The New Citroen Burningo
The French government says vandals burned 30 percent more cars on New Year's Eve this year than during the holiday last year.
Burning cars on the last day of the year has become a tradition in rundown French suburbs.
The Interior Ministry said 1,147 cars were burned overnight, compared with 878 last year. It said the police had arrested 288 people during the night, up from 259 last year.
I hate those cheese-eating surrender monkeys. Why do all Frenchmen smell? So blind people can hate them more easily.
Melamine Bhuna Anyone?
Scientists and consumer groups are raising concerns that fish from China might also be contaminated with melamine.
China is the world's largest producer of farm-raised seafood, exporting billions of dollars worth of shrimp, catfish, tilapia, salmon and other fish.
Industry experts say that melamine has been routinely added into fish and animal feed to artificially boost protein readings.
And new research suggests that, unlike in cows and pigs, the edible flesh in fish that have been fed melamine contains residue of the nitrogen-rich substance.
Laboratory studies in the U.S. of melamine-fed catfish, trout, tilapia and salmon by the FDA's Animal Drugs Research Center found that fish tissues had melamine concentrations of up to 200 parts per million.
That's 80 times the maximum "tolerable" amount set by the FDA for safe consumption.
Tilapia is widely used in Chinese and Indian restaurants in the UK.
Brazilian Crop Weather
Brazilian weather watchers report mostly dry conditions across the holiday period except for a few light showers across Rio Grande do Sul. Temperatures ranging 75-94F.
Dry conditions are forecast to continue across much of the country's corn belt, with just a few showers, locally heavier across Parana, with temperatures around normal for the time of year.
The forecast calls for mostly dry conditions Saturday through Tuesday.
The corn harvest is already nearly complete across northeastern Brazil, with quality generally lower on persistent dryness.
Overnight Developments
There is no eCBOT market today, so we will have to wait until 3.30pm to see which way the market is going to go on the first trading day of 2009.
Crude oil is trading however, and after closing 14% higher on New Year's Eve, is around 8% lower on ideas that that particular rally was overdone.
News emerges today that Russian gas supplier Gazprom is to re-open talks with Ukraine over natural gas supplies, after cutting off supplies yesterday morning.
Crude is $3.31 lower at $41.29/barrel.
Whilst there are clear signs that US refineries are cutting back production, falling consumption is still seeing stocks building. OPEC's recently announced cuts will eventually start to filter through into the supply chain come the spring, analysts reckon.
The situation in the Middle East is keeping traders nervous, after Nizar Rayan, a senior Hamas leader, has been killed in an Israeli airstrike on Gaza. Most analysts however seem to think that it is unlikely to have any significant threat to world supplies.
In the grains sector South American weather appears to be the main factor at the moment, with the Argy wheat crop already decimated by drought, concerns are now switching to the possible effect on the Brazilian and Argy corn and soybean crops.
Mortgage approvals in the UK edged lower to 27K in November, the lowest level since 1991, from a revised down of 31K in previous month as falling home values paired with the ongoing turmoil in the credit market curbed demands for home investments.
The pound is up to the dizzy heights of 1.0430 against the euro, although it did get above 10.06 on New year's Eve. Against the dollar we languish around $1.4530 as the greenback is buoyed by falling crude oil.
JD Wetherspoon has cut the price of a pint of beer to less than £1 and lowered the cost of other drinks and meals in a bid to attract customers as the pub industry faces one of its toughest years. The chain will sell pints of Greene King IPA and bottles of San Miguel for 99p.
That's going to encourage even more piss-stained tramps, vagabonds and ne'er-do-wells into the place. I might pop down at lunchtime.
Russia Shuts Off Gas Supplies to Ukraine
Russia has stopped all gas supplies to Ukraine after the collapse of talks to end a row over unpaid bills and prices.
Russia's gas giant Gazprom said it turned off the taps at 0700 GMT, when its contract to supply Ukraine ended.
Ukraine insists it has paid off its debts to Gazprom, but Russia contests this. The two countries have also failed to agree on a price for 2009.
A similar row between Gazprom and Ukraine at the beginning of 2006 led to gas shortages in several EU countries.
Crude Oil Posts Large Gain On Last Day Of 2008
Crude oil futures closed the last day of trading in 2008 posting 14% gains as the bulls emerged from their hideouts. Still, futures are down 54 percent this year, the first annual decline since 2001, and down around 70% from the July all-time high of $147.27/barrel.
Whilst Energy Dept data shows that US gasoline & distillate inventories rose in the week to 26 Dec, the increases were much lower than anticipated.
