France
14/03/12 -- FranceAgriMer have released their latest revised 2011/12 production and stocks estimates today. Last year's soft wheat crop is tweaked down slightly from last month to 33.9 MMT, a 5.1% reduction on the 2010 harvest. Ending stocks are seen virtually unchanged from last month at 2.4 MMT, 17.8% lower than at the end of last season.
Corn production in 2011 has been revised up slightly to 15.5 MMT, which represents a 12.3% increase on output in 2010. Exports for the current season have been revised down this month to 6.7 MMT, bringing ending stocks up from the 1.9 MMT estimated last month to 2.2 MMT.
Barley output is virtually unchanged from last month at 8.8 MMT, 13.3% lower tnan in 2010, but lower exports see ending stocks rise to 1.1 MMT.
French/German Harvest Latest
Joachim Ruhmann of DLR reports that early harvesting results from southern France remain disappointing. Barley yields are coming in 5-15% below last year with specific weights "not outstanding" - in the region of 62-64kg/hl, he says.
Early data from the harvesting south of Chartres and the Loire have been hit by the cold winter and the heat of the past few weeks, says Joachim. After interruptions to the harvest caused by weekend rains and thunderstorms, farmers' activity has resumed with harvesting already estimated at around a third complete in the southwest of the country, he adds.
Indications are that wheat and rapeseed yields will also be hit, coming in below last season's levels, he concludes.
Meanwhile in Germany early harvesting results are more promising, says Joachim. Winter barley yields and specific weights are quite varied, with averages of around 65kg/hl. The colour of this season's barley is a surprise, says Joachim, describing it as "very bright, almost white".
Yields are also fluctuating quite widely, but overall will probably average lower than last season, he says.
Some of the forward parts of the Rhineland could see the barley harvest be almost completed by the end of the week, whereas in Munsterland to the west the crop is around 10 days behind normal development, despite the recent hot weather, says Joachim.
New crop barley prices ex farm Rhineland yesterday were around EUR105-109/tonne ex farm, he adds.
French Truckers And Milk Producers Threaten Strike Action
We all know that the French love a good strike, almost as much as their fondness for illegally handling the ball. Well it seems that they fancy a bit of time off over Christmas so their truckers' five main unions are threatening an indefinite walkout starting this weekend, unless employers organisations agree to increased pay demands.
The unhappy dairy sector have now decided that they might like to join forces with the truckers. So French milk producers are suggesting that they might also strike (again) in an effort to cause maximum disruption over the festive period.
If you're planning whisking your nearest & dearest off to Gay Paris for a romantic spot of Christmas sightseeing, you might also like to think again. Museums, theatres, libraries and other major landmarks have all hit by workers striking over staff cuts too.
The Musée d'Orsay, the Arc de Triomphe, Notre Dame, the Louvre, the Château de Versailles and the Pompidou Centre all had to close their doors to the public last week.
French Nov 1st Grain Stocks Up Almost 25 Pct
Commercial French grain stocks on Nov 1st were up almost 25% on year ago levels to 25.6 MMT (from 18.6 MMT), according to government data.
Sort wheat stocks were 11.2 MMT (2008: 9.8 MMT), barley stocks 6.8 MMT (4.9 MMT) and corn stocks 5.9 MMT (2.6 MMT).
The figures also show that France exported 3.9 MMT of wheat (excluding durum) in the first three months of marketing year 2009/10 (July/June), down 5% compared to 4.1 MMT exported in the same period of the previous season. Of that total 1.6 MMT (1.8 MMT) went to other EU countries and 2.3 MMT (2.4 MMT) were exported outside the EU.
Barley exports were 1.2 MMT (2008: 1.3 MMT), almost all of which went inside the EU. Corn exports came in at 1.7 MMT (1.2 MMT), of which 1.6 MMT went inside the EU.
The top French wheat export home was Italy at 357,000 MT, Belgium took the most barley at 321,000 MT and Spain took the most corn at 564,000 MT. Corn exports to the UK were up sharply in the period to 113,000 MT fro 75,000 MT in 2008.
