The USDA Numbers
Here they are hot off the press. The Sept 1st stocks report showed soybean reserves of 138 million bushels, still tight but considerably higher than the average trade estimate of 111 million. Corn stocks were lower than expected at 1.674 billion bushels, against an average trade estimate of 1.719 billion. Wheat stocks were a little higher than anticipated at 2.215 billion bushels, versus the average estimate of 2.131 billion.
All wheat production came in pretty much in line with trade ideas of 2.196 billion at 2.220 billion bushels. All winter wheat was 1.523 billion versus pre-report expectations of 1.542 billion. Spring wheat output rose by more than expected from 548 million bushels to 587 million.
There you go, it's tomorrows cyber chip wrappings already.
The number look a tad friendly for corn and a little bearish for beans and wheat.
USDA Stocks Report Estimates
The USDA are out at 13.30 BST today with their quarterly stocks report based on Sept 1st levels. With Sept 1st being the start of the marketing year for corn & soybeans, these numbers will also be the MY 2008/09 ending stocks.
Strong demand from China and a sharply reduced Argentine crop mean that US soybean ending stocks are expected to be around 110-112 million bushels, which would be the tightest year-end supply in 32 years.
For corn ending stocks are expected around 1.719 billion bushels.
For wheat the 2009/10 marketing year has already begun, Sept 1st stocks are seen at around 2.13 billion bushels.
With the spring wheat harvest almost over, the USDA will also report on this season's wheat production. Trade guesses for all wheat range from 2.154-2.244 billion bushels, with an average around 2.19 billion, up from August's estimate of 2.18 billion. All winter wheat is expected to comprise 1.542 billion of that, with spring wheat averaging 552 million bushels and durum 98 million.
USDA Crop Production/Stocks Numbers
Here's a quick summary of today's magic numbers from the USDA:
Aug 12 Avg Guess Range Last USDA
US corn
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Production 12.761 12.472 11.792-12.814 12.290
08/09 Stks 1.720 1.746 1.600-1.820 1.770
09/10 Stks 1.621 1.701 1.517-1.892 1.550
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US beans
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Production 3.199 3.213 3.000-3.275 3.260
08/09 Stks 0.110 0.106 0.090-0.115 0.110
09/10 Stks 0.210 0.221 0.145-0.305 0.250
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All wheat
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Production 2.184 2.150 2.086-2.238 2.112
09/10 Stks 0.743 0.737 0.638-0.812 0.706
USDA Stocks Report
The USDA quarterly stocks report:
June USDA Avg Trade Range March 2008
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Corn 4.266 4.190 4.064-4.321 6.958 4.028
Soybeans 0.597 0.586 0.559-0.620 1.302 0.676
Wheat 0.667 0.670 0.640-0.687 1.037 0.306
USDA Quarterly Stocks Report Highlights
USDA's Quarterly Grain Stocks report indicated corn stocks as of September 1 were 1.624 billion bushels, about 83 million bushels more than the average pre-report estimate of 1.541 bb and 320 mb more than the 1.304 bb for the same period a year ago.
Soybean stocks September 1 were 205m bu, compared to an average of 145m bu for pre-report estimates and 574m bu a year ago. For soybeans, June-August indicated disappearance was 471 million bushels, down 9 percent from the same period a year earlier.
Wheat stocks September 1 were 1.857 bb, compared to an average of 1.909 bb for pre-report estimates and 1.717 bb a year ago.
USDA Quarterly Stocks Report Summary
Today's eagerly awaited June 1st quarterly stocks report from the USDA pegged corn stocks at 4.028 billion bushels, slightly above the average trade estimate of 3.925 billion.
Soybean stocks are seen at 0.676 billion bushels, again slightly higher that the average trade estimate of 0.669 billion.
Wheat stocks are pegged at 0.306 billion bushels, also slightly above the average trade estimate of 0.278 billion.
USDA S&D Highlights
Corn end stocks 08-09 0.763 billion bushels , 07-08 1.383 billion bushels.
Wheat end stocks 08-09 0.483 billion bushels, 07-08 0.239 billion bushels.
Soybeans end stocks 08-09 0.185 billion bushels, 07-08 0.145 billion bushels.
US wheat production:
All wheat 2.392b
Winter wheat 1.777b
HRW 1.011b
SRW 0.550b
White wheat 0.215b
USDA world carryover stocks
Here's a snapshot of world carryover figures from this afternoon's Supply/Demand report:
Corn 102.97mmt (vs March's estimate of 104.03mmt)
Soybeans 49.31mmt (47.44mmt)
Wheat 112.48mmt (110.40mmt)
USDA US ending stocks
The following is a snapshot of U.S. carryover figures from this afternoon's Supply/Demand report:
Corn 1.238 billion bushels (vs avg trade estimate of 1.303 billion)
Soybeans 0.160 billion (0.157 billion)
Wheat 0.242 billion (0.261 billion)
More to follow.
