CBOT Closing Comments
Soybeans
August soybeans closed at USD10.11 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents; November soybeans closed at USD9.73, up 1 cent; August soybean meal closed at USD301.50, down USD3.50; August soybean oil closed at 38.40, up 44 points. Supportive factors were the USDA announcing a sale of 115,500 MT of soybeans for 2010/11 delivery to China. Crude oil was a bit higher and the dollar a wee bit lower, which also helped.
Corn
September corn closed at USD3.74, down 7 1/2 cents; Dec corn closed at USD3.87 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents. Rain forecasts for the most of the eastern Corn Belt and portions of the Midwest are looking for up to nearly 5 inches of rain over the next five days. Above normal heat is also forecast to continue up until August 2nd. A strong dollar and weak crude also weighed.
Wheat
September CBOT wheat closed at USD5.77, down 5 1/4 cents; September KCBT wheat closed at USD5.89 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; September MGEX wheat closed at USD6.01 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents. Despite ongoing concerns over this year's Russian grain harvest, they still managed to undercut US and EU Wheat in today's Egyptian tender.
EU Wheat Closing Comments
It was another yo-yo day for EU wheat, with Nov London wheat finally ending down GBP1.30 at GBP125.45/tonne, Nov Paris wheat closing unch at EUR1678/tonne.
A very interesting day, with futures opening sharply lower, then briefly rallying into slightly positive territory, before ultimately closing flat to slightly lower.
Spec funds are the buyers, end users don't want to touch these prices with a very long barge pole.
Farmers are busy harvesting, and hoping that this is just the start of a 2007/08-style boom. Prices always rally just as the harvest gets underway, we all know that!
Heavy rain across northern parts of England will do little to aid harvest progress. Those in the south that have managed to do some cutting will no doubt be feeling pretty smug.
Egypt bought Russian wheat again in it's regular tender. Let them keep mopping up the few remaining parcels of cheap wheat in the region I say.
Interesting Maps Of The Russian Situation
Painstakingly complied by yours truly: I'm too good to you I really am
Here's an interesting development, the Russian State Statistics Service say that 2010 grain plantings were 43.6 million hectares. That's around 4-5 million below last year and the current estimate of 48 million from the Russian Grain Union.
I see that Egypt have bought 120,000 MT of Russian wheat today, just before the shop shuts, paying USD211-212.45/tonne. That's almost USD30 up on their previous purchase and almost USD50 over what they paid in the tender before that at the end of June.
They really are the Milwall of the grain trade those lads aren't they?
Bits And Pieces
Ukraine has turned from hot and wet to just hot (38C hot). That should help harvest progress get up to speed, although reports now suggest that what's left of the barley is in urgent need of harvesting before it goes over the top - yet growers are being tempted to get in amongst the rapeseed which is also now ready. A shortage of equipment is the problem. Heavy rains in Crimea have caused losses to winter grains four times higher than a year ago, according to the local Department of Statistics.
Excessive heat and lack of rainfall means that the German wheat crop will fall below 24 MMT, according to the local grain association DBV. The barley harvest hasn't been too bad yet, but lower yields are expected as the harvest concludes onto lighter soils in the north of the country this week, they add.
The wheat harvest is underway in northern France now, with results so far seemingly "not as bad as feared" although things aren't up to where they were 12 months ago.
In Russia it's still hot and dry. Another round of crop production cuts might be on the cards again this week with the weather forecast to stay largely unchanged for the next ten days.
It's all gone quiet in Kazakhstan, with "Stan" remaining frustratingly uncontactable. Based on weather maps I am looking at, things don't look very promising over there at all.
Get this, the Baltic Dry Index was up again last night, that's two days on the trot. It was only up 12 points mind.