US refineries operated at 82.5 percent of capacity last week, down 2.2 percentage points from the week before and the lowest since the period ended Oct. 10 when the Gulf Coast was recovering from hurricanes Gustav and Ike.
Gasoline stockpiles increased by 800,000 barrels, less than forecasts for a 1.5-1.7 million barrel build, while distillates rose by 700,000 barrels, below expectations for a 1.1-1.5 million barrel increase.
The news is of particular interest as refiners often shut units for maintenance in late January and February as heating-oil demand falls and before gasoline use rises. Whilst the data does confirm that US consumers are continuing to use less, a heavy shutdown period in the new year could soon turn a surplus into a deficit, analysts said.
A dispute between Russia and Ukraine over gas supplies may see Ukraine forced to turn to Europe for supplies in the new year. Russia's gas export monopoly Gazprom said on Wednesday that talks with Ukraine over gas prices for 2009 have failed, making a cut-off of gas to Ukraine on January1 unavoidable.
Signs that OPEC members are finally biting the bullet and adhering to quota cuts, and the ongoing tensions in the Middle East added to the nervous tone.
To keep prices at the recent recent extreme lows, the world needs to be a quiet place both economically and geopolitically.
CBOT Closing Comments (31st Dec)
Corn
March corn futures closed double-digits higher in today's session. July corn futures also traded higher. These gains in corn were in part due to a late rally in grains and crude oil futures. Crude oil futures during the afternoon trading session soared to over $4 in gains. A large block of market-on-close & end of year orders sent corn futures (which traded lower most of the day), to a sharply higher close. This afternoon the USDA issued a report of its 5-year revisions to US production and ending stocks estimates. As expected the USDA report did not contain any major market-shaking information. One revision to note was a reduction of 36 million bushels of corn to the 2007 production, from 13.073 billion to 13.037 billion. Due to the holidays, US export sales of corn and other grains for last week will not be released until this Friday. March corn closed at $4.07, up 10 3/4 cents; July corn closed at $4.28, up 11 cents.
Soybeans
January soy futures complex ended higher after trading mixed most of today's session. An afternoon rally in crude oil contributed to a bean oil rally and pushed the soy complex further into bull territory. Most of the soybean rally was provided by a large block of market-on-close & end-of-year orders. Scattered showers are forecasted in southern Brazil later this week, but not expected to alleviate current dry conditions there. Dry weather conditions continue in Argentina. This afternoon the 5-year revision report by the USDA did not contain any significant changes to soybean production or ending stocks. January soybean ended at $9.72 1/4, up 26 1/2 cents; January soy meal ended at $300.50, up $2.50; January soy oil at $33.29, up $1.18.
Wheat
March wheat futures in Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis settled higher this trading session. A late, large block of market-on-close & end-of-year orders provided enough bullish support to rally wheat. This afternoon rally erased the lows wheat were trading during most of the morning, to have wheat futures to end in positive territory. Bullish spillover from the equities market also contributed to wheat's rally. Iraq bought wheat from 3 other countries, but not from the higher priced US. CBOT March wheat settled at $6.10 3/4, up 6 cents; KCBT March wheat settled at $6.30, up 8 1/4 cents; MGEX March wheat settled at $6.30, up 8 1/4 cents.
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Overnight Markets
eCBOT is lower across the board as 2008 draws to a close, with corn, soybeans and wheat all heading for their first annual declines for four years.
Despite hitting record highs earlier in the year, corn seems set to close around 14-15% lower than where we left 2007, with soybeans set to post declines of around 22% and wheat, which peaked earlier, down by around a third.
Traders will be looking to square up positions, if they haven't done so already in a shortened session this afternoon ahead of tomorrows holiday. Friday will likely also be a non-event, with the real fun and games starting again on Monday 5th January 2009.
It will be interesting to see which way the market goes next Monday, I think that it's highly likely to do something dramatic. And my money is already on sharply higher.
Dryness in South America is now becoming a very serious problem (see "Is It Already Too Late For Brazil?" and "Argy Wheat Crop 'Dismal'" posted recently on Nogger's Blog).
Wheat stocks have been replenished with a bumper crop in 2008, but boy did they need to be. Projected 2008/09 world ending stocks however are still well below the previous 10-year average of 174.8 million tons.
Reduced plantings and fewer inputs due to price and credit considerations are likely to see lower production in Europe, Russia, China and the US in 2009. That doesn't give us much room for any serious weather problems.
These issues may, and in my opinion should, start to concentrate traders' minds once we are into 2009.
Best wishes for healthy & prosperous New Year.
Nogger
