Be Careful What You Wish For
16/04/11 -- Whilst western European growers are watching the skies for rain, yet again they've got far too much of the wet stuff to crack on with spring plantings on the Canadian Prairies.
My man Brad in Saskatchewan, who was amongst the first to flag up large scale flooding in the province last year, has done it again sending me footage from the air via this little YouTube video here.
That was shot in the Estevan/Torquay area of SE Saskatchewan, just over the border from North Dakota.
"This past fall we froze up at full saturation point and we had a fairly high amount of snow. Flooding is now predicted to exceed 100 year high marks through vast areas. Our area received up to 6 inches more wet snow last night. A very large percentage of the grid road system throughout Western Canada has flooded sections and heavy truck travel has been virtually suspended. If we have a May/June similar to last year Western Canada will be essentially unseeded. And the upper Mid West States are faring little better. Smoke that!" says Brad.
I don't smoke, Brad, I'm a clean living boy who simply sups the odd pint now and again just to be sociable like. Now that we've cleared that one up the next question to which we need to know the answer to is this: Is it true that bears really do conduct their dirty business in the woods over there? Have the council provided them with no toilet facilities whatsoever? Or do they have them, but they simply chose not to use them the dirty buggers? A bit like gypsies, but without the bling. Or a caravan, obviously. Come to think of it you never see a bear in a caravan do you, why is that I wonder? They're probably too busy writing letters of complaint to the council I reckon.
Canadian Update
My old chum Brad Eggum in Saskatchewan tells me that things might be looking up a little. "After yet another 1" soaking yesterday, our weather services agree we may be set for our big break. Not a cloud in the sky for a two week stretch they say, with some warm temps to start us off," he says.
That may help get a large chunk of the outstanding harvest in, but serious damage to quality has already been done. "bombarded by several weeks of moisture while ripe, the frost will have ruined much of the late seeded crop which would have come through the rain unharmed" he sighs.
It's a good job that the US has plenty of quality wheat it would seem.
The Canadian Situation
My good chum Brad in Southern Saskatchewan was the first guy I know to flag up the exceptionally wet sowing conditions in the spring, where he was a good few weeks ahead of anybody else blowing the whistle and banging the drum.
Suffice to say then that Brad has form. You'll be interested to hear what he's got to say about the current situation this time round then I'm sure:
"Another gloomy day presents itself for us in western Canada. Another in a long litany for us. With at most 20% of the crop in store and little progress in the past fortnight, stress levels are rising.
"Crop areas already reduced with seeding abandonment and flooding are now proving impossible to harvest through most areas. Quality is taking a major thrashing. Any cereals or pulse crops put to swath are pretty much write offs save any salvage value of feed.
"Standing grains, some being ripe for several weeks amid continuous moist conditions, are breaking down, mildewed and even showing signs of sprouting. We still show little prospect from the forecast over the next ten days of making significant progress.
"The cool wet weather has also prolonged the maturing of late seeded crops of which there were many. So along with quality issues, the general frost predicted for this late week, will curtail some production as well.
"Last season we had 20% of our harvest to go heading into October. That was nerve wracking enough. This is ............well ??........some level worse than nerve wracking I suppose!"
So I guess you could say that things aren't going to swimmingly for Brad, which is odd given the amount of water that they've got over there. So to cheer him up I'm going to send him a little present. Here you go Brad. It's alright I know he's got a sense of humour, he's Canadian not American!:
Rain Makes Grain In Canada
Wheat production in Canada this year will amount to 22.659 MMT, say Stats Canada. That's almost a million tonnes above the highest pre-report trade estimate and more than 2 MMT above the USDA.
Stats Canada peg the 2010 rapeseed crop at 10.867 MMT, also towards the upper end of trade expectations despite the disastrous start that the crop got off to.
That's still down almost a million tonnes from last season, but nowhere near as bad as some estimates earlier in the year which were below 10 MMT.
They also pegged the barley crop well above trade estimates at 8.488 MMT, again down on last season's crop of 9.5 MMT but nowhere near as bad as some had feared back in the early summer.
Here's An Interesting One For You
Farmers in Western Canada are looking at planting more winter wheat than they've ever planted this year, according to this report.
