EU Soymeal/Pellets Prices
Guide prices basis CIF Rotterdam/Amsterdam unless otherwise stated in USD/tonne:
Brazil pellets 48%
Afloat 432,00
Jan 432,00
Jan/March 419,00
May/Sep 360,00
Argentine pellets 44/45%
Afloat 425,00
Jan/March 417.00
May/Sep 353.00
Dutch Hipro 49% profat
Jan 449,00 FOB
Feb 446,00 FOB
March 439,00 FOB
Apr 420,00 FOB
May/Jul 378,00 FOB
May/Oct 378,00 FOB
Argentine Hipro 49% profat
Afloat 437,00
Dec 437,00
Jan 437,00
Feb 430,00
March 418,00
May/Sep 368,00
Twelve Months Ago Today
Crude oil was USD47/barrel as Israeli troops entered the Gaza Strip. The pound was around 1.45 against the dollar and 1.06 against the euro. Arla and First Milk announced the first of many 2009 producer price cuts. Spot CBOT corn was at USD4.11 1/4; Spot soybeans were worth USD9.83 3/4; Spot CBOT wheat was USD6.16 3/4. Paris March milling wheat was at EUR143.00/tonne, whilst London May feed wheat was worth GBP111.75/tonne.
EU Rapemeal Prices
Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/tonne:
Jan 156,00
Feb 149,00
Mch/Apr 142,00
May/1st h Jly 126,00
Aug/Oct 10 120,00
Nov/Jan 11 127,00
Nov/Apr 11 128,00
Entire Northen Hemisphere Gripped By Cold
It's brass monkey weather here in North Yorkshire today, but it seems like the whole of the northern hemisphere is being gripped by the same. Media reports suggest that at least 33 and possibly more than 100 people died in India over the weekend, many freezing to death in Uttar Pradesh.
Further east, Beijing received its heaviest daily snowfall in nearly six decades over the weekend, the state Xinhua news agency reports. In the South Korean capital of Seoul, around 26 centimetres (10 inches) of snow fell today, the biggest snowfall since record-keeping began in 1937.
In the US, the mercury is well below zero even as far south as Florida, where temperatures are seen falling as low as 20 F overnight. The Central Plains are set to see their coldest air since February '96 by mid-week. That may provide a threat to winter wheat where snow cover is lacking.
Here in the UK, a bitterly cold week lies ahead, according to Metcheck.com, with temperatures barely rising above freezing for most areas this week, and falling well below at night with some severe frosts expected.
And it doesn't seem like things are a whole lot warmer across much of the rest of Europe either:
Crude Oil Breaks Through USD80/Barrel
Crude oil has broken through USD80/barrel in early trade this morning on talk that Russia has, or is about to, cut supplies to Belarus. Apparently an agreement between the two parties for Russia to supply Belarus with crude oil at heavily discounted prices expired on New Year's Eve.
You'd be forgiven for getting deja vu at this point, as the pipelines through Belarus also supply more lucrative markets in the West. Sound familiar?
Hopes that a gradual US economic recovery in 2010 will boost demand for black gold, is also adding a bit of positive influence this morning, as too is the carryover impetus from last year. Front month crude posted a 78% gain year-on-year in 2009, its best performance since 1999.
However, Bloomberg reported recently that almost 6% of the world's supertanker fleet is sitting on the high seas with crude oil onboard with nowhere in particular to go. However, the huge price differentials that we saw in early in 2009 between spot and forward months that made this option attractive, appear to have been eroded significantly recently.
The spread between the first and sixth Brent crude-oil contract on 31/12/08 was 23%, today it is 3%. I can't see that a 3% return over six months will cover your ship rental, insurance and finance.
Storing oil at sea clearly isn't the lucrative money-making proposition it was at the height of the financial crisis. If I had crude sitting on a tanker somewhere in the North Sea right now, I'd be looking to take advantage of a nearby price spike and offload.
That's the fundamentals of the matter, but then again when did they have anything to do with things?
