Chicago closing comments, soy and corn up, wheat mixed, rice limit down
Soggy weather in the U.S. corn belt pushed CBOT cornfutures higher Wednesday, although gains were limited by outside markets,traders said. Heavy rains have caused flooding and will require farmers to replant throughout the southern corn belt, particularly central Illinois, analysts say. Weakness in crude oil limited corn's gains, traders said. July corn finished up6 1/2 cents to $6.14 1/2
U.S. wheat prices closed mostly higher on spillover strength from firm CBOT corn and soybeans. Fundamentals for wheat look bearish amid expectations for a record world crop in 2008-09, reports of solid early harvest results in the U.S, and rains in Australia. July wheat rose 2 1/2 cents to$7.53 per bushel, KCBT July wheat jumped 2 cents to $7.90, and MGE July wheat tumbled 35 cents to $9.40.
CBOT soybean futures rallied Wednesday, climbing to multi-week highs on bullish demand outlooks, planting and emergence concerns and technical momentum. Prices rose steadily throughout the day, with no drastic movements except for a little boost at the end of the day, analysts said. However, soybeans rode technical momentum past some recent highs, andwere supported by rainy weather and forecasts for more rain, analysts added. Meanwhile, the market still remains under the spectre of Argentina, as the strike in Argentina continues to be supportive. The strike has caused "very firm" Brazil export prices, which is adding to the strike's effect on prices, aCBOT floor broker said.
New crop futures spiked on planting concerns, as Midwest rains push back the seeding of the final 18 to 20 million acres of U.S. soybeans that are already behind there average pace for this time of year, traders added. July soybeans settled 29 1/2 cents higher at $13.89, and Nov soybeans ended 26 cents higher at $13.79 3/4 a bushel.
CBOT rice futures ended limit down on speuclative selling and improved supply prospects, an analyst said. Price Futures VicePresident Jack Scoville said falling Thai rice prices pressured CBOT rice. Hea dded that the world supply situation does not seem as urgent as it once did. "For the minute, it seems like things are a little better," Scoville said. "I'm not too sure that will last for the long term." A trader said the selling started in Nov and spilled over into July. July rice closed down 50 cents to $18.61 per hundredweight, while Sep and Nov both ended down 50 cents to $18.08.
Friday night wrap-up, US grains reverse Thurs losses
Chicago grains & oilseeds closed firmer across the board Friday, effectively reversing Thursday night's heavy losses. Crude oil had a bad case of the jitters Thursday which dragged everything else down with it. Having stabilised Friday, grains followed suit.
Nearby beans closed around 40c firmer with new crop months around 30c higher. Old crop/new crop spreading was a feature as a strong crush and nearby export demand served as the catalyst that allowed the front end of the market to gain at the expense of deferred-month futures. Nevertheless futures remain in a sideways pattern as a glance at the chart to the right shows.
Corn closed around 17c firmer, rallying strongly in the last half hour of the session (see chart below) on damage limitation ahead of the weekend. Heavy rainfall in the western U.S. corn belt, particularly Iowa, was raising concerns about continued emergence delays, and the likelihood that many farmers will have to replant, which at this late stage would likely result in lower yields. As well as it's normal planting progress report Monday will see the USDA's first crop condition ratings of the season for the emerging corn crop. The portion of the crop rated good-to-excellent is expected to be well below the average of 70% for the first report of the season.
Wheat closed around 18c firmer, dragged higher by beans & corn late in the session (see chart below). Whilst the hotter, drier forecast for the US across the weekend & into the next week is seen as being largely beneficial for corn & beans hotter temperatures in the Plains during the next five days could increase stress to wheat.
Midwest weather warms up
They'll be talking "heat stressing developing crops" before long you watch.
Tom Skilling of WGN reports that it's unlikely daytime temperatures are going to flirt again with 50 degrees -- as they did Tuesday -- anytime soon. Chicago readings rebounded to 62 degrees Wednesday and are predicted to surge to 73 degrees Thursday and 80 degrees Friday. The big atmospheric changes behind the warm-up show no sign of abating in the coming two weeks -- a period in which nearly all daily average temperatures are likely to finish near or warmer than normal. It's a welcome change which more nearly parallels the warmth
observed here a year ago when the high reach 88 degrees.
