Chicago Grains End Lower
16/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower. The move came despite the USDA reporting net weekly export sales of 816,400 MT for 2015/2016, up 8 percent from the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average. There were also new crop sales of 768,600 MT reported primarily for China (475,000 MT) and unknown destinations (185,000 MT). Actual export of 124,800 MT weren't too bright though. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.34 1/2, down 21 1/2 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.19 1/4, down 19 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $397.70, down $9.50; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.16, down 80 points.
Corn: The market closed lower. Weekly export sales of sales of 909,700 MT for 2015/2016 were down 39 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average. For 2016/2017, net sales of 178,700 MT were reported for unknown destinations (42,700 MT), Mexico (40,000 MT), Japan (30,500 MT), and Panama (21,500 MT). Exports of 1,507,900 MT were a marketing-year high and were up 27 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.25 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents;p Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.30 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market finished lower. Weekly export sales of 762,900 MT were reported for delivery in marketing year 2016/2017, which was better than expected. Exports of 351,800 MT were reported to Japan (74,300 MT), the Philippines (50,500 MT), Mexico (46,300 MT), Nigeria (43,200 MT), Guatemala (36,900 MT) and Peru (34,400 MT). Saudi Arabia are tendering for 300,000 MT of hard wheat. Algeria bought 150,000 MT of optional origin (EU/Black Sea?) wheat for new crop shipment. Japan bought US/Canadian/Oz wheat. Egypt might be back in the market soon it is thought. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.84 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.68 1/2, down 6 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.38 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Grind Lower
16/06/16 -- EU grains closed mostly weaker for a third day, with with Jul 16 London wheat down GBP0.90/tonne at GBP108.55/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat falling EUR1.75/tonne at EUR162.50,tonne, Aug corn was EUR3.00/tonne lower at EUR182.50/tonne and Aug 16 rapeseed was down EUR5.00/tonne to EUR364.25/tonne.
US gains were red across the board, and that sentiment spilled over into European trade.
Yet again fresh news was lacking, and down seems to be the route of least resistance.
Saudi Arabia tendered for 300,000 MT of hard wheat. with the results expected over the weekend. Algeria were said to have bought 150,000 MT of optional origin wheat for Aug/Sep shipment.
Egypt may soon return to the market, having bought 5 MMT domestically in recent months from their newly harvest 2016/17 crop, say the HGCA.
Wet weather continues across France and most of central Europe. Rain makes grain is the old adage, so yields could be bumper this year, but what about quality? Is France in for an abundance of low-quality wheat, much as we saw a couple of years ago?
Only time will tell, but it certainly looks to be a possibility.
The Spanish Association of grain traders said that they expect yields to be significantly higher this year, with winter wheat production forecast 33.9% higher at 7.26 MMT. Barley output is seen rising even more - up 61% to 10.3 MMT.
Chicago Ends Lower Despite Some Friendly News
15/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed lower for a third day. That came despite the NOPA crush report for May showing its members crushed a record 152.82 million bushels of beans last month. The Rosario Grain Exchange increased its 2015/16 Argentinean soybean production estimate by 300,000 MT to 55.3 MMT (USDA: 56.0 MMT). Conab lowered Brazil by 1.27 MMT to 95.63 MMT (USDA: 97.0 MMT). They see exports at 54.1 MMT (USDA: 58.75 MMT). CNGOIC estimated China's soybean imports to reach 85 MMT in 2016/17 (UDSA: 87 MMT). Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 500 TMT to 1.5 MMT over both crop years. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.56, down 13 1/2 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.38 1/2, down 10 3/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $407.20, down $1.40; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.96, down 56 points.
Corn: The corn market finished the day reversing all of Tuesday's losses. Again, this was despite their being some friendly information about. The US Energy Dept put weekly US ethanol production at an all time high 1.013 million barrels per day, and up 7,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Russia said it's 2016 corn crop was 93% planted. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weely export sales report for corn range from 800,000 MT to 1.6 MMT. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.29, down 7 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.34, down 7 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. The Argentine Ag Min said that wheat plantings there for the 2016/17 harvest could grow 23% to 5 million ha. Production could therefore increase 36% to 15.37 MMT, with exports rising to 9 MMT, of which 5 MMT could go to neighbouring Brazil, they said. It's not out of the way, Argentina has produced and exported these sorts of volumes before. Japan tendered for 112,900 MT of wheat in it;s regular weekly tender. The origins specified are US, Canadian and Australian. Weekly export sales tomorrow are expected in the region of 250-450 TMT. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.77 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.56 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.40 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Lower
15/06/16 -- EU grains finished in the red across the entire board in Paris, with London wheat unchanged. Jul 16 London close flat at GBP109.45/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat was down EUR1.75/tonne at EUR164.25/tonne, Aug corn was EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR185.50/tonne and Aug 16 rapeseed was down EUR5.00/tonne to EUR372.25/tonne.
Weaker US markets, pre-harvest pressure and nervousness ahead of next week's UK referendum vote encouraged a bit of selling.
Fresh news was generally lacking.
Worries over the quality of this year's French wheat crop are keeping a floor in the market for the time being, at least until more is known once the harvest commences.
As the search for foreign wheat homes continues, Reuters reported that the French port of Dunkirk was this week loading 66,000 MT of wheat for Vietnam - the first such sale in 25 years.
The HGCA noted that "rapeseed is still not in control of its own destiny" saying it's fortunes are closely aligned to those of palm and soybeans. US beans were down today, and rapeseed followed suit despite strong underlying fundamentals.
Russia reported spring wheat plantings fully complete, with barley past 96% done and corn sowings on 93%.
