US Winter Wheat At Risk Of Freeze Damage
The US winter wheat crop will be exposed to potentially damaging temperatures Monday night when temperatures fall into the low and mid 20s F, say StormX.
Injury to jointing wheat will occur when temperatures fall to the mid 20s F for at least 2 hours, long enough to kill the growing point that is located above the soil surface, they say. The stem growth will stop immediately above the growing point and yield losses will vary, depending on the extent of freeze damage in the affected stems. Mild stem injury does not appear to interfere with ability of wheat plants to take up nutrients from the soil and translocate them to developing grain, according to research conducted by Kansas agronomists.
Jointing was just beginning in Kansas on March 26th, reportedly 9% under way in the south-central district and 15% in central Kansas. Jointing was most advanced in the southwest district at 20%. Minimum temperatures tonight are expected to bottom out in the low to mid 20s F in Wichita (23), Dodge City (25), Garden City (22), Hutchinson (20), Medicine Lodge (23) and Liberal (22). These cities are all located in the southern half of the state.
Vulnerability to freeze damage is greater in Oklahoma, where crop development is more advanced. Statewide 62% of Oklahoma wheat was jointing March 26th while a few fields in the southwest part of the state had already reached the boot stage. Predicted lows for tonight are: Enid (22) Hobart (29) Lawton (26) Ponca City (24) and Stillwater (24). Temperatures will rebound into the low 40s F Tuesday night in Oklahoma and Kansas.
CBOT Closing Comments
Corn
May Corn closed at $4.05 ½, up 1 cent. Corn closed a little better on the day trading on both sides of the market throughout the day and remaining in the consolidation of the past five days. The dollar finished higher as investors search for a less risky place to park their money. Private exporters reported to the USDA, export sales of 116,000mt of corn for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total 58,000mt is for delivery during the 2008-2009 marketing year and 58,000mt is for delivery during the 2009/2010 marketing year. Changes in destination of 116,000mt of corn from unknown destinations to South Korea for delivery during the 2008/2009 marketing year were announced. Today’s exports for inspection report showed 42.29 million bushels, 11% better than last week. USDA export projections for marketing year 2008/2009 are forecasted at 1.9 billion bushel. Below freezing temperatures are forecast as far south as south central Texas, southern Louisiana, Mississippi and central Alabama.
Soybeans
May soybeans finished at $9.94, down 1 ½ cents. Soybeans met with selling as they reached the $10.00 mark on the May contract in today’s trade. New crop soybeans were much lower than the old crop on ideas there could be a shift in acres to later planting of soybeans due to the recent cold and wet weather in the wheat growing areas. Pessimism seems to have entered the stock markets in the US and abroad with the Dow nearly 100 points lower going into the end of the Monday. Today’s USDA grains inspected for exports report was 16.33 million bushels. Current market year inspections are 10% above the previous year to date numbers.
Wheat
May CBOT wheat closed at $5.57, down 6 ½ cents. Wheat futures prices closed lower on all three wheat exchanges today. Weekly wheat inspections for export are 16.45 million bushels, about 5% above the previous week. The weather market has begun for wheat with below freezing temperatures in Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and south east Texas across to Central Alabama. There are no official crop damage reports as of this writing and probably won’t have anything concrete for a couple of days. Once the weather passes and the temperatures warm up it will be easier to assess the damages. Winter wheat crop condition report out today showed 22% of the crop in poor/very poor condition.
EU Wheat Ends Higher
EU wheat futures closed higher Monday, but well off session highs with May Paris milling wheat ending up EUR0.50 at EUR137.50/tonne, and May London feed wheat closing up GBP1.10 at GBP110.50/tonne.
May London feed wheat touched GBP112/tonne and May Paris milling wheat EUR141/tonne earlier in the session, but failed to hold onto those early gains.
Trade is still stuck largely in a sideways pattern, with seemingly little hope of breaking out of this range until more is known about the likely size of northern hemisphere crops later in the year.
The threat of crop damage from a weekend freeze in the US is supportive, as is lower EU production for 2009/10.
Large old-crop supplies however continue to cap any potential rallies, at least for t he time being.
Try Telling This To The Kids Of Today
Finally getting round to binning the last of the compulsory child seats for the car over the weekend, got me thinking.
When we were kids we had no child seats. We had no fcukin seats at all in the back of my Dad's van. We used to roll around in the back every time he turned a corner.
And when my two brothers & I rode the one bike we shared, we had no helmets, we didn't even have any shoes on half the time.
Even though all the shops closed at 5.00pm and didn't open on the weekends, somehow we didn't starve to death.
We shared one bottle of pop with our mates and NO ONE actually died from this.
We could collect old drinks bottles and cash them in at the corner shop and buy chewie or sweets. We ate loads of white bread and real butter and drank soft drinks with sugar in them, but we weren't overweight because...... WE WERE ALWAYS OUTSIDE PLAYING!! We would leave home in the morning and play all day, as long as we were back when it got dark. No one was able to get hold of us all day, and we were OK.
We would spend hours building go-carts out of scraps of wood and some pram wheels we'd found, and then ride down the hill, only to find out we'd not bothered with brakes. We built tree houses, caught sticklebacks and lit fires. Loads of fires.
We did not have Playstations, Nintendo's, X-boxes, satellite TV, no videos, no DVD's, no surround sound, no mobile phones, no 99 channels of abject American shite on TV to chose from, no personal computers, no internet and no MSN.........INSTEAD WE HAD FRIENDS. We fell out of trees, got cut, broke bones and teeth and got chased by the bloke down the road for nicking his apples.
