USDA Crop Progress
Corn
The USDA last night reported that the corn harvest is 6% complete as of Sunday, compared to the five year average of 18% done. The lateness of this season's crop is highlighted in Illinois which is just 2% complete, compared to 28% normally. Maturity continues to run well behind schedule, with just 34% of the crop mature compared to 72% normally. That still appears to leave room for the weather to cause some damage yet, should a killing frost emerge. The percentage of the crop rated good/excellent was unchanged at 68%.
Soybeans
The soybean harvest is even further behind than corn, at 5% complete compared to 18% normally. In Illinois it's 1% done as opposed to 21% normally. Nationally 63% of the crop is dropping leaves compared to 77% normally.
Wheat
Winter wheat planting is 36% complete, only slightly behind normal, with top-producing state of Kansas 23% done as opposed to 33% normally. Second top producer Oklahoma is 33% planted, nine points behind normal. The spring wheat harvest is 94% complete compared to 98% normally.
USDA Crop Condition Report
After the close the USDA reported on the latest crop conditions for beans corn & wheat, here's what they had to say:
Corn
Condition ratings this afternoon, show 89% of the corn crop in the silking stage, improving over last week’s 76% with good growing weather. Corn in the dough stage is at 24% compared to 14% last week and 46% for the five year average. Corn is 5% dented compared to 6% last year and 14% for the five year average. Condition ratings were 10 poor/very poor and 68% good/excellent, unchanged from a week ago.
Beans
The weekly crop report showed good progress in crop maturity listing 86% of the soybeans blooming compared to 76% last week and 55% of the crop setting pods compared to 36% last week. Condition ratings are at 9% poor/very poor and 66% good/excellent; one point deterioration from the previous week in those categories.
Wheat
Crop condition ratings showed MGEX wheat (HRS) 8% harvested compared to 15% last year and 31% for the five year average. Condition ratings for HRS improved and declined one point. Poor/very poor is at 7% compared to 6% last week and good/excellent is 72% compared to 71% last week. Winter wheat is 91% harvested; the same as last year at this time and compared to 94% for the five year average.
USDA Crop Progress Report
Corn
The USDA pegged the crop at 8% poor to very poor, 1% worse than last week and 71% good to excellent, also 1% lower than last week. That's a bit of a surprise although 71% G/E is better than the 65% we would normally have at this time of year. The later than usual crop is only 8% silking compared to the five year average of 16%.
Soybeans
Soybeans also posted a surprising decline in condition, also only 14% of the crop was blooming compared to the five year average of 24%, highlighting the lateness of this year's crop. Soybean conditions deteriorated from last week by 2% in the poor to very poor category and also dropped 2% from last weeks good to excellent rating.
Winter Wheat
Winter wheat is 90% harvested in Texas, 83% harvested in Kansas and 98% harvested in Oklahoma. The national total is at 56% harvested compared to 59% on the five year average.
Spring Wheat
The spring wheat crop condition deteriorated by 4% in the good to excellent category to 72% from 76% last week. And the poor to very poor increased to 8% from 6% last week. That's a pretty big deterioration in crop conditions in what the market thought was a pretty good week.
There's something bullish for corn, beans and wheat in tonight's report which may add a bit of support in the overnight session after some pretty steep losses today.
USDA Crop Condition Report
Corn
The crop progress report was out this afternoon. 7% of the corn crop is rated poor to very poor and 72% good to excellent, a 2% improvement in the good to excellent category from last week. The trade was looking for a 2% decline in the good to excellent category.
Soybeans
Soybeans are 96% planted compared to the five year average of 98%. The soybean’s condition rating was 6% poor to very poor and 68% good to excellent, a 1% improvement in the good to excellent rating. USDA shows 91% of the soybeans emerged, close to the 5 year average of 95%.
