EU Grains Closing Comments
May London wheat ended Friday unchanged at GBP103.70/tonne, with May Paris wheat EUR0.25 easier at EUR132.00/tonne. June Paris corn was EUR0.25 lower at EUR143.50/tonne and May Paris rapeseed up EUR5.75 at EUR313.00/tonne.
It was a fairly quiet end to a pretty volatile week, as traders seemed happy to square off a few positions ahead of the long weekend.
On the week as a whole May London wheat closed with losses of GBP0.80/tonne, with May Paris wheat EUR1.00/tonne higher. June Paris corn lost EUR1.00/tonne and May Paris rapeseed fell EUR12.00/tonne.
It was a very volatile week for expiring May rapeseed in particular, with prices trading in a EUR30/tonne range over the course of the week.
The highs were set in early trade Monday, but futures fell EUR18/tonne on Tuesday following new of a serious fire at a Bunge-owned rapeseed crushing facility in Mannheim, Germany.
Continued concerns over Greece in particular, but also the rest of the so-called PIIGS is keeping the euro under pressure, which should help support the EU grains sector as a whole.
The pound also remains volatile in the run-up to the election on Thursday.
For the month of April overall May London wheat gained GBP6.90/tonne and May Paris wheat EUR6.75/tonne. June Paris corn gained EUR8.50/tonne and May Paris rapeseed added EUR6.75/tonne.
EU Grain Production/Stocks Estimates
According to Coceral the EU-27 will produce a wheat crop of 137.6 MMT in 2009/10, of which 128.6 MMT will be soft wheat. That's down 8.6% on an all wheat crop of 150.5 MMT in 2008. Yields for soft wheat are forecast at 5.6 MT/ha, 6.7% lower than 6.0 MT/ha in 2008.
Barley production is seen at 59.7 MMT, that's 9% down on last season's 65.6 MMT.
Corn production is pegged at 56.1 MMT, 7% lower than the 60.5 MMT produced in 2008.
Overall the total EU-27 cereal crop will be 285.3 MMT, 8% down from the 310.2 MMT produced last season.
Coceral Increases EU 08-09 Grain Crop
As the size of the EU-27 2008 corn harvest has finally become clearer, Coceral have increased their estimate for final 2008/09 EU grain production to 310.6 million metric tonnes, from the September estimate of 306.2 million tonnes.
The 2008 EU-27 corn crop is now estimated at 60.8 million tonnes, up from September's figure of 57.7 million tonnes and up a whopping 49% on the year.
Soft wheat production was tweaked up slightly to to 141.1 million tonnes, from September's forecast of 140.7 million tonnes, up 26% on the year.
Strategie Grains Sees Only Minimal Loss Of Grain Acres For 2009 Crop
Strategie Grains says that despite sharply lower prices, EU grain planted area for 2009 will decrease by just 2% to 1.07m hectares.
Some of last seasons set-aside acres will be returned to set-aside or planted with oilseeds or sugar beet, they say in a report.
Final EU-27 2008 production numbers have been refined higher than last months estimates with soft wheat production now seen at 140.1mmt, up from last months estimate of 139.5mmt. Barley production has also been revised higher this month to 65.8mmt, up 800,000mt and corn output is also seen higher at 61.0mmt, up 600,000mt.
Europe Busy Harvesting Bumper Corn Crop
EU country's are busy harvesting a bumper corn crop in 2008. Government forecasts put Germany's maize crop this autumn at 4.9 million tonnes, up from 3.7 million tonnes last season.
Harvesting is now in full swing in much of the country and is expected to be completed around the end of October, analysts said.
Government figures say Germany's harvest of grains of all types this summer has risen by around nine million tonnes on the year to 49.9 million tonnes.
The French harvest is nearing completion and output there is anticipated top be around 15.1 million tonnes, compared to 14.5 million tonnes in 2007.
Meanwhile, EU-27 estimates put the bloc's maize crop this year at around 60.2 million tonnes, dramatically up from last year's 48.2 million tonnes following better weather.
Hungary, Austria, Romania and Bulgaria all also seem to have excellent crops and are aggressively looking to export. Hungary's crop is forecast to produce 8.7 million tonnes, up from 4.7 million tonnes last year.
EU corn prices could even reach intervention levels of around 100 euros a tonne, traders said.
This is likely to mean a sharp cut in maize imports from Brazil in coming months.
Brazil and the U.S. together sold 20.1 million tonnes of corn and sorghum to the EU in 2007/08, up from only 6.2 million tonnes the previous season as EU farmers and animal feed makers turned to imports after Europe's poor 2007 grains crop raised domestic prices.
Toepfer increase EU grain output estimate 6.7MMT
EU-27 2008/09 grain output is now seen at 296.7mmt according to Toepfer, up 6.7mmt from it's July estimate, and a 16% increase on 2007/08.
Despite crop size "some concessions will have to be made regarding quality," said Toepfer, noting lower pretein and hagberg levels.
Toepfer meanwhile estimated EU-27 2008-09 oilseed production at 26.4mmt, up 10% from last season and up 1mmt from the July forecast of 25.4mmt.
Strategie Grains Ups EU Grain Crop 4MMT
Strategie Grains has increased it's estimate for the 2008 EU grain crop to 299.7MMT, up 4MMT from last month's estimate of 295.7MMT.
They have now increased the crop 8.7MT in the last two months.
Wheat production is revised up 2.2MMt to 133.9MMT although they note that recent rains could have a negative impact on quality.
Corn production is revised up 1.1MMT to 59.7MMT.
US Attache Pegs 2008 EU-27 Grain Crop 294MMT
The U.S. ag attache in the European Union says improved prospects for the EU harvest mean total grain production there is currently expected to reach 294 MMT this summer. Within this total, wheat production is put at 142 MMT, barley at 62 MMT and corn at 57.4 MMT, all increased tonnages as compared to expectations two months ago.
"May and June have seen dry conditions in north Europe being more than offset by favorable growing conditions in both the south east and west. However, as was demonstrated last year, these changes remain subject to further revision pending weather conditions over the critical coming weeks," says the attache.
Total grain production of 294MMT is 39MMT up on 2007's 255MMT.
Wheat at 142MMT is 23MMT up on last seaon's 119MMT, barley shows an increase of 4MMT on 2007, and corn 10MMT more than a year ago.
Strategie Grains sees 2008/09 EU grain output up 33.8MMT
Strategie Grains is forecasting 2008/09 EU27 grain production at 289mmt, up 33.8mmt from 2007/08's 255.2mmt.
Soft wheat output is seen at 128.5mmt, 15% up on last season's 111.6mmt.
An even bigger percentage increase comes in corn production which is seen 22% up in the coming season at 57.3mmt.
Barley production is seen at 61.5mmt, a 7% increase on 2008/08.