CBOT Closing Comments
Soybeans
Aug CBOT soybeans fell 11 1/2 cents to USD10.08 per bushel; Nov soybeans slumped 13 cents to USD9.72; August soybean meal closed at USD305, down USD2.80; August soybean oil closed at 37.96, down 35 points. Profit taking after last week's sharp rally was seen. Soybean export inspections came in at 6.85 MMT, a bit on the low side. The USDA pegged soybean blooming 20 points higher than last week and ahead of average. They also said that 18% of the crop is setting pods, ahead of the 15% average pace. Good/excellent crop conditions rose 2 points to 67%.
Corn
Sep corn ended down 13 1/4 cents at USD3.81 1/2 per bushel; Dec corn closed down 13 1/4 cents at USD3.94. Rains over the weekend and forecasts of more to come got corn off on the defensive. A correction from last week's gains was also likely behind today's move lower. Corn export inspections came in at 38.91 MMT, slightly above last week. The USDA pegged silking up 27 points from last week. Corn dropped a point in condition, to 72% good/excellent, which was below average analyst estimates but still ahead of last year's 71%.
Wheat
Sep CBOT wheat closed down 5 cents at USD5.82 1/4 per bushel; Sep KCBT wheat ended down 3 3/4 cents at USD5.95 1/4; Sep MGE wheat closed down 8 1/4 cents at USD6.03 1/4. Wheat export inspections came in at 22.45 MMT, well above last week by almost 8 MMT. The US winter wheat harvested was up 8 points from last week but slightly behind average. Spring wheat heading was up 15 points from last week, but also behind average. Spring wheat conditions were down a point to 82% good/excellent. Drought in Russia continues to underpin.
I Actually Feel Quite Sorry For Egypt Really
Nah, I don't, I'm only messing. Please, please, please let nobody put a bid in for their latest wheat tender. Not a single one. Come on, I'll beg if I have to, but I'm not doing that other stuff again, with the Mars Bar. Oh go on then, but this IS definitely the last time.
Here's my headline and I want it now:
Stick it Nomani. Egypt gets no bids in this week's wheat tender.
Do it, if not for me, for the kids.
EU Grains Closing Comments
November London wheat closed GBP2.25 lower at GBP126.75/tonne; November Paris wheat ended with losses of EUR4.50 at EUR168/tonne.
Paris corn and rapeseed were also sharply lower, although malting barley managed to post modest gains.
Reports from the Continent suggest that the barley harvest is already starting to wind down in some places, with yields generally not as good as last year and just "average" to slightly disappointing overall.
The grain harvest in Ukraine remains well behind schedule at just over 8 MMT compared with 11.5 MMT a year ago. Wheat yields are averaging 2.7 MT/ha, with barley yields coming in at 2.25 MT/ha.
It was another very hot and largely dry weekend in Russia, where the harvest is already well advanced and yields very disappointing. After two years of bumper grain harvests - 108 MMT in 2008 and 97 MMT in 2009 - output is set to be lower than consumption this year.
Quite heavy rain is forecast for the west and north east of England tomorrow, although the breadbasket south east should escape the showers, with temperatures rising as high as 29C.
Egypt are rumoured to be in the market tendering for wheat again this week, they could be in for quite a shock compared to the prices they have been paying of late. At least the freight market has gone in their favour.
Iraq bought 350,000 MT of Romanian, Australian, Canadian, Russian and US wheat over the weekend.
German Harvest Latest
My man Joachim in Germany, reports that early rapeseed yields are coming in at around 3.5-4.0 MT/ha this year. That's some 10-20% down on last season, although as Joachim points out last year was an exceptional year for yields.
He expects better results from rapeseed grown on heavier soils. Oil levels are currently coming in at around 41-43%, with moisture as low as 6%, reflecting the very dry finish to the season.
In the Rhine Valley the first wheats are also being harvested. Yields are coming in at 7-8 MT/ha, a good result for the area, although protein levels are surprisingly low, Joachim says.
The barley harvest in East Germany is virtually complete, and has produced surprisingly good bushel weights. In the Brandenburg region 65-69kg/hl is common, he adds. Ex farm prices off the combine here are around EUR101-102.50/tonne, with EUR110 available for September collection, he says.
