Ukraine Crop Conditions
As of February 25 the Ukraine Ag Ministry report winter grains were rated 90% in good or satisfactory condition (unchanged from the previous week), with 10.0% (also unchanged) in poor condition.
Ice cover remains over 7.2% of planted area, up from 6.7% a week ago, they said.
The winter grains area was 8.6 million hectares confirmed the Ministry, up 3.7% from the previous year. The area given over to winter wheat is 6.7 million ha, up 2.6%, with barley sowings at 1.6 million ha (up 25.4%) and rapeseed planted on 1.4 million ha, down 1.4%.
CBOT Closing Comments
Soybeans
March soybean futures closed at USD9.52 ½, up 1 ½ cents, March soymeal futures finished at USD271.00, down USD2.20/tonne, and March soy oil futures at 39.50, down 21 points. Weekly export inspections were higher than anticipated at 40.126 million bushels. Harvesting delays in Brazil, coupled with logistical difficulties in getting their record crop to the ports may be providing some unexpected front-end support.
Corn
March corn futures closed at USD3.70 ¾, down 7 ¼ cents, and May corn futures also down 7 ¼ cents at USD3.81 ¾. Anticipated first of month fund buying for corn failed to materialise, which pressured prices later in the session. Crude oil also turned weaker, which along with a firm dollar also weighed on values. Corn inspections for export were down from last week but up from year ago levels.
Wheat
March CBOT wheat futures closed at USD4.92 ¾, down 13 ¾ cents, March KCBT wheat futures at USD4.99 ½, down 11 ½ cents, and March MGEX wheat futures at USD5.05 ¼, down 11 ½ cents. Wheat inspections for export were down from last week but ahead of last year. Iraq snubbed US wheat in favour of Russian, Canadian and Australian grain over the weekend. A resurgent dollar will do little to help US wheat make inroads into the Middle East.
EU Wheat Closing Comments
EU wheat futures closed mixed with March London feed wheat ending GBP1.85 higher at GBP96.85/tonne, and Paris March milling wheat finishing EUR0.75 lower at EUR121.50/tonne.
London wheat was firmer after the pound crashed to fresh 2010 lows against the euro and its lowest since early May 2009 against the dollar.
Speculation that the UK might be in for a hung parliament at the next election sparked a run on sterling.
Who knows what inept squabbling that would cause, it would certainly be highly unlikely to be conducive to any attempt at sorting out the spiraling budget deficit.
In the UK the HGCA say that "crops have survived the unusually cold winter conditions well, and although growth has slowed, there are more crops at the expected crop development stage than last year, when crops were planted late and into poor conditions."
Iraq bought 380,000 MT of Russian, Canadian and Australian wheat over the weekend, with both EU and US wheat failing to get a look in.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight session closed mixed, with beans 5-6 cents lower, wheat down 2-3 cents and corn a cent or so higher.
Crude oil is a little higher at USD80.26/barrel and the dollar is also firmer.
Iraq bought 380,000 MT of mostly Russian wheat over the weekend, with the remainder being of Australian/Canadian origin.
Cold and wet conditions are already seen potentially delaying spring corn planting. Midwest precipitation has averaged 11.2 inches October through February. This was the highest accumulated precipitation in 60 years, and 3.75 inches above normal, says Gail Martell of Martell Crop Projections.
Hard red winter wheat is coming out of dormancy in the Southern Great Plains. Nights will remain below freezing in Oklahoma and Texas this week but daytime highs are climbing into the 50s F, adds Gail. Topsoil moisture is favourable for growth after a stormy and wet winter. The Pacific Northwest is the area to watch. Sub-par precipitation this winter with El Nino has reduced field moisture for spring growth in the white wheat growing area that comprises 17-18% of US winter wheat, she warns.
Abiove say that Brazilian soybean production will total 65.5 MMT and say that harvesting is 20-22 percent complete.
The size of speculative and fund shorts on CBOT wheat leaves the market vulnerable to a sudden wave of buying for seemingly little fundamental reason.
China's Ministry of Commerce say that the country will import 3.32 MMT of soybeans in both February and March, that's down from imports of over 4 MMT per month recently.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called mixed; soybeans called 4-6cents lower; wheat called 2-4 cents lower.
Quote Of The Day
"Campaigners think cows should be like in the Anchor butter advert, with 50 to 100 cows dancing in a field," from the man behind a planned 8,100 head dairy farm in Lincolnshire (see: here). I'd have loved it even more if he's have given his cows names like AAA and Duracell.
EU Soymeal Prices
Basis CIF Rotterdam/Amsterdam in USD/tonne unless stated:
Brazil pellets 48%
Spot Fob 390.00
Afloat 382.00
March 363.00
Apr 334.00
May/Sep 319.00
Oct/Dec 322.00
Argentine pellets 44/45%
May/Sep 315.00
Dutch Hipro 49% profat FOB
March
Apr 387.00
May 362.00
Jun/Jul 339.00
Aug/Oct 342.00
Nov/Jan 342.00
Argentine Hipro 49% profat
Afloat 397.00-390.00
Feb 385.00
March 362.00
Apr 342.00
May/Sep 323.00
Oct/Dec 327.00
EU Rapemeal Prices
Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/tonne:
Mch 172,00
Apr 154,00
May 136,00
May/1st h Jly 129,00
Aug/Oct 10 115,00
Nov/Jan 11 127,00
Nov/Apr 11 128,00
Pound Dives On Hung Parliament Fears
Just got back from a nice long weekend away with no TV to find the pound on the receiving end of another thrashing this morning.
What the hell went on over the weekend to sink the pound below 1.50 against the dollar then, I wonder? We haven't been that low since last May, and we are now also down to our lowest levels of 2010 against the euro.
It seems that a Sunday Times poll pegging the Tories lead over Labour at just two points is to blame, increasing the likelihood of a hung parliament at the next election.
Concerns that forex traders are switching from the euro to sterling as the new whipping boy in their search for a fast buck appear to be coming to fruition.
The Wall Street Journal says that a French and German-backed deal to bailout Greece with EUR30 billion is close to being agreed.
That leaves the pound languishing at around 1.10 against the euro, despite all the pressure that the single currency has been under since the turn of the year, and around 1.4890 against the dollar.
At least that's revived the fortunes of London wheat, with March currently up GBP2.75 at GBP97.75/tonne.
