UK Exports
17/04/12 -- The latest export data from HM Customs & Excise reveals that the UK exported 212,700 MT of wheat in February, bringing the 2011/12 marketing year to date total to 1.98 MMT, almost 12% down on the same time a year ago.
Barley exports in the month were 60,500 MT, making the cumulative total 648,700 MT, an increase of 7% on last year. OSR exports in February were 155,100 MT, meaning that at 634,500 MT this season's exports are more than double last year's levels eight months into the campaign.
EU Rapemeal Prices
17/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are unchanged to slightly easier today weighed down by last night's losses in Chicago soymeal.
Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session:
| Apr12 | 243.00 | -2.00 |
| May/Jul12 | 240.00 | -2.00 |
| Aug/Oct12 | 207.00 | unch |
| Nov12/Jan13 | 208.00 | -1.00 |
| Feb/Apr13 | 210.00 | -1.00 |
| May/Jul13 | 204.00 | unch |
| Aug/Oct13 | 175.00 | unch |
| Nov13/Jan14 | 184.00 | -1.00 |
The Morning Vibe
17/04/12 -- The overnight grains are a bit firmer in a modest "Turnaround Tuesday" style with beans up 6-8 cents, corn flat to 1 1/2 cents higher and wheat up 2-3 cents. Crude is around half a dollar firmer.
May 12 old crop London wheat closed last night at a EUR4.30/tonne premium to May 12 Paris milling wheat. Nov 12 London wheat is the equivalent of around a EUR14.30/tonne discount. Something is clearly amiss.
Friday will be the anniversary of last year's top of the market for London wheat when May 11 traded as high as GBP222.00/tonne and closed at the highest level in history of GBP217.50/tonne. New crop Nov 11 was GBP178.25/tonne that day.
As it turned out both levels proved to be exceptionally inflated. By the end of June old crop Jul 11 was trading at less money than new crop had been back in April and Nov 11 had fallen by more than thirty quid.
Now I'm not saying that there's GBP30.00/tonne downside to Nov 12 London wheat, but there is some potential for wheat prices to work lower from where they currently reside. Especially should the 2012 crop turn out to be somewhat better than current pessimism suggests, much as it did in 2011.
Meanwhile old crop seems to be in the hands of Beelzebub, with the cash market showing around a GBP30.00/tonne premium to new crop let him keep it.
Chicago Eases On Expectations For Rapid Planting Progress
16/04/12 -- Soybeans: May 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.20, down 16 3/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.50, down 11 3/4 cents; May 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD391.40, down USD4.40; May 12 Soybean Oil closed at 55.66, down 86 points. Funds sold an estimated 6,000 soybean contracts on the day, but still remain heavily long. The March NOPA crush figure of 140.5 million bushels was up on last month but -23 million below expectations. The usual Monday night crop progress report is delayed until tomorrow, with soybean plantings expected to be around 5% complete. Celeres estimate the Brazilian soybean harvest at 88% done, three points ahead of normal for this time of year. Farmers there like these prices and are already 72% sold they say, well ahead of 60% normally.
Corn: May 12 Corn closed at USD6.23 1/4, down 6 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.26 1/4, down 10 3/4 cents. Funds dumped an estimated 9,000 contracts on the day ahead of what will now be tomorrow's crop progress report. That us expected to show corn plantings in the region of 20% done, which would be a record early pace. Weekend rains and more in the forecast w=for the week ahead are seen getting this crop off to the best possible start. You will recall of course that the USDA estimate the largest corn acreage since 1937 this year, potentially giving us a bin buster if US farmers get anything close to trendline yields. old crop remains tight though, and today's export inspections of 42.875 million bushels was well ahead of trade expectations.
Wheat: May 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.16 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents; May 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.30 1/2, down 12 1/2 cents; May 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.15 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents. Funds were said to have increased their CBOT wheat short by around 3,000 contracts on the day. The rescheduled crop progress report is expected to show spring wheat plantings jumping from 21% done last week to as high as 50% completed now. As with corn weather conditions are seen as favourable for the newly planted crop. The USDA Export Inspections Report was delayed, but did manage to get released, at 25.75 million bushels it leaves wheat exports well off of last year's pace. Wetter weather for Europe over the weekend and throughout the coming week should ease some of the concerns over winter wheat here.
Old Crop EU Wheat Higher, New Crop Lower (Again)
16/04/12 -- EU grains finished mixed but mostly lower. May 12 London wheat rose GBP0.85/tonne to GBP176.50/tonne but new crop months were GBP1.20/tonne to GBP 2.05/tonne lower. May 12 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne higher at EUR209.25/tonne, new crop was EUR2.25 to 2.75/tonne lower.
