feb shipment and 50-75,000 MT of feed barley for January delivery.
Chicago Close - Friday
25/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed higher the day after Thanksgiving, as is frequently the case. Strong weekly export sales of 1,898,600 MT for 2016/17 were up 35 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 2,808,200 MT were down 7 percent from the previous week but still mighty impressive. China too over 2 MMT of this week's total. Other than that fresh news was light and trade was thin with many dealers taking the opportunity to book a long weekend. Jan 17 Soybeans closed at $10.46, up 11 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans closed at $10.54 1/2, up 11 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal closed at $320.80, up $4.40; Dec 16 Soybean Oil closed at 36.66, down 19 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around a cent or so lower. As with beans, fresh news was thin on the ground, and so too were traders. Argentina reported that their corn crop was 41.1% planted of the anticipated 4.9 million ha. Weekly export sales came in at 1,688,800 MT for 2016/17, up 2 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. The trade was expecting sales of 900 TMT to 1.2 MMT. Exports of 591,800 MT were up 9 percent from the previous week, but down 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. FranceAgriMer said that the French corn harvest was 98% complete, up 3 points in a week and the same as this time a year ago. In Russia, corn harvesting is now 80.5% complete at 13.4 MMT. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.49 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.58 1/4, down 1 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, higher in Minneapolis and lower in Kansas and Chicago. Minneapolis gets a boost from the continued problems experienced by Canadian growers getting the last of their spring wheat harvest in. Some 6% of the crop is still in the field in Saskatchewan. For once weekly export sales were much better than expected at 712,500 MT for delivery in marketing year 2016/17. These were up 19 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 379,500 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week, but up 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Argentina's wheat crop is reported at 17.7% harvested. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $3.95 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.11 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.34 1/4, up 7 cents.
EU Grains Post Mostly Small Weekly Gains
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat up GBP0.95/tonne at GBP140.75/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR168.25/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was also unchanged EUR166.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was down EUR2.25/tonne to EUR401.75/tonne.
For the week London wheat gained GBP0.85/tonne, Paris wheat and corn both added EUR0.75/tonne and rapeseed advanced EUR4.25/tonne.
Many traders in the US remained absent following yesterday's Thanksgiving Day holiday, so activity was light and news was thin.
FranceAgriMer said that the French corn harvest was 98% complete, up 3 points in a week and the same as this time a year ago.
French winter wheat crop conditions good to very good fell one point from a week ago to 94%, which is 4 points below this time last year. Winter barley crop conditions were unchanged at 92% good to very good (versus 98% a year ago).
Russia said that they'd harvested 124 MMT of grains off 96.6% of the planned area. Corn harvesting is now 80.5% complete at 13.4 MMT.
Canadian growers are struggling to wrap up the last of their 2016 harvest with 6% of their spring wheat and 4% of canola crops still remaining in the field in the province of Saskatchewan as of Nov 21.
Little Change To EU Grains In Thin Trade
At the finish Nov 16 London wheat was unchanged at GBP139.80/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was down EUR0.50/tonne at EUR168.25/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn ended EUR0.25/tonne firmer at EUR166.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR2.00/tonne higher at EUR404.00/tonne.
With America shut fresh news was always likely to be thin on the ground, and so it proved.
EU soft wheat exports reached 481,000 MT this week, up 39% on a week ago and taking the season to date total to 9.4 MMT, a 9% increase on this time a year ago.
EU barley exports were only 51,000 MT, down 55% on last week.
Russia reported their 2016 corn harvest to be 79.6% complete at 13.3 MMT. The last of the spring wheat and barley harvests are also still being wrapped up.
Russian winter plantings for the 2017 harvest are just about done on 17.3 million ha, with crops mostly covered by a thin layer of snow.
This is around 1 million ha more than last year and a new record high, say Agritel. Winter wheat will consist of around 14 million ha of this total, they say.
The euro remains weak, supporting Paris grains. The pound hovers around 1.1750 versus the single currency - a 2 1/2 month high.
US markets remain closed Friday morning but will trade a holiday-shortened session Friday afternoon (London time).
Soyoil Surges On EPA News
23/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher in pre-Thanksgiving trade as soyoil surged following the decision by the EPA to raise the biofuels requirements to 19.28 billion gallons for 2017 versus 18.11 billion this year. Strong Chinese crush margins and the weak Chinese yuan added support. The prospect of another record Brazilian crop down the line caps gains though. Rabobank forecast US soybean prices of $10.70/bushel this spring. Funds were estimated as finishing net buyers of 3,000 lots of soybeans on the day. Jan 17 Soybeans closed at $10.34 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans closed at $10.43, up 4 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal closed at $316.40, down $8.50; Dec 16 Soybean Oil closed at 36.85, up 237 points.