Price League Table 2009
Doing a bit of research over the festive period, for one of my in depth market reports that I do for someone, here's a price movement league table for 2009 that might interest you:
Market Month 2009 Close Change On Year
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Crude Oil Feb10 79.36 +49.7%
STG/USD Spot 1.6184 +10.9%
Paris Rapeseed Feb10 287.50 +9.4%
STG/EUR Spot 1.1206 +7.4%
CBOT Soybeans Jan10 1039.75 +5.5%
EUR/USD Spot 1.4287 +2.3%
Paris Corn Jan10 135.00 +1.5%
Paris Wheat Jan10 131.25 -7.7%
CBOT Wheat Mar10 541.50 -9.6%
London Wheat Jan10 106.50 -11.3%
CBOT Corn Mar10 414.50 -11.4%
Footnote: apart from currencies, these changes are comparing the price of the individual futures months mentioned. If you were to compare front month crude oil on 31/12/08 with front month on 31/12/09 the change is even more impressive at +78%!
I guess it's no great surprise to see London wheat languishing down in the relegation zone, given the strength of sterling (or is it the acute weakness of the dollar/euro) up the top.
CBOT corn being the worst peformer of the lot is maybe a little surprising though.
Incidentally, if we were to run the same league table for forward months (ie Nov/Dec10 as appropriate) the worst performer over the 12 months is....CBOT wheat, where the Dec future has declined 14.4% over the course of 2009.
CBOT Closing Comments
Soybeans
January soybean futures closed at USD10.39 ¾, up 3 ½ cents, January soymeal futures at USD313.90, down 2.30 points, January soy oil futures at 40.35 cents, up 0.86 points. Beans closed well off the daily highs on end of year profit-taking. Export sales were respectable at 799,000 MT for 2009/10 delivery and 276,000 MT for 2010/11. China took 430,500 MT of soybeans for 2009/10 delivery and 101,000 MT for 2010/11 delivery.
Corn
March corn futures closed at USD4.14 ½, up ¾ cent, with May at USD4.24 ¼, up ¾ cent. Weekly export sales were 772,500 MT and shipments were 863,600 MT. Analysts estimate that 50-100 million bushels of corn might be lost in unharvested acres across the winter. The USDA will issue a revised production estimate on January 12th.
Wheat
March CBOT wheat futures closed at USD5.41 ½, down 3 ¼ cents, March KCBT wheat futures at USD5.36 ¼, down 4 ¼ cents, and March MGEX wheat futures at USD5.45, down 6 ¼ cents. Export sales were 370,266 MT for 2009/10 delivery and shipments were 294,063 MT. Egypt bought 240,000 MT of Russian wheat for March shipment at levels significantly lower than US offers.
EU Wheat Closing Comments
EU wheat futures closed the last trading session of the year with March Paris milling wheat futures down EUR0.50 at EUR133.25/tonne and London May feed wheat futures closing up GBP0.35, at GBP112.25/tonne.
As might be expected it was a fairly quiet session with little more than 1,000 lots traded in Paris all day. London saw a bit more activity than other days this week, with 293 lots traded in what can only be attributed to year-end book squaring.
Egypt was back in the market again, booking four 60,000 MT cargoes of Russian wheat for March shipment, two priced at USD191.88/tonne and two at USD191.47/tonne.
These bids comfortably beat the cheapest one load port French wheat offered, which was at USD194.39/tonne.
Interestingly, French wheat basis a two load port option was offered by Soufflet at a USD6.20 discount and by Invivo at a USD3.40 discount to their one load port prices. For the time being at least, Egypt are sticking by their newly introduced rule of a minimum 60,000 MT strictly one port of loading.
For the record, November London wheat closed the day at GBP114.20/tonne, GBP7.30 down on the year. The high for the year was GBP135.00/tonne (set in January), and the low GBP105.20/tonne (September), giving a GBP29.80/tonne trading range.
Paris November wheat ended at EUR142.50/tonne, EUR8.00 lower than when the contract was introduced in March, having had a trading range of EUR36.50/tonne across the remainder of 2009. The years high was EUR170/tonne set in June, and the years low EUR133.50 set in September.