Chicago Ends Lower
14/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed mostly lower. Fresh news was lacking, so it looks like a bit of profit-taking/consolidation kicked in. US crop conditions are generally good and prospects are looking favourable at this early stage. The USDA reported 110,000 MT of US soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2016/17 delivery. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.69 1/2, up 1/2 cent; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.49 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $408.60, up $0.20; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.52, up 1 point.
Corn: The corn market closed higher. Private exporters reported that 136,000 MT of US corn was sold to Japan this morning, with 60,000 MT of that slated for 2015/16 delivery. A few reports of hot and dry weather hurting the newly sown US crop are doing the rounds. That maybe enough to encourage some short-covering. It's still very early and US crop prospects are still good however. The prospect of a UK vote whether or not to leave the EU next week is maybe prompting some nervousness. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.36 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.41 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on harvest pressure. The USDA peg the 2016 US winter wheat harvest at 11% complete as of Sunday night. Unlike beans and corn there were no daily export sales to support a wheat fully aware of competitive pressures elsewhere. ABARES increased their forecast for the Australian wheat crop to 25.4 MMT vs the 24.5 MMT previously expected. One or two concerns remain over French wheat, although carryover stocks from last season are large. Quality downgrades could be the biggest threat there this year. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.85, down 6 1/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.58 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.43 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Lower As Harvest Nears
Front month Jul 16 London wheat closed down GBP2.30/tonne at GBP109.45/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat was EUR3.75/tonne easier at EUR165.50/tonne, Aug corn closed EUR1.75/tonne lower at EUR186.00/tonne and Aug 16 Paris rapeseed closed EUR2.75/tonne weaker at EUR377.25/tonne.
Fresh news was lacking and the market is conscious that new crop will soon be upon us. Whilst Europe may have made sterling efforts to shift last season's crop, carryover into 2016/17 remains much larger than normal.
Excessive wetness concerns in France add support for now, at least until the harvest there begins and we get some firm reports on yields from the field. Rains are persisting in the northern parts of France.
Russia said that they'd planted 13.6 million ha of spring wheat, which is 103.2% of the original Ministry forecast. Production forecasts their this year are creeping higher.
Spring barley planting is said to be 96.1% done on 7.8 million ha.
Russian customs data shows that they exported 13.436 MMT of grains Jan 1 to Jun 14 this year, of which 56% (7.73 MMT) was wheat.
That takes grain exports since the start of the season to 36.35 MMT, of which wheat accounts for 66% (23.79 MMT).
Rains in Australia are strengthening the prospect of a good harvest there for 2016/17. with Abares now calling their wheat crop at 25.4 MMT vs the 24.5 MMT previously expected.
The reduced their canola production estimate from 3.27 MMT to 3.2 MMT.
Chicago Closing Report- Monday
13/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower after an early rally attempt faded out. Weekly USDA export inspections reported today were 136,506 MT. Informa raised their acreage estimate for US soybeans in 2016 to 83.761 million, up 750k from their previous guess and 1.5m up on a year ago. After the close USDA indicated that 92% of the US bean crop has been planted, 7 points ahead of last year. They increased good to excellent crop ratings by 2 points to 74%. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.69, down 9 1/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.59, down 3 3/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $408.40, down $5.60; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.51, down 25 points.
Corn: The market closed with decent gains. Informa updated its planted acreage figure for US corn to 92.566 million acres, down 810k from its previous forecast. Weekly export inspections reported by USDA this morning were strong at 1.697 MMT also adding support. The USDA left corn crop ratings unchanged at 75% good to excellent. They said that 96% of the US corn crop is emerged, 2 points ahead of the 5 year average. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.30, up 7 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.35 1/2, up 8 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market ended mixed across the three exchanges. Weekly export inspections were 363,803 MT. Informa pegged US wheat acres at 50.2 million, down 4.5 million on last year. Spring wheat plantings are seen 10% lower year-on-year at 11.9 million. The USDA pegged the 2016 US winter wheat harvest at 11% done versus 18% complete on average at this time. Winter wheat crop condition rated good to excellent fell one point to 61%. Spring wheat condition were unchanged on the good to excellent category at 79%. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.91 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.60 3/4, down 7 3/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.50, up 3 1/4 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Higher, French Ministry Cut Rapeseed Production Estimate
13/06/16 -- EU grains closed mostly firmer, but off the intra day highs, with Jul 16 London wheat up GBP0.15/tonne at GBP111.75/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat up EUR0.75/tonne at EUR169.25,tonne, June corn was EUR01.75/tonne higher at EUR187.75/tonne and Aug 16 rapeseed was up EUR0.75/tonne to EUR380.00/tonne.
APK Inform said that this year's Russia grain harvest would total 105.7 MMT, a 2.1% increase on last year.
That's a lot of grain to shift once again, and would leave them aggressive throughout at least the first three-quarters of 2016/17.
Weekly customs data shows that Russia's grain exports last week were 308.3 MMT - more than double those of the previous week - of which wheat accounted for 210 TMT.
Ukraine's grain exports were also up last week, to 446.7 TMT from 431.6 TMT the previous week. Wheat accounted for 268.2 TMT of that total and corn 175.8 TMT. They will be harvesting new crop barley there soon and will doubtless squeeze all their exports for that into the front end of the season as usual.
Algeria announced a tender for 50,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat for Aug/Sep shipment.
The French Ag Ministry estimated rapeseed yields there this year down 4.9% at 3.39 MT/ha due to excessive rains. They predict production at 5.1 MMT, down 3.7% from a year ago and 2.2% below the 5-year average despite an increase in plantings.
Wet weather has led to a sharp increase in insect damage, along with fungal infestations and other diseases, they said.
The market is concerned that the French wheat crop might be going a similar way.
