Nogger's Blog

Chicago Close

18/10/10 -- Soybeans

Nov soybeans closed at USD11.84, down 1 cent; Dec soybean meal closed at USD328.30, up USD0.10; Dec soybean oil closed at 47.66, down 11 points. Weekly export inspections were very strong at 59.384 MMT. the USDA’s crop progress report showed 83% soybeans harvested, ahead of estimates and 54 points ahead of last year. China bought 120,000 MT of US beans overnight. Brazil's top soybean state of Mato