Gordon is a moron
Gordon Brown’s first electoral test turned into a nightmare tonight as Labour lost an astonishing 331 council seats.
In London, Boris Johnson appeared to be ending the eight-year reign of Ken Livingstone, delivering one more body blow to the Prime Minister as Labour lost a quarter of the councillors who stood for the party on Thursday.
The bloodbath consumed victims across the country, including the North and Wales, leaving Labour’s local government and campaigning base severely weakened.
Ministers now fear for their chances of surviving the next general election and Mr Brown’s authority was further damaged.
Today’s huge reverses make it almost certain that the next general election will take place in 2010 rather than next year. Mr Brown has an electoral mountain to climb to get his party into a position to win it.
Whats happened in previous US late planting years?
By Roy Smith, Nebraska farmer & freelance journo:
One tool that market analysts use in predicting future price moves is to look at what prices did in previous years that are similar to the current year. There is no analog year in which prices are similar to this year. When prices are at historic highs, it is impossible to draw exact parallels. However, there are years when planting and growing conditions were similar to this year.
The two years with the worst planting conditions in my farming career were 1982 and 1984. In both of those years, there was essentially no planting done in May. Some farmers got corn planted in April. The rest was finished in June.
These two years look quite different in the market's response to late planting. In 1982 the corn market completely ignored the late planting. The price trended down from April to November. December futures started out in the $3.00 neighborhood and ended at $2.15. November Soybeans peaked in May. Then they trended lower through October. The total price move was from $6.90 to $5.25.
I do not remember how widespread the planting delays were in 1982. It is possible that the worst might have been in eastern Nebraska. I do remember that it was very frustrating to have the crop conditions so bad with prices dropping at the same time.
Planting conditions were similar in 1984. However, the market responded with an early weather rally in both grains. I remember that there was concern about the late planting nation wide. The crop finally did get planted in most areas. When the crop was finally planted, prices dropped from late June through harvest. In 1984 December corn futures went from approximately $3.16 to $2.55 from June through October. November soybean futures dropped from $7.65 to $5.85 from June through harvest.
In the two years discussed, yields were affected by late planting. In 1982 my farm average corn yield was 84. Much of the yield reduction was the result of light test weight and high harvest moisture content. Soybeans yielded 19.7 in 1984. It was the lowest soybean yield in my farming career. Following a very wet April and May, the summer was very dry.
There are some obvious differences between those early years and today. At least at my location, no-till makes it possible to plant sooner following rain. Planters are much bigger and more sophisticated. The other side of this the excellent demand and the need for a bumper crop.
From analyzing other years, it appears that rallies caused by late planting are opportunities for selling. It is difficult to sell when there is a concern about not getting your crop into the ground. It amazes me how much corn was planted in my neighborhood this week. I finished my corn on Wednesday. It will not take many nice days for my neighbors to finish up.
Latest UK trades/offers/comment
Talking to a large northern compounder this morning I asked him if he was up to much, he said he'd been in the office until 9pm earlier in the week processing feed orders. Today he said he's picked the phones up twice just to check that they are still working! Anyone who wanted feed in May has got their order in last month at last month's prices. No surprises there then.
The rapemeal market continues to drift lower as crushers and shippers alike remain aggressive sellers and buyers are cautious and unsure of demand this summer. There is still some front-end premium to be had, if there is any buying interest around that's where it is. June onwards however is friendless.
Erith quotes today: Spot May fixings £170 traded yesterday; May unfixed 169; Jun/Jul £163; Aug/Oct £148; and Nov08/Apr09 at £155.
The wheatfeed trade is still in stand-off mode with millers holding out for last months prices and consumers looking for next months! Whilst some compounders still have tonnage left to take from old April contracts that should at least provide some off-take at the beginning of the month. What is going to happen as May wears on however is a different kettle of fish.
Spot Liverpool soya hulls reported traded yesterday morning at £141, then widely reported in the afternoon at £143. This is up from last week's traded levels of £138-140. If any millers are still a seller at last week's money on this one then I'm your man!