French Wheat Crop 38.66 MMT - FranceAgrimer
The French 2009/10 all wheat crop is 38.66 MMT, according to FranceAgrimer, a decrease of 1.4% on last season's 39.21 MMT. Soft wheat production is 36.55 MMT and durum wheat output 2.11 MMT, they say.
Soft wheat exports this season will total 7.09 MMT (2008/09 6.76 MMT) to fellow EU-27 destinations, and 8.75 MMT (9.59 MMT) to homes outside the EU-27 they add.
That will leave ending stocks of 3.58 MMT, up from 3.1 MMT at the end of 2008/09
Corn production this season is now seen 5.5% lower at 14.81 MMT and barley output is said to be 5% higher at 12.91 MMT.
Barley ending stocks will rise dramatically from 1.58 MMT in 2008/09 to 3.36 MMT in 2009/10 they say. Corn ending stocks will fall from 2.34 MMT to 1.91 MMT, they add.
French Crop Estimates
FranceAgriMer (formerly ONIGC) say that this season's French soft wheat crop will come in at 35.8 MMT, down 3.2% on last season's 37 MMT. Durum wheat production will be 2.0 MMT this season, down from 2.2 MMT last year, they say.
Barley output will be 12.2 MMT (from 12.3 MMT last year), triticale 1.9 MMT (unchanged), oats 470,000 (also unchanged) and rye 120,000 MT (from 130,000 MT).
For the 2008/09 old crop marketing year they say that domestic wheat usage will be 14.9 MMT (14.2 MMT in 2007/08), exports 15.1 MMT (12.2 MMT) and ending stocks 2.8 MMT (2.7 MMT).
French Farmers Blockade Retail Warehouses
You can say what you like about the French, and I frequently do, but they do know how to organise a good protest.
Around 7,000 French farmers blockaded around two-thirds of France's 60 main retail distribution warehouses that supply French supermarkets on Friday and Saturday, in protest to the margins being made on basics such as milk and meat.
Of course they probably all ran away when the German manager came out to shout at them, but that's not the point.
Now why can't we come up with something like that over here?
French Grain Exports Up Sharply, Stocks Down
Despite all the media doom and gloom, and reports of how the EU is continuing to miss export business to the Black Sea, French grain exports are up sharply. Not only that but stocks are actually down on year ago levels.
France has exported 9.6 MMT of soft wheat in the first seven months of the 2008/09 marketing year, and increase of 45% on the 6.6 MMT exported at the same point a year ago, according to official government figures.
Of this quantity 3.8 MMT (4.3) went to other EU countries, including Netherlands 919,000 MT (1.3), to Belgium 759,000 MT (799,000), to Italy 878,000 MT (903,000), to Spain 521,000 MT (407,000), to Portugal 333,000 MT (367,000) and to Germany 179,000 MT (249,000). Exports to third countries increased sharply by more than 150% to 5.8 MMT from 2.3 MMT.
Barley export were up 20% to 3.0 MMT and corn exports 50% higher at 3.6 MMT.
Out of interest, French corn exports to the UK were lower year-on-year at 272,000 MT from 337,000 MT in 2007/08.
Despite last seasons bumper harvest, the pace of exports means that grain inventories are actually a little lower than year ago levels.
ONIGC reports that commercial grain stocks in France amounted to 14.7 MMT as of March 1, 2009 which is below the 15.0 MMT recorded at the same time of last year. Wheat stocks (excluding durum) stood at 6.0 MMT (6.9), barley stocks at 3.4 MMT (2.6), corn at 4.6 MMT (4.7), and durum wheat at 361,000 MT (534,000).
French Wheat Area Lowered
The French agriculture ministry (Agreste) has released its second forecast for the French soft winter wheat acreage for the 2009/10 crop.
It reduced it's acreage estimate to 4.96 mln ha from it's December forecast of 5.03 mln ha, and the 5.06 mln ha planted last season.
That's a decrease of 2%, allowing for an anticipated small reduction in yield this will probably see this season's soft wheat crop in Europe's biggest producer at around 36mmt.