The three month "meteorological summer" season begins as June arrives Sunday -- and not a moment too soon. Three out of four days this month have been cooler than normal.
Here's the outlook for Chicago for the first half of June:
Chicago latest
At 16.05BST wheat down 14 1/2c, beans down 3 1/2c, corn down 12c.
Chicago opening
Not as strong as expected on beans & corn. Latest corn down 3c, beans up 6c, wheat up 8c.
Chicago closing comments
Beans closed around 30-40c higher supported by crude & a weaker dollar. Forecast heavy rains potentially impairing weekend planting progress and the ongoing Argy uncertainty also added some support as traders built in some long weekend premium.
Corn closed modestly higher with gains of around 4c in quiet pre-holiday trade, crude supports. Planting progress due out Tuesday night is expected to show 85-90% done.
Wheat closed around 7c firmer on short-covering ahead of the long weekend although 5/6 mmonth lows were set earlier in the session. Widespread rains will favour the spring crop.
Early call on Chicago
Corn futures are expected to open 1 to 3 higher; soybeans 15 to 17 higher; wheat 3 to 4 higher. Prices were higher in overnight trade on firming energy markets. Technical strength is also supporting prices. There could be some profit-taking later in the session ahead of the long weekend, however.
Chicago closing comments
CBOT soy futures soared out of the starting blocks Friday, with July soybeans and November soybeans leaping to 3 and 10 week highs respectively. The extension of the Argentine farmers' strike is seen increasing demand for tight projected old crop inventories, with new crop contracts buoyed by ideas of less acreage shifting to soybeans due to more favourable corn planting outlooks, analysts say. Beans finished well off session highs but still with gains of around 30c.
U.S. wheat futures backpedaled from earlier gains amid some light profit-taking, a grain analyst said. Good crop weather around the world and expectations for a record global crop in 2008-09 are weighing on the markets, he says. "There's nothing really bullish in the market," he says."The winter wheat crop seems to be improving here" in the U.S. hotter, drier weather forecast for the Plains should help advance development of HRW wheat and the warm-up isn't seen as threatening for now, the analyst says. Wheat closed around 4c higher, around 10c off session highs.
CBOT corn futures ended lower on the day amid profit-taking and clear weather forecasts, traders and analysts said. "I don't think people wanted to come in on Monday and see a wide-open weather forecast," said one trader, explaining the profit-taking. He added that crude oil, which had fueled a rally earlier in the day, broke from its high, helping to push corn lower. July corn finished 8 cents lower at $5.91 a bushel, closing below its 50-day moving average.
Chicago closing comments
Corn closed around 6-7c lower, although it was down considerably more at one stage. An improved weather outlook for the week ahead means that US farmers will be able to crack on a pace with plantings.
One analyst said that given completed plantings rose last week from 27% to 51% by Sunday, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, drier weather would allow growers to make more significant headway.
"If they did 24% more last week, they'll do 30% this week," he said. "They're going to catch up."
Soggy weather has been a bullish influence on corn for weeks, analysts said. Traders and analysts said that after trading mostly higher on weather for weeks, the market was in a wait-and-see mode, and some traders holding long positions were getting anxious.
By contrast beans closed around 35-40c up supported by the same old news. Argentina & crude oil. Crude hit record highs late & beans went with it for the ride. The improved weather outlook this week for the midwest is also seen as a little bearish for beans.
The trade has conveniently forgotton the massive switch back into beans this year and the fact that at some stage the Argy dispute will get resolved. Export prospects for the US won't look quite so rosy then, but hey, we can always invent a weather market!
Wheat was down around 8-9c in tandem with corn continuing its downwards slide as the northern hemisphere harvest approaches with few signs of any significant problems.