Spot/May Liverpool PKs have been trading recently at £136. Also got some resale offers on spot citrus pellets, spot Liverpool 48% soya, May/Jul Humber tapioca & Braz maize all £POA.
Full IP hipro soya very limited quantities available around £330.00 spot ex Humber.
Suns 32% Argy small quantity available ex Liv around £187.00
Spot maize distillers grains on resale ex Avon last reported done at £192 earlier in the week.
Early call on Chicago
Corn futures are expected to open 2 to 4 lower; soybeans mixed; wheat mostly 2 to 4 higher. Corn is called a bit lower on less rain in the forecast for the Corn Belt. Trading action was very slow in overnight trade.
Not a very inspiring call that one is it? In fact it's so uninspiring that I've invoked the spirit of Septic Peg, my mystic guide from beyond the grave, to fill me in on what tonight's close is going to be.
Septic tells me that corn will see a light sell-off ahead of the weekend and finish the session 6-8c easier. Beans will be up & down like a brides nightie before closing around 5c lower. Wheat will continue to dither around in the wings ending around unchanged.
27.7M poor Americans on food benefits
From the FT:
An escalating global food crisis could bring the problem of hunger home to the US and other developed countries.
Millions of poor Americans risk going hungry if food prices continue to rise and food agencies struggle to cope with rising costs, dwindling resources and a huge increase in demand.
Already more and more poor people in the US are turning to charity and government assistance as they struggle with rising food costs and soaring fuel bills. Even some stores are restricting bulk rice purchases as the grain reached a fresh high on Thursday.
Laurie True, executive director of the California Women Infants and Children Program Association, said local agencies were reporting a sharp increase in new enrolments. “That’s the canary in the coal mine,” she said. “These are people that don’t normally claim benefits.”
James Weill, president of the Food Research and Action Center, said the number of Americans on food stamps had reached 27.7m in January, the highest number since the programme began more than 40 years ago. The measure does not count all those in trouble as only about 65 per cent of those eligible for food stamps seek help.
Suspend biofuel rules, say MPs
FT:
Regulations mandating the use of biofuels must be suspended, MPs warned the government on Thursday amid mounting political alarm.
Ministers have conceded they may have to rethink biofuels policy because of growing concerns about their effect on food prices and the environment.
The call from the Commons environmental audit committee comes as the industry warned that Britain would have enough surplus wheat production to support only three large ethanol plants, even though several more were being planned.
Britain’s biodiesel industry has already undergone a precipitous collapse, hit by cheap foreign imports including subsidised biodiesel from the US, and suffers from severe overcapacity.
Read the full story here A giant pack of cards supported entirely by government subsidies that sees agri & oil giants raking in billions
And have a particular chortle at the last paragraph:
"They rejected ministers’ argument that it would be harmful to investors to renege on their biofuels targets."
My heart bleeds for them.
Indian Gvt buys 15.4MMT Local Wheat So Far
India's Finance Minister P.Chidambaram said Friday that government agencies have acquired 15.4 million tons of wheat as of yesterday, higher than last year's 11.1 million tons and above the full year requirement of 15 million tons.
Purchases top 15 million metric tons for the first time in two years because of a higher market intervention price and bumper production.
Considering that the Indian harvest only started in March & government purchases only began April, thats a phenomenal figure in such a short period. Its not likely that we are going to be seeing India tendering for wheat anytime soon.
Chicago closing comments
Guess what? Nothing really very new. The Chicago market briefly touched limit down (-70c) on soybeans, before rebounding a bit to close down 43c nearby, with wheat down 10-18c and corn up around 5-6c.
Despite a volatile session there wasn't an awful lot of fresh news in the market.
Crude oil was lower, dragging soy down with it. Wet weather & planting concerns added to soybeans woes & ultimately supported corn. Wheat was in no mans land but the prospect of much larger crops on the horizon in the northern hemisphere was again enough to send futures lower.
None of that is particularly fresh yet it was still sufficient to cause some pretty major moves. I wonder what will happen when we do get some fresh market news!