Old crop London wheat is clearly outperforming, continuing to widen the gap between it and new crop. A week ago the May 12/Nov 12 spread was GBP14.70/tonne and today it's GBP23.65/tonne, almost a GBP9.00/tonne difference in a week.
For the month of April so far May 12 London wheat has gained GBP1.75/tonne whilst Nov 12 has lost GBP8.85/tonne. Based on tonight's close May 12 London wheat is worth around EUR4.30/tonne more than the same position in Paris.
The pound rose to it's highest levels against the euro since September 2010 today on heightened concerns over Spanish debt.
French crop conditions from FranceAgriMer suggest that the winter wheat crop is now rated 62% good/excellent versus 75% last year, winter barley is similarly rated 55% compared to 77% in 2011, whilst the durum crop is in an even worse state at 42% good/excellent against 71% this time last year.
The USDA were due to announce spring planting progress and winter wheat crop conditions tonight, but it seems that this report may be delayed until tomorrow due to a technical problem. The market is expecting corn plantings to have raced to a record 20% done as of Sunday night, with spring wheat sowings progressing to a huge 50% complete. Widespread weekend rains and more of the same is seen boosting early spring crop development.
Russian railway operator Rusagrotrans say that Russian grain exports as of the end of March stood at 22.3 MMT for the current marketing year. Ukraine's stood at 15.3 MMT and Kazakhstan's at 7.7 MMT, they added. Full 2011/12 marketing year (July/June) exports are seen at 25.7 MMT from Russia, with Ukraine at 21.0 MMT and Kazakhstan at 12.5 MMT, they estimate.
Morocco bought 180,000 MT of wheat of unknown origin and Libya bought 30,000 MT of Russian wheat in various weekend tenders.
EU Rapemeal Prices
16/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little lower today in line with weaker soymeal prices overnight. Nearby availability remains fully tight though.
Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day:
| Apr12 | 245.00 | unch |
| May/Jul12 | 242.00 | unch |
| Aug/Oct12 | 207.00 | -2.00 |
| Nov12/Jan13 | 209.00 | unch |
| Feb/Apr13 | 211.00 | unch |
| May/Jul13 | 204.00 | +1.00 |
| Aug/Oct13 | 175.00 | n/a |
| Nov13/Jan14 | 185.00 | n/a |
Early Call On Chicago
16/04/12 -- The overnight grains ended with beans 10 cents or so lower, corn down 8-10 cents and wheat 6-7 cents weaker in a general "risk-off" vibe.
Greek woes now seem but a distant memory as Spain gets reluctantly dragged into the limelight. Worries over Chinese growth are also giving the market a few jitters.
Brazil's Safras say that the soybean harvest there is 85% complete, compared to 87% a year ago and 78% normally.
Weekend rain activity provided beneficial moisture to much of the US Plains and Midwest. That may slow plantings a bit, but that isn't a problem at this stage and will certainly do more good than harm.
Wetter weather for Europe over the weekend and throughout the coming week should also be of benefit.
The NOPA March soybean crush was 140.5 million bushels, up more than 4 million from Feb but below trade estimates.
Soy meal open interest is at the highest since December 17th, 2007. Spec soybean longs are running at record levels and length in corn is also significant. For wheat however they hold a hefty short.
The USDA will report after the close on US planting progress and crop conditions. Last week we had spring wheat at 21% complete, corn sowings at 7% planted and winter wheat good/excellent jumping from 58% to 61%, well ahead of the 36% this time a year ago.
Some reports suggest that corn plantings may have jumped to as much as 20% complete now that insurance qualification dates have been met. I don't see the corn number being quite that high personally. Spring wheat sowings may hit 50% done, some suggest.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 8-10 cents, corn & wheat 6-8 cents lower.
The Morning Vibe
16/04/12 -- The overnight grains are lower across the board with beans 8-10c easier, corn down 6-7c and wheat falling 5-6c. Brent crude is below USD120 and the pound is up to its highest against the euro since September 2010.
The euro is under pressure on heightened concerns over Spanish debt, and so it should be as details of just how heavily the previous government cooked the books begin to emerge.
Slowing economic growth in China in also grabbing plenty of headlines this morning in what is already shaping up to be a "risk off" kind of a day.
Dark forces seem to be at work in May London feed wheat, which is now around EUR3.50/tonne more expensive than French milling wheat based on Friday's closing levels. On the last trading day of 2011 the differential between May 12 & Nov 12 London wheat was only £4.25/tonne, on Friday it was £21.60/tonne. Déjà vu anybody?
Many parts of the US Plains and Midwest got beneficial "heavy and widespread" rains over the weekend, according to WxRisk.com.
At home, the Environment Agency warn that the UK drought could last until Christmas. Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman says "it is vital that we use less water to protect the public's water supply." Right, I'd better go and drain the moat then, just as soon as I've filled the swimming pool up with petrol and panic bought twenty dozen first class stamps.
