Nogger's Blog

The USDA Numbers

30/06/11 -- The USDA numbers are out and no surprises for guessing that they've thrown in a curved ball or two again this afternoon. The corn market has moved limit or near limit on each of the past three years on the day of this report, and it looks like it may do the same again today with corn plantings pegged at 92.3 millin acres, 1.6 million up on their previous forecast and 0.8 million higher than even the highest trade estimate.

For good measure June 1st corn ending stocks were higher than anticipated at 3.67 billion bushels, which again was higher than even the highest trade estimate.

Here's the numbers, Plantings:

June 1st Stocks:

The Magic Numbers

Here's today's all important scores on the doors from our old inept buddies, the USDA:

June Acreage (million acres):
             USDA Jun   Avg Est     Range      Mar USDA     2009
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Soybeans      78.868    78.183   76.528-78.900   78.100   77.500
Corn          87.872    89.229   88.100-90.153   88.800   86.500
All wheat     54.305    53.825   53.500-54.087   53.800   59.133
-----------------------------------------------------------------
June 1st Stocks (billion bushels):
Soybeans       0.571      0.594    0.580-0.620    1.270    0.596
Corn           4.310      4.598    4.459-4.784    7.694    4.261
Wheat          0.973      0.940    0.929-0.950    1.352    0.657
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Miss Tibbs appears to have thrown her darts a bit on the low side when it comes to those corn acres, almost one and a half million below the average trade guess and almost a quarter of a million beneath the lowest trade estimate.

Bean acres came in right at the top end of trade estimates, whilst wheat acres came in half a million higher than anticipated, and above the upper estimate.

At least the shortfall in corn is balanced by the increases in beans and wheat, so the numbers do still "add up", unlike last season when the June numbers were all uniformly higher than anticipated across the board.

Old crop bean and corn stocks are a bit lower than the average trade guess. That doesn't surprise me too much given the pace of exports of late.

What the bare figures above don't show either is the harvested acres estimates, for corn these are 81.005 million, a hefty 6.8 million below the planted area. Whereas for beans the estimated harvested area is less than a million acres below that planted at 77.986 million.

Check out oats too: planted 3.176 million (the lowest on record), harvested 1.315 million.

Early calls are all over the place, but corn likley to lead the way higher, some are saying 20-30 up on corn, 10-15 up on beans, 5-10 up on wheat. I'll forecast 15-20 up on corn, 5 up on beans and flat to 2 lower wheat.

USDA: The Trade Awaits

Here we go again then, the global grain trade hanging on the word of a bunch of buffoons with a Spectrum ZX and some coloured pencils. No sharpeners of course, they aren't allowed sharpeners in there.

The general concensus is that the early start to plantings this spring will have led to a bit more corn going in than was anticipated back in March. Soybean and wheat area is seen broadly little changed.

You will note though that we have roughly a 2 million acre spead between the range of guesses for both beans and corn, that does leave room for a bit of a surprise for one or the other.

You may recall it was surprises all round last June when the USDA found a million more wheat acres, one and a half million more soybean acres AND two million more corn acres than they had in March. No losses just gains all round.

Last year the corn number was the biggest surprise of all, coming in a million acres higher than the highest trade estimate, and two and a half million above the average trade guess.

Here's a note of what is expected from them on Wednesday:

June Acreage (million acres):
             Avg Est      Range       Mar USDA     2009
--------------------------------------------------------
Soybeans      78.183   76.528-78.900    78.100    77.500
Corn          89.229   88.100-90.153    88.800    86.500
All wheat     53.825   53.500-54.087    53.800    59.133
--------------------------------------------------------
June 1st Stocks (billion bushels):
Soybeans       0.594    0.580-0.620      1.270     0.596
Corn           4.598    4.459-4.784      7.694     4.261
Wheat          0.940    0.929-0.950      1.352     0.657
--------------------------------------------------------

However, bearing in mind what happened last year, anything is possible. Here's an exclusive picture taken from inside USDA HQ as their analysts put the finishing touches to their estimates over the weekend:

USDA Acreage Report: Well We Expected A Surprise

We certainly got one. Hot off the press, here are the magic numbers:

  
            June USDA  Avg Trade    Range      Mar USDA    2008
----------------------------------------------------------------- 
Corn         87.035     84.158  82.474-86.000   84.986    85.982 
 
Soybeans     77.483     78.305  75.300-79.631   76.024    75.718 
 
Spring Wheat 13.772     13.102  12.826-13.404   13.304    14.135 
 
All Wheat    59.775     58.337  57.600-58.800   58.638    63.147

Whooooa there, where the hell did all those extra corn acres come from? Three million more than the average trade guess and an increase of two million on the March estimate, are you twisting my melons?

The bean acres, not a problem, 77 1/2 million, fine I can buy that. Spring wheat more acres than March? All wheat a million more acres than March, and a million over the highest trade estimate?

Who compiled these Bernie Madoff?

USDA June Acreage Snapshot

Today's revised acreage estimates from the USDA peg 2008 corn acreage at 87.327m, up from March's est of 86.014m and well above the average trade estimate of 85.676m, and only just short of the highest trade estimate of 87.399m.

Soybean acreage is seen at 74.533m acres, slightly lower than March's 74.793m, but a slightly above the average trade estimate of 74.360m acres.

All wheat acreage is seen at 63.457m, slightly below March's figure of 63.803 and the average trade estimate of 63.818m.