And we could only buy Easter Eggs and Hot Cross Buns at Easter time. We got pellet guns and catapults for our 10th birthdays!
We walked to and from school on our own or with our mates, we never got a lift anywhere, EVER. Sports Day was competitive. If you were no good you got beat and accepted it. Our teachers used to hit us without fear of getting sued and losing their jobs.
And our parents didn't invent stupid names for their kids like 'Kiora' or 'India'. We wrote our homework out by hand, and we didn't pass our exams by simply copying what the teacher wrote on the board. Neither did we go on exchange trips to France, squeeze in a weeks skiing with the school in Gstaad before jetting off to the Med for a fortnights recharging of batteries before another hectic high-pressure school term. If we'd have took a form home asking my Dad to set up a direct debit so we could go to Switzerland next year he'd have told us to sod off. We went to Rhyl, for the day.
Bhah.
Overnight Grains
Grains are firmer on the overnight eCBOT market on news that the forecast weekend wintry conditions in the US were more severe than originally anticipated, and sub-zero lows are forecast to last at least until the middle of the week.
Winter wheat crops emerging from dormancy are at risk from winterkill as temperatures fall as much as 24 degrees below normal, this comes after a warmer than normal March "fooled" wheat into thinking spring had arrived early.
Freezing rain and snow will also keep farmers out of their fields, delaying spring planting of corn.
Soybeans continue to benefit from last week's acreage numbers. With spring plantings forecast up only 300,000 acres from last year to 76 million acres. While this will be the most acres of soybeans ever planted in the United States, industry participants were expecting 79.25 million acres.
Meanwhile US soybean exports are projected for a record 1.225 billion bushels in 2009/10, the Agriculture Department chief economist, Joe Glauber, said last week.
Outside markets are also supportive, with Japan's Nikkei closing at a three month high Monday, crude oil almost a dollar firmer and the US dollar lower across the board.
At 9.15BST soybeans were around 10-12 cents firmer, wheat up around 5-6 cents and corn 1-2 cents higher.
EU Pig Numbers Falling
The total number of pigs slaughtered in 2009 will be about 250 million, 2% down on 2008, a European Commission report has indicated. Numbers are falling due to last year’s high feed prices and the financial crisis, the report says.
The figures have been based on numbers submitted by each individual country at the beginning of this year, although not all countries have submitted their data yet, the indications are that numbers are down, according to the report.
In Germany, the number of slaughterings is expected to decrease by 1.8% to 53.8 million, followed by Spain (-2.1% to 40.4 million), France (-2.9% to 24.9 million), Denmark (-0.6% to 20.6 million) and the Netherlands (-0.5% to 14.4 million).
Most production losses can be found in Eastern Europe. In 2009, Czech slaughterings will be only slightly over 3 million, a 19.7% decrease.
Carrs Milling Shares Drop 11 Percent
Shares in Carr's Milling Industries are more than 11% lower at 400 pence in early trade Monday after the company warned that pre-tax profit for the full year will be lower than last year as it announced half-year figures.
"For the 52 weeks to 29 August 2009, the board expects the pre-tax profit to be appreciably lower than last year's underlying figure, reflecting mainly the weakness in fertiliser but also the impact of the increased retirement benefit charge," said the group.
Anyone who knows anything about agriculture will know that matching 2008's performance is going to be highly unlikely in 2009 for any agri-business.
Breaking News: Severe Weekend Freeze Hits US
Exactly two years ago, a record-breaking freeze hit the southern Plains and Deep South, setting the wheat market into a frenzy and marking the beginning of a bull run lasting more than a year. Wheat doubled in price from the time of the April 2007 freeze until the top of the market, a year later. Is history getting ready to repeat itself, asks Allen Motew of QT Weather?
It is certainly beginning to look that way. The Southern Plains saw a hard freeze Sunday morning. Lows in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas will be even colder on Monday. Monday morning will be even colder than Sunday with teens in Kansas and low twenties in Oklahoma and N Texas…enough to cause widespread damage to the HRW crop, he says.
After that a third day of severe cold will hit the Southern Plains Tuesday, reaching the Lower Mississippi Valley and SRW crop too, adds Allen. Southern states will see readings far below freezing Wednesday morning hurting numerous perishable crops as well as hardy varieties too, very similar to the April 4-9, 2007 freeze, warns Allen.
The 2007 freeze was so destructive because it followed two to three weeks of well above normal temperatures (highs mainly in the 70s and 80s/lows mainly in the 50s and 60s). This kicked off the growing season a little early, with vegetation stressed when temperatures plummeted. The pattern this year seems strikingly similar with growing degree days well above average so far in 2009. Most states from the southern Plains to the Corn Belt and across the South saw a much
warmer than normal March setting the stage for history to repeat itself, he warns.
The Soft Red Wheat crop across Arkansas and the Mid-Mississippi Valley will see record low temperatures Tuesday morning. The all-time lowest April temperature in Little Rock is 28 degrees F. Tomorrow QT Weather say that a low of 24 degrees will hit Little Rock, with potentially devastating results. In 2007, before the freeze hit, 6% of the crop was rated poor/very poor, post-freeze this number had shot to 64%. In Tennessee it went from 3% to 84%.
Tuesday's forecast lows:
