Rapeseed Harvesting
19/07/11 -- There are some widely mixed reports coming in from across Europe with regards to the rapeseed harvest. Better than expected yields are being reported in France, which may see them harvest a crop of around 4.6 MMT this year, a drop of around 4% on last season but still a considerable improvement on what many were forecasting a couple of months ago.
The Germans haven't been quite so fortunate, output here is expected to be in the region of 4.3-4.5 MMT, some 20-25% lower than last year as spring rains arrived a little too late to help much of the crop.
In Romania overall production is also expected to be down on last year. My Romanian correspondent reported last week: "A hot spell of weather the last few days with high temps mixed with some thunderstorms meant we finally started rape on Monday. Yields are an encouraging for us 3.1 tonne/ha which is 0.6 tonne up on budget. We are in not our best rape but we also have some lower yielding stuff to do. Progress is slow but steady and we have completed almost 100ha of 320ha we have ready. Only problem appears to be an excess of late growing cleavers which is keeping the riddles and cleaner very busy. The rest is still a few days off yet. Reports from the south of Romania talk about rape at 1.7 tonnes per ha. We are 2-3 weeks off wheat but they are running on this in the west."
Overall EU-27 production is seen falling around 2 MMT on last season, which means t hat we will have to rely on imports again for 2011/12. Unfortunately output from our cheap and cheerful neighbour Ukraine is also seen falling this year as heavy June rains were thought to have caused significant crop losses.
Europe's 2 MMT shortfall is however expected to largely be made up for on a global scale by sharp increases in output from Canada and Australia. Canadian production is expected to rise to anywhere between 12.6 MMT and 13.4 MMT in 2011, depending on who's estimate you fancy.
Australia is now expecting a record crop of just under 2.6 MMT in 2011, much of which will be exported to Europe, according to yesterday's estimate from the Australian Oilseeds Federation.
Here's a summary of what is expected from where on the rapeseed front in 2011/12:
| EU-27 | 2010/11 | 2011/12 |
| France | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| Germany | 5.70 | 4.40 |
| UK | 2.20 | 2.30 |
| Czech Rep | 1.05 | 1.07 |
| Poland | 2.10 | 1.80 |
| Romania | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Others | 3.60 | 3.43 |
| Total EU-27 | 20.45 | 18.40 |
| Rest of the World | ||
| Canada | 11.80 | 13.00 |
| China | 13.00 | 12.80 |
| India | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| Australia | 2.15 | 2.59 |
| Ukraine | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| Others | 3.05 | 3.25 |
| Total Rest of the World | 38.50 | 40.04 |
| Total World | 58.95 | 58.44 |
Oil World Ups Rapeseed Production Estimates
Oil World has revised its global rapeseed production forecast for 2009/10 to 56.5 MMT. That's over 2 MMT up on it's previous forecast of 54.3 MMT, although still a little behind 2008's 57.8 MMT.
Output in the EU-27 is now seen at 20.3 MMT, they say, up sharply from 18.4 MMT a month ago and 18.9 MMT last year.
China's production is raised to 12.8 MMT (previously 12.4 MMT; 2008/09 11.5 MMT).
Elsewhere Canadian output is now pegged at 9.9 MMT (10.2; 12.6), Ukraine 1.7 MMT (1.5; 2.9) and in Australia 1.7 MMT (1.8; 1.9).
Global use should reach 57.7 MMT (56.6; 55.5) and ending stocks 5.7 MMT (5.0; 7.0) they say.
Oil World Drops Rapeseed Production Estimate
Oil World has revised lower it's forecast for worldwide rapeseed production in 2009/10 to 54.4 MMT, 0.8 MMT below last month’s forecast of 55.2 MMT, and 6.2% or 3.6 MMT down on the 58.0 MMT produced last year.
The reduction comes on the back of lower Canadian output due to drought. Production in Canada is now seen at 10.2 MMT, from 11 MMT last month and 12.6 MMT a year ago.
Production in the EU-27 is expected at 18.5 MMT from 18.9 MMT last year, they say.
World Rapeseed Production Lower In 2009/10
Oil World say that global rapeseed production for 2009/10 will fall to 55.0 MMT, from 58.3 MMT in 2008/09.
The fall comes mainly on the back of lower output from Canada at 11 MMT from 12.5 MMT and Ukraine at 1.5 MMT from 2.9 MMT.
