My Favourite Headline Of The Weekend....
.....Kraft Posts Cadbury Offer.
Are they mad? Haven't they heard of email? Kraft Twitters Cadbury Offer might have been a safer, more reliable option.
I can see the headlines in six months:
Hershey Ferrero Cadbury CEO: "What offer?"
One Year's Time:
Kraft Offer Found Stuck To Back Of Radiator In Birmingham Sorting Office - Post Office Offer Full 39 Pence Refund.
CBOT Closing Comments
Soybeans
January soybean futures closed at USD10.43, down 4 cents; December soymeal at USD320.90, down USD0.60; December soyoil at 39.76 cents, down 0.01 points. Soybean prices closed lower on the day and slightly lower for the week. News that the US jobless rate unexpectedly fell from 10.2% to 10% last month sent the dollar higher. The news also sent gold crashing more than USD65/oz, after reaching a succession of daily highs all this week. Crude oil also fell, which all combined to drag the grains complex lower.
Corn
December corn futures finished at USD3.73 ¾, down 11 ½ cents; March corn futures at USD3.88 ½, down 12 ¼ cents. The combo of stronger dollar, weaker crude and gold also dragged corn lower Friday. With more than a fifth of US corn still to be harvested as of last Sunday, the USDA will report Monday night on how much progress has been made this past week. Field losses will mount the longer corn harvesting is strung out in December, as stalks weakened by mould are prone to leaning and toppling over. Research by Ohio State University agronomists indicates that December harvesting causes corn losses of 15-20%, say Martell Crop Projections.
Wheat
December CBOT wheat futures closed at USD5.36 ¾, down 13 cents; December KCBT wheat futures at USD5.36, down 12 ½ cents; December MGEX wheat futures at USD5.48, down 13 ¾ cents. This was the day in succession of declines for wheat. The dollar and outside markets also pressed wheat lower, along with news that US wheat again lost out to Russian/German wheat in Egypt's latest tender. Reports that some US wheat was sold to Brazil in Thursday's USDA weekly export sales report was a promising sign, as they are one of the world's largest buyers. With Argentina in the midst of their second disastrously small crop in succession, Brazil will be forced to look elsewhere for much of it's requirements in 2010.
EU Wheat Mixed In Quiet Trade
EU wheat closed the week narrowly mixed in another very quiet trading session Friday.
March Paris milling wheat futures closed down EUR0.50 at EUR133.50/tonne, and London May feed wheat futures ended up GBP0.20 at GBP112.70/tonne.
Trading in London was particularly light, with less than fifty lots traded all day. An assortment of trade functions Thursday/Friday have been keeping traders away form their desks for much of the past two days.
A weaker tone to the US market in the absence of fund support this week has also added a little bit of downwards pressure.
In short, there doesn't seem like there will be much activity now until the new year, and we will probably see futures trade only EUR1-GBP1/day either way until after Christmas.
After that London wheat's best hopes of a price increase rest on a significant pick-up in demand. This is going to have to come from the bioethanol sector and/or a sharp decline in the value of the pound.
Indian Food Price Inflation Running At 17.5 Percent
Complete inactivity from the Indian government to help arrest spiraling prices has seen food price inflation at the wholesale level rise 17.47 per cent for the third week of November, up from the previous week's yearly rise of 15.58 per cent.
This followed a surge in the price of basics such as potatoes and onions, which were up 94.17 per cent and 30.89 per cent respectively year-on-year. Pulses were up 37.83 per cent, reports the Hindu Business Line.
The constant stream of rhetoric from the government, insisting that "there's plenty of food to go round, don't panic" must be starting to wear quite thin by now.
And where the hell is that key to the key to that bloody wheat shed??
Turkey Report Sharp Increases In Wheat/Barley Output
In contrast to most countries, where 2009/10 grain output is lower than 2008/09's record production, grain output in Turkey this year is seen sharply higher, due to increased plantings and favourable weather.
The Turkish Statistical Institute reports that the 2009 wheat crop in is up by 16% this year to 20.5 MMT (2008: 17.8 MMT). Barley production increased by an even greater amount, up 23% to 7.2 MMT (from 5.9 MMT), corn output was around unchanged at 4.3 MMT.