Clearly the current price levels have attracted the interest of many, combined with the idea of spreading the risk of avoiding a repetition of this spring's wash out.
Canadian Crop Conditions
Flooding continues to cause major crop damage across the province of Saskatchewan, according to Saskatchewan Agriculture's weekly Crop Report.
The problem is particularly bad in the northeast where rain on already saturated fields resulted in a range of precipitation of up to 82 mm.
Cropland topsoil moisture here continues to increase and is rated as 92 per cent surplus, according to the report.
More than half of the winter cereals in the region are showing as being behind in normal development, with more than three quarters of spring cereals and oilseeds likewise.
Crops rated as poor/very poor: 26% of winter wheat; 28% of spring wheat; 32% of barley: 35% of canola.
Canadian Rapeseed Latest
The Canadian Canola Growers Association says that rapeseed production in the world's largest exporter of the oilseed could fall 15% to around 10 MMT this year.
That's a cut of 1.8 MMT from last season, and around 2.5-3.0 MMT less than what had been anticipated earlier in the the year before the recent spring floods.
Growers only managed to seed about 85% of the crop they initially intended to, say the Association.
Those that did manage to plant now look like facing a variety of potential problems ahead. These include shallow rooting, late harvesting increasing the chances of frost damage, mould, disease and weed control.
Canadian Crop Conditions
The word on the streets filtering through from assorted incoming emails from contacts in Canada suggests that, for once, crop conditions really are as bad as the media are making out.
Saskatchewan is the worst affected province, and also the one that grows more than half the nation's wheat. Saskatchewan Agriculture's weekly Crop Report (here), released yesterday afternoon, says that only 76% of the 2010 crop has been sown so far. That's an advance of only three percentage points from a week previously.
The north east is the worst affected region, with only half the intended area in the ground. Here 87% of spring sown cereals and 88% of oilseeds are also lagging in maturity. Over half the winter wheat and spring wheat crops are rated as poor/very poor, together with 43% of canola.
Brad Eggum reports of "scenes of devastation that showed a broad sweep of the province from the south west corner (which is usually quite desert like by now) in an arc to the north east. It would not be hard to believe that 1 acre in 3 would be underwater from what I viewed. Not to mention the acres through these areas that did not get sown."
Whilst things are better in Brad's locality in the south east, "the organic market had best perk their ears up as likely not more that 40% of intended organic acres made it in the ground, as they attempt to sow later for weed control. And 40% may be generous," he warns.
It seems pretty clear that quality as well as yields are likely to be serious issues in Canada this season. The lateness of plantings also creates potential vulnerability problems should winter arrive early this year.
Canada are the largest exporter of rapeseed in the world, typically accounting for around two thirds of all international trade. They also lead the world in the export of oats and are third in the global wheat export table.
You can view a map of where Canadian spring wheat is planted here.
Stats Canada...
...are out today with their acreage figures for 2010, although they are highly questionable as they are based on a survey that finished on June 3rd, long before Canadian farmers had given up on seeding hopes. It remains to be seen how much credence the trade gives these this afternoon.
For what they are worth here's the scores on the doors (in million acres):
2010 2009/10
---------------------------------
Canola 17.894 16.199
All Wheat 22.719 24.457
Barley 8.051 8.663
Oats 3.737 3.731
Canadian Cropland
Posted today on Twitter:
Ah, that'll soon dry out!
The Canadian Situation: Talking Telephone Numbers
Was it only a fortnight ago that my Canadian correspondent Brad Eggum emailed me to flag up the planting problems they were experiencing over there? Yes, indeed it was, "the story that nobody seems to be speaking about right now" was how Brad put it.
Well, they're certainly talking about it now that's for sure. Nobody knows at this stage how much land will go unplanted, or indeed what the production implications are for what does get sown under these conditions.
It seems that as far as the former is concerned, we could be talking telephone numbers after the Canadian Wheat Board's estimate Friday that as much as 12.5 million acres of cropland could go unsown this year.
That's a huge area in a country that the USDA has down to tie with Russia as the world's third largest exporter of wheat in 2010/11, after the US and EU-27. They are of course also very significant players in the export market for oats and rapeseed - being the world's largest exporter of both.