Wheat
The report has the wheat harvest at 40% compared to 46% on the five year average. Texas is 70% harvested, Oklahoma 89% harvested, Kansas 47% and Missouri 58% harvested. The winter wheat crop is rated 28% poor to very poor and 45% good to excellent, unchanged in the categories but a 1% shift from good to excellent compared to last week. Spring wheat is rated 6% poor to very poor and 76% good to excellent, an increase of 1% in the P/VP and a 1% decrease in the G/EX.
USDA Crop Progress/Condition Summary
The USDA reported on US crop planting progress and conditions after the close tonight, here's what they had to say:
WINTER WHEAT
20% harvested, against 9% last week and 31% on the five year average.
SPRING WHEAT
4% poor/very poor, against 3% last week. 77% good/excellent against 76% last week.
CORN
7% poor/very poor, against 5% a week ago. 70% good/excellent, unchanged from last week.
SOYBEANS
91% planted, against 87% last week and 95% on the five year average. Conditions are 6% poor/very poor, the same as a week ago, good/excellent is up one point to 67%.
USDA Crop Progress/Condition Report Summary
Monday night's eagerly-awaited crop progress and crop condition report from the USDA is summarised below:
CORN
Corn was seen 97% planted as of Sunday night, compared to 99% normally, but ahead of year-ago levels of 93% when seedings were even more acutely affected by excess rainfall. Illinois has caught up well at 93% done versus 99% normally, whilst Indiana still lags at 90% complete against 98% normally. That still amounts to 1.4 million acres in those two states alone, and the deadline for fully claiming the crop insurance has now passed. Nationally, 87% of the crop is emerged, compared to 94% normally, whilst the percentage of the crop rated good/excellent is down one point on last week to 69%.
SOYBEANS
Beans are seen 78% planted, compared to 87% normally and 76% a year ago. Illinois is still well behind at 59% done as opposed to 88% normally. The crop is 55% emerged, up from 36% a week ago, and actually ahead of the "normal" pace of 51%.
WINTER WHEAT
Winter wheat is showing at 5% harvested, compared to 10% normally at this time of year. The USDA say that nationally 44% of the crop is rated good/excellent, down one point from a week ago.
SPRING WHEAT
The spring wheat crop is 96% planted, compared with 100% normally at this time of year, up from 89% a week ago, but also behind last year's pace of 100%. In the top-producing state of North Dakota 94% of the crop is now in the ground, compared to 99% normally and 100% a year ago. We are now well past the cut-off point for farmers fully claiming on their crop insurance for spring wheat, and it must be highly questionable how much of the remainder will actually now go into wheat. Spring wheat crop conditions are running at 72% good/excellent, down one point on a week ago.
USDA - The Actual Numbers
USDA U.S. Grains Carryout (Billion Bu)
Wednesday 2008-09 February
2008-09 Analyst 2008-09
estimate estimate USDA
Soybeans 0.185 0.200 0.210
Corn 1.740 1.811 1.790
Wheat 0.712 0.659 0.655
USDA World Carryover (MMT)
Wednesday February
2008-09 2008-09
estimate estimate
Wheat 155.85 149.96
Corn 144.6 136.7
Soybeans 49.95 49.87
USDA World Grain Production (MMT)
Wednesday February
2008-09 2008-09
estimate estimate
China corn 165.5 165.5
South Africa corn 12.0 10.5
Argentina corn 13.5 13.5
Australia wheat 21.5 20.15
Argentina wheat 8.4 8.4
EU 27 wheat 150.26 150.27
Canada wheat 28.61 28.61
China wheat 113.0 113.0
Russia wheat 63.7 63.7
Ukraine wheat 25.9 25.9
Brazil soybeans 57.0 57.0
Argentina soybeans 43.0 43.8
China soybeans 16.8 16.8
USDA crop condition summary
It all looks pretty good really.
Spring wheat good/excellent is up 2 points to 75%.
Corn good/excellent is 61%, also up 2 points from last week.
Beans are up one point to 58% good/excellent.