"There's very little new news for the wheat traders to look at," said Brian Hoops, president of Midwest Market Solutions. "They see corn falling, and they sell wheat along with it."
Tonights Chicago close
Septic Peg my mystic guide tells me that tonights CBOT close will see beans 10-15c down, corn 2-4c up and wheat 10c lower.
After correctly naming the 33/1 winner of yesterday's Chester Cup who could doubt her?
Chicago closing comments
Guess what? Nothing really very new. The Chicago market briefly touched limit down (-70c) on soybeans, before rebounding a bit to close down 43c nearby, with wheat down 10-18c and corn up around 5-6c.
Despite a volatile session there wasn't an awful lot of fresh news in the market.
Crude oil was lower, dragging soy down with it. Wet weather & planting concerns added to soybeans woes & ultimately supported corn. Wheat was in no mans land but the prospect of much larger crops on the horizon in the northern hemisphere was again enough to send futures lower.
None of that is particularly fresh yet it was still sufficient to cause some pretty major moves. I wonder what will happen when we do get some fresh market news!
Chicago late call
Corn Dn 6-8c, Soy Dn 15-20c, Wheat Dn 8-12c.
The U.S. corn belt didn't receive the excessive rainfall expected over the weekend, and with warmer temperatures for the region forecast for the next week, farmers are expected to increase planting progress, grain analysts said.
In the big picture, planting concerns remain supportive, but in the short term, opportunistic planting outlooks for the next week or two and the absence of fresh fundamental news to feed market bulls should shake a few longs out of the market, a CBOT floor analyst said.
Speculators continue to hold large net long positions in the market, but without fresh supportive fundamental influences, traders are trimming some length amid the uncertainties of acreage and weather, analysts added.
The inability of futures breach overhead resistance in recent sessions is attracting light selling pressure as well, but the daily dose of bullish outside market influences continues to provide underlying strength, traders added.
Chicago closing comments - "analysts" or "anal-ists"?
There was absolutely nothing new or fresh to get inspired about tonight.
Beans: sharply lower just because they were.
Wheat: higher, because beans were lower, it was wheat's turn.
Corn: mixed, one was higher, one was lower, so one had to be mixed, right?
These markets are really getting terribly uninspiring. As I've been doing this Blog over the last few months, and reading every story that's going, it has become increasingly apparent that many of our "market analysts" are in fact "market anal-ists", they trot out the same market rhetoric with boring frequency. Indeed, many articles are so transparently dumb & repeat some crap that's been in the market for days I'm surprised some of that these boys (& girls) make a living.
Come on read this from a very popular wheat newswire (you know who you are):
Wheat rose in a correction from recent weakness amid setbacks in the neighboring (they can't even spell it right!) CBOT corn and soybean markets, a CBOT floor analyst said. Gains accelerated heading into the close of trading. Traders this week have been buying corn and soybeans and using wheat as a hedge against them, an analyst said. Corn and soybeans were lower, so it was not a surprise for wheat to find some strength, he said. Despite the day's gains, wheat is vulnerable for more losses as the new-crop winter wheat harvest approaches, said Larry Glenn, owner of Glenn Commodities. The condition of hard red winter wheat in the U.S. Plains is expected to improve thanks to precipitation, he said.
And wheat was what 28-40c up on the back of such inspiring news as that!
The thing that everyone seems to be forgetting here are the fundamentals. The futures markets are getting so devoid from the reality of the fundamentals that they are getting almost impossible to predict.
Sod the futures, lets look at the fundamentals, that's what I say. Wheat can be limit up for the next forty sessions in Chicago for all I care. Will that make one iota of difference to feed demand in the UK?
NO. Someone here may buy wheat or a wheat related product because they perceive that the price will increase because CBOT wheat has moved up, but I doubt that actual demand will increase one percent because of it.
We're in for a "summer of discontent", you mark my words.
Second call on Chicago
Second Chicago futures calls are May corn steady up 5 to 7 cents, May soybeans up 25 to 35 cents, and May CBOT May wheat up 12 to 18 cents.