The oats market in Chicago jumped limit up last night. The US consumes around 3 MMT of oats per year, but only produces around 1.3 MMT, making them easily the largest oat importer in the world. Almost all of their requirement comes from Canada.
The Canadians also vie with China as being the world's largest rapeseed producer, they are easily the global leader in exports. Despite a firm Canadian dollar Winnipeg rapeseed futures were also sharply higher last night, settling at their highest levels since January.
Whatever acreage does manage to ultimately get sown in Canada faces an uphill struggle. Late planted crops will have a shortened growing cycle before the first frosts arrive in the autumn. In addition there are yield, disease and quality issues from crops sown under extremely wet conditions.
This is certainly a situation that wants watching closely across the summer months.
Flooding In Saskatchewan, Snow In Calgary And Heatwave In Ottowa
What is going on in Canada at the moment?
Flooding of "historic" proportions in Saskatchewan, Canada's largest wheat producing province, means that only 55% of springs crops were sown as of May 24th, compared with 81% normally at this time of year.
More rain is forecast for the region Thursday, Friday and Saturday. They don't want any more, having just had the wettest April and May on record.
Accompanying the rains have been cooler than normal conditions too, leading to very poor drying conditions, say Martell Crop Projections.
Rosetown East, in the south of the region picked up over eight inches of rain in May, almost 7 inches more than normal for the month.
Meanwhile parts of southern Manitoba saw rainfall totals in excess of 4 inches over the past weekend alone. Farmers in the province now face a race against time to hope that their saturated fields dry out so that they can get their wheat planted before the June 20 deadline for crop insurance passes.
Further west in Alberta some farms in the Calgary area the cold weather brought up to 3.5 inches of snow over the weekend.
Elsewhere in the country Ottawa had a stunning high of 35.8 C, whilst hail stones the size of golf balls reportedly hit London, Ontario.
Read more here: Canada's week of wacky weather
Canadian Planting Intentions
Stats Canada said today that Canadian farmers will plant around 700,000 acres more rapeseed than last year, sowing 16.9 million acres of the stuff.
All wheat area will tumble by more than 1.2 million acres, or 5%, to 23.2 million acres they said.
With barley area also declining by around 200,000 acres, and a 250,000 increase in oat planted area being matched by a similar sized reduction in flaxseed sowings, there seems to be a few more extra "floating acres" around that could also go into rapeseed production this year.
Canadian Wheat Output Seen Declining In 2010/11
Depressed world prices and ample stocks will lead to a reduced acreage this spring, which combined with a return to normal yields, will see Canadian wheat output declining in the coming season to around 24 MMT. That's a 9.4% decrease on the 26.5 MMT produced in 2009/10, say the Canadian Wheat Board.
Barley plantings will also fall by around 5%, although an improvement in yields here should see production maintained, or even improved upon slightly from last season's 9.5 MMT, they say.
Stats Canada Raises Wheat, Barley, Rapeseed Output
Stats Canada have today issued revised estimates for the 2009/10 crop year, increasing production forecasts for wheat, barley and rapeseed.
All wheat production is now seen at 26.515 MMT, nearly 2 MMT up on their last September estimate. Whilst an increase had been widely anticipated, that is a million tonnes more than what was expected, and now falls short of last season's record production of 28.611 MMT by only 7%.
Barley production is seen at 9.517 MMT they say, up from an earlier estimate of 9.164 MMT, and down 19% on last season's 11.781 MMT.
Rapeseed output this season is now pegged at 11.825 MMT, 1.6 MMT up on their previous forecast, although 6% down on last year's 12.642 MMT.
Both the barley and rapeseed numbers are towards the top end of trade estimates which were for 9.16 - 9.60 MMT and 10.50 - 11.80 MT respectively.
Stats Canada Production Estimates
Stats Canada are out today with revised production estimates, pegging all wheat output this season at 24.58 MMT, 14% down on last season's 28.61 MMT and below trade estimates, although a million tonnes up on last month's projections.
Barley production is also below trade estimates at 9.16 MMT, down 22% on last year's 11.78 MMT. Canola output was towards the low end of trade predictions at 10.27 MMT, 19% down on last year's 12.64 MMT.