CBOT Closing Comments
Soybeans
January soybeans ended 13 cents higher at USD10.47, December soymeal ended USD4.20 higher at USD321.50, and December soyoil finished unchanged at 39.75 cents per pound. Weekly export sales were pretty reasonable once again, although slightly below the levels that we've been used to at 722,600 MT, shipments themselves were also robust at 1,363,700 MT, with China again figuring prominently.
Corn
December corn ended down 6 1/2 cents at USD3.85 1/4 per bushel, and March corn ended 5 3/4 cents lower at USD4.00 3/4 per bushel. Weekly export sales of 659,000 MT were in line with forecasts of 400-900,000 MT. A weak dollar and firm outside markets were supportive, as too was talk that the US harvest continues to lag and that some soggy fields will be left until the spring.
Wheat
March wheat finished down 4 1/2 cents at USD5.71 1/2 a bushel. Kansas City Board of Trade March wheat fell 3 1/2 cents to USD5.62, and Minneapolis Grain Exchange March wheat dropped 3 cents to end at USD5.77 1/4. Weekly export sales of 390,700 MT were in line with forecasts of 300-500,000 MT. Egypt once again passed on US wheat in it's tender buying Russian and German wheat.
EU Wheat Market Ends Quietly Mixed
EU wheat closed mixed Thursday, with little in the way of fresh impetus to influence prices one way or another.Paris March milling wheat futures closed up EUR0.50 at EUR134.00/tonne, whilst London May feed wheat futures ended flat at GBP112.50/tonne.
The trade seems to already have closed up shop for Christmas.
Stats Canada today pegged all wheat production there at 26.515 MMT, nearly 2 MMT up on their last September estimate.
Reports from Australia continue to indicate that a succession of 30+ degree days through much of November followed by very heavy rains have caused some issues with yields and quality.
Egypt reportedly bought 240,000 MT of Russian/German wheat in a tender today.
eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight grains closed firmer with beans up around 9 cents, wheat around 5 cents higher and corn up 3 cents or so.
Support came from the weaker dollar, investor enthusiasm and gold hitting another all-time high.
News that the Bank of America would repay USD45 billion of TARP loans appears to have got investors back in the mood, which in turn sent the 'safe' dollar lower.
Crude initially dragged itself higher earlier, despite the US Energy Dept confirming yesterday what the API had said the day before, crude stocks rose by 2 million barrels last week to the highest levels since August. Gasoline inventories also rose by 4 million barrels, whilst fuel demand fell 3.2% year-on-year.
Crude has subsequently slipped from an intra-day high of USD77.50/barrel to currently stand at a little over USD76/barrel.
Weekly export sales were all in line with pre-report estimates. Whilst China again was the main protagonist for soybeans, booking 312,300 MT, activity was somewhat reduced from the very large numbers we have recently got used to seeing.
Even so we don't need to see many sales now to hit the USDA's soybean export target which is only up 3.5% from last year's record pace, yet sales so far are up 58% & actual shipments are up 33%.
The weather in South America remains a bit of a conundrum, too dry in the west of Argentina and too wet in southern Brazil and Uruguay. Brazil will continue to see heavy rainfall, as much as 16-inches, across the Center-West, Centre-South and the SE too, according to QT Weather.
Brazil popped up as a buyer in the USDA's weekly export sales for wheat, the US will be hoping that they might become a regular feature from now on.
Certainly they aren't getting much of a look in with the world's biggest wheat buyer Egypt. They've bought 240,000 MT of Russian/German wheat in a tender today.
Delivery intentions for corn have picked up a little from earlier in the week at 826 contracts, whilst wheat is a little lighter, although still plentiful, at 3,288 contracts.
Stats Canada say that all wheat production there was 26.515 MMT, nearly 2 MMT up on their last September estimate. Barley and rapeseed output estimates were also increased.
Reports from Australia continue to indicate that a succession of 30+ degree days through much of November followed by very heavy rains have caused some issues with yields and quality.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 2 to 4 higher; beans called 7 to 10 higher; wheat called 3 to 5 higher.
Where it will all end depends on funds and outside markets, support from crude has fallen away and fund activity has been confined to the beginning of the week recently. I'll call corn to end 3-5 lower, beans around unchanged to 4 higher and wheat 6-10 lower.