Chicago closing comments
SOYBEANS
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures finished a choppy, two-sided session lower Tuesday, as the market continued to consolidate ahead of Wednesday's supply and demand reports.
May soybeans settled 3 1/2 cents lower at $12.51 1/2; July soybeans finished 3 3/4 cents lower at $12.68 3/4; and November soybeans ended 9 1/2 cents lower at $12.05 1/2. May soymeal settled $0.20 lower at $329.80 per short ton. May soyoil finished 13 points lower at 55.84 cents per pound.
The market experienced choppy trade, unable to sustain lasting direction, as traders were reluctant to take on added risk amid the uncertainties surrounding potential revisions to the soybean balance sheet following last week's quarterly stocks report, analysts said.
For the record Septic Peg, my mystic guide, called soybean futures pretty much spot on at 7-10c lower.
CORN
U.S. corn futures were steady to firmer Tuesday, supported by traders positioning ahead of the U.S. Agriculture Department's April supply/demand report and as prices consolidated after recent declines, analysts said.
Nearby May corn on the Chicago Board of Trade gained 1 1/4 cents to settle at$5.91 1/4, and new-crop December was unchanged at $6.03 1/2 a bushel.
"We had kind of a consolidation day and a little bit of a 'turnaround Tuesday' type of atmosphere after the breakdown yesterday," said Jack Scoville, analyst and vice president at Price Futures Group in Chicago, referring to the markets' tendency to reverse direction from Monday.
Traders are also preparing for the supply/demand report, which is expected to confirm ideas of strong demand and shrinking supplies.
Septic Peg was not so accurate with her forecast on corn citing the market to end on a slightly weaker note.
WHEAT
U.S. wheat futures closed mostly higher Tuesday in a rebound from a sharp sell-off and with traders looking ahead to a U.S. Department of Agriculture crop report, analysts said.
Chicago Board of Trade May wheat closed up 12 3/4 cents at $9.34 per bushel. Kansas City Board of Trade May wheat jumped 7 3/4 cents to $9.87, and Minneapolis Grain Exchange May wheat sank 35 cents to $13.15.
CBOT wheat bounced in a "Turnaround Tuesday" scenario after falling hard Monday, a trader said. There was sentiment that Monday's losses were overdone, he said.
There also was positioning ahead of the USDA's April supply-and-demand report, due at 8:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday, said Alan Brugler, president of Brugler Marketing & Management.
Septic Peg's call on this one was well below par (5c easier) and I will be having a stern word with her as Pocahontas & Gernonimo reckon they can fill the post better should the Septic one fail to cut the mustard.
Tonight's Chicago close will be...
Forget the early call.
I've been playing with the ouija board and have made contact with a spirit guide who reckon's that she is able to tell me in advance what the close of Chicago is going to be. So over to you Septic Peg...
Tonight Nogger I see corn being the strongest leg of the complex, the voices tell me that decent export sales & concern over persistent cool & wet weather to continue for the next fortnight will see corn close around 10c higher....
...Beans & wheat however will not fare so well, despite a firmer opening beans will drift lower on ideas that the cold, wet weather may indeed lead to the USDA's acreage predictions being closer to the truth than many currently believe. Bean sales were also a little poor. Combined with rains in northern China relieving drought there I see beans closing 10-12c lower.
And for wheat, Peg? Well Nogger, like beans wheat's highest levels will be set early in the session but soybean weakness will also drag beans lower to close around 3c down.
Thanks Peg, any tips for the National? Ooooooooh, the voices are fading....
Limit down, limit up
It's getting a bit bizarre that unless Chicago finishes anything other than limit these days it's a bit of a let-down.
Thursday ended limit down for beans & oil, at or near limit down corn and 86 1/2c down on nearby wheat. only meal bucked the trend closing just 40c down on nearby May, although Dec 08 finished with losses of $14.
It's not a holiday in the US Monday where the market has turned around and closed at or near limit up on everything. That keeps things nice & simple for us on Tuesday morning because effectively most things are unchanged!