Canadian Crops Pegged Sharply Lower - AAFC
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) peg 2009 wheat production (excluding durum) at 19.1 MMT, 17.3% down on last year's 23.1 MMT. Yields this season will average 2.48 MT/ha, down 18% on last year's 3.03 MT/ha.
Durum output is projected at 4.5 MT they say. That's 1 MMT, or 18%, down on last year's 5.5 MMT.
Barley production is seen at 8.9 MMT, 25% down on last season's 11.8 MMT. Corn output is forecast at 9.5 MMT, 10% lower than the 10.6 MMt produced last year.
Canola output is forecast to reach 9.5 MMT, 25% down on 12.6 MMT a year ago.
Stats Canada Forecasts Due Today
Stats Canada are due out later this afternoon with their first estimates of the season on Canadian crop production this year. The report is based on a survey conducted at the end of July, it's highly debatable whether things have got better or worse since then.
Sharp production losses are expected across all the grains, with all wheat estimates ranging from 20.10-23.31 MMT compared to last year's Stats Canada number of 28.61 MMT.
Barley production is estimated at 8.75-9.47 MMT, down from 11.781 MMT a year ago, and canola output is seen in a range of 9.50-10.75 MMT, compared to 12.642 MMT last season.
Crop development is widely seen at 2-3 weeks behind schedule, leaving production further under threat later in the growing season. Frost typically arrives on the Canadian Prairies around mid-September.
The report is due out at 14.30 BST this afternoon.
Canadian Crops Vulnerable
Canadian grains and oilseeds are suffering from delayed maturity opening the door for potential freeze damage, whilst canola in Alberta also has suffered from drought, says Gail Martell of Martell Crop Projections.
Frost is the number one concern in Alberta, according to the August 15th crop report, due to cold, dry spring weather that delayed planting. A severe drought was alleviated by heavy rainfall from mid July to mid August, but storms this past week also damaged crops. Drought was so severe to begin with that in some areas, canola seeds did not even germinate until July, says Gail.
Alberta growers claim there is no hope for a normal yield. Farmers rated their spring wheat 22% good-excellent, 45% fair and 33% poor to very poor on the August 13 crop report. Canola conditions were even worse, with 36% of the crop poor to very poor, she adds.
Western Saskatchewan also suffered from drought but rainfall picked up substantially in July leading to favourable growing conditions, and moisture has continued to improve in August. Growers reported that 71% of provincial farms had sufficient field moisture for developing crops. The overriding concern here is that frost may damage immature crops, she says.
Crop development in some areas is 3 weeks behind schedule. Most of the crops are 2 weeks behind normal developmentally. If frost holds off until late September, canola would have a chance to make a good yield, but frost typically arrives September 10-20, says Gail.
Manitoba began the growing season with ample field moisture, thanks to heavy snowmelt, but flooding delayed seeding and cut the area that was intended to be planted in wheat. Summer growing conditions have been favourable, for the most part, but small grains are maturing very slowly due to delayed seeding date and cool June-July weather.
Manitoba small grains were just beginning to turn colour in mid August, as most of the crop was in the heavy dough stage. Growing degree days have been 150-200 units behind normal due to very cool growing season, Gail concludes.
Canadian Wheat Crop Seen 21 Pct Lower
Canadian what production in 2009/10 is seen 21.3% lower at 22.5 MMT, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC). All wheat output was 28.6 MMT in 2008/09.
Barley production will be 8.7 MMT (down 26.3% from 11.8 MMT), corn output 10.2 MMT ( 10.6 MMT), and canola output 10.3 MMT (down 18.3% from 12.6 MMT).
Soybean production will be 3.6 MMT, up from 3.3 MMT in 2008/09, they add.
The wheat figure is a million tonnes below the latest USDA estimate. Production may come in lower than that according to some estimates, who suggest that the current production forecasts are based on a planted area survey conducted in early June.
Then farmers said that they intended to sow 10.3 million acres of wheat this year. Some of that wheat maybe didn't get planted due to extreme dryness in parts of Alberta and western Saskatchewan.