EU-27 production is also seen down 0.5 MMT to 18.4 MMT.
World crush is projected sharply higher at 54.6 MMT, up from 51.8 MMT, resulting in lower ending stocks of 5.0 MMT from 7.7 MMT.
World Rapeseed Supply/Demand 2008/09
Oil World is currently forecasting world rapeseed production in 2008/09 at 56.5 mln t, up from 49.0 mln t in the previous year.
Main producers will be the EU with 18.8 (18.4) mln t, China with 11.7 (10.4) mln t, Canada with 11.7 (9.6) mln t, Ukraine with 2.9 (1.1) mln t and Australia with 1.4 (1.1) mln t.
Total exports are seen at 9.7 (8.5) mln t, of which 5.7 (5.9) mln t will come from Canada, 2.5 (0.9) mln t from Ukraine and 0.7 (0.5) mln t from Australia, it says.
Global use is estimated at 54.0 (50.7) mln t.
This should lead to increased ending stocks of 7.2 (4.7) mln t.
World rapeseed supply and demand 2008/09
Informa this month pegged world rapeseed production at 51.5 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes on last year's 47.3 million tonnes.
Oil World expects the world to crush 49.9 million tonnes of rapeseed this year as compared to 48.3 million tonnes last year.
Significant production increases are seen coming from Australia (1.7 million tonnes compared to 1.1 million tonnes in 2007) and the Ukraine (2.5 million tonnes vs 1.1 million tonnes last year).
Informa says that the Ukraine will have up to 2 million tonnes of non-GMO rapeseed to export this year.
Statistics Canada is predicting that Canadian farmers will plant a record amount of canola this year. Informa is forecasting the Canadian canola production number will hit 10.3 million tonnes versus 8.8 million tonnes last year.
The Chinese Minstry of Agriculture and Informa are pegging this year’s Chinese winter rapeseed crop at 11.85 million tonnes this year. That is up 3.8% over last year.
EU-27 production is seen around unchanged depending on who's figures you rely on.
The USDA is forecasting an 18.9 million tonne EU-27 rapeseed crop this year. Toepfer thinks this is optimistic and thinks the number will be closer to 18.3 million tonnes, whilst Oil World sees Europe producing 18 million tonnes of rapeseed this year versus 18.2 million tonnes last year.
Oil World says there is a high probability that oilseed prices will continue to trend lower in the short term unless there is a crop production issue.
So there you have it. According to Oil World & Informa we have a world 4.2 million tonnes production increase partially offset by an extra 1.6 million tonnes of crush, leaving 2.6 million tonnes surplus to requirements.
An amount, maybe coincidentally, maybe not, almost exactly that of the entire production of the Ukraine.
Is it just me or do you feel a bit sorry for Ukraine? We told them we were desperate for wheat & rapeseed this year, they go and produce millions of tonnes more of the stuff, and now we don't want it!
I feel a bit like you do when you're in an Indian restaurant late on and there are some lads in a bit rowdy and p*ssed up. They order everything on the menu then sneak out thirty seconds before it arrives.
They won't fall for that one so easily again next year will they? Still there's always Eurovision 2009, bless.
So, the next time you hear the old "we just can't buy the seed" line, toss them this....
Oil World estimates global 2008/09 rapeseed production at 52.4MMT up 4.3MMT
Oil World -- 2008/09 world rapeseed production is estimated at 52.4 mln t, up from the 48.1 mln t produced one year earlier.
In the EU-27 18.1 (18.17) mln t are expected, in Canada 9.4 (8.8) mln t, in Ukraine 2.4 (1.1) mln t, in China 11.3 (10.4) mln t, in India 6.4 (5.4) mln t, and in Australia 1.6 (1.1) mln t.
Worldwide use is expected to increase to 52.2 (50.5) mln t including a crush of 49.4 (48.0) mln t. This should lead to slightly higher ending stocks of 4.2 (4.0) mln t and to a stocks-to-use ratio of 8.0 (7.9)%.
Global rapeseed meal output is forecast to increase to 29.2 (28.3) mln t and exports to 3.7 (3.5) mln t. Rapeseed oil production may reach 19.8 (19.1) mln t, exports 2.3 (2.1) mln t and use 19.7 (19.1) mln t so that ending stocks are estimated at 1.2 (1.2) mln t and the stocks-to-use ratio at 6.3 (6.1)%.