Corn: The market closed with little change heading into the holiday. Markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving and trade will be thin on Friday. The US Energy Dept reported daily ethanol production last week was 1.014 million barrels, down 3,000 bpd on the previous week. South Korea's KOCOPIA are in the market for 50,000 MT of optional origin corn for March shipment. South Africa are forecasting corn plantings up 35% this year following drought reduced sowings a year ago. In Russia, where corn harvesting is ongoing, the Ag Ministry reported things at 78.8% complete for a crop of 13.1 MMT to date. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.50 3/4, down 1/4 cent; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.59 1/4, up 1/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market ended mixed but mostly lower. The Indonesia Ag Ministry is aiming for no corn imports in 2017, as a drive towards achieving self-sufficiency. They could import 35% more feed wheat as a result it is thought. Jordan cancelled their tender for 100,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat and immediately re-tendered for the same. Bangladesh are said to have agreed to buy 200,000 MT of Russian wheat. Japan bought 20,300 MT of feed wheat of optional origin for December shipment. Rabobank forecast CBOT wheat prices in the final quarter of 2017 at $4.60/bushel. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.01 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.15 1/2, down 1 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.27 1/4, up 1/4 cent.
EU Rapeseed Smashes Through Key Resistance
23/11/16 -- EU grains closed mixed amid a general lack of news. Most noteworthy movement of the day was Paris rapeseed finally smashing through key resistance at EUR400/tonne on front month Feb 17.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was unchanged at GBP138.75/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR168.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was unchanged at EUR166.25/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed had gained EUR7.75/tonne to EUR406.00/tonne.
It was April 2014 that we last saw Paris rapeseed close this high. "Rapeseed has been boosted by the surge of veg oils after the decision from US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to raise the biofuels requirements to 19.28 billion gallons for 2017 vs 18.11 this year. This volume will be spread between 15 billion of conventional biofuel which is mainly produced from corn and 4.28 billion of biodiesel produced from soy oil," noted Agritel.
Malaysian palm oil futures touched 4-year highs and US soybean oil prices surged on the news. US markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving.
Otherwise fresh news was generally lacking. Spain said that they'd imported 1.25 MMT of grains in September, a 19% reduction versus the same month in 2015. Wheat imports were 878.8 TMT versus 967.7 TMT a year previously.
Algeria tendered for 50,000 MT of feed barley for January shipment. Jordan cancelled their tender for 100,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat and immediately re-tendered for the same as is their want. Bangladesh are said to have agreed to buy 200,000 MT of Russian wheat.
Russia said that their 2016 grain harvest had limped to 96.4% complete at 123.5 MMT in bunker weight. Wheat accounts for 75.8 MMT of that total and barley a further 19.1 MMT. Harvesting of both is nearly over. Corn harvesting is ongoing at 78.8% complete for a crop of 13.1 MMT to date.
Winter plantings for the 2017 harvest are just about complete in Russia at 99.8% done.
Rusagrotrans forecast Russia's first half 2016/17 (Jul/Dec) grain exports at 20.5 MMT, down 1 MMT on the same period in 2015/16.
Ex-farm prices in the North East of England are now amongst the highest in the country and above the level of London futures, said the HGCA. Strong demand from the bioethanol sector seems to be the reason, they noted.
"However, the potential for further gains could be more limited as the gap between imported maize and UK wheat prices is now narrowing. The wider price gap between the North East and other regions also increases the incentive to haul wheat into the region," they added.
Chicago Soybeans Extend Rally
22/11/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 10 cents higher. There were no daily soybean export sales, but the USDA did announce 30,000 MT of soybean oil for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year. Brazilian soybeans are said to be 77% planted versus 70% a year ago and 76% on average. The top producing state of Mato Grosso is 95.5% done versus 89.7% a year ago. Parana is 90% complete versus 80% a year ago. Argentine beans lag a little, they are 24.2% sown versus 33% on average and 32% this time last year. Funds were credited with being net buyers of 11,000 contracts of soybeans on the day. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.30, up 9 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.38 3/4, up 10 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $324.90, up $5.20; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.48, down 16 points.
Corn: Corn closed around a cent or so higher. Argentina reported that their corn crop was 40.3% planted versus 37% last year and 48% on average at this time. Ukraine reported that their grain harvest was 94% complete at 60.15 MMT. That includes 79% of this year's corn for a crop of 21.03 MMT so far. Russia said that it's harvest was 96.2% complete at 122.8 MMT, including 12.4 MMT of corn (74.8% harvested). The French corn harvest is just about over with a crop of no more than 12 MMT expected according to Agritel. Funds were credited with buying 5,000 contracts of corn during the session. Weekly US ethanol production data from the US Energy Dept is due tomorrow. Output was just over 1 million/day last week. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.51, up 1 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.59, up 1 1/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed mixed. Despite bumper production this year, Russia's exports are lagging year ago levels. SovEcon lowered its forecast for 2016/17 Russian wheat exports to 29 MMT from 30 MMT previously. This year's Russian wheat harvest is said to be 98.1% complete at 75.8 MMT. India are reported to have been active buying Ukraine wheat lately, booking around 1 MMT in recent weeks. Traders there say that this year's Indian wheat harvest was likely only around 88 MMT versus the official government estimate of 93.5 MMT. Taiwan are in the market for 85,000 MT of US milling wheat for Jan/Feb shipment. Around 10% of the spring wheat crop in Canada is thought likely to be still out in the fields. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.07 1/4, down 3 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.16 1/2, up 2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.27, up 1/4 cent.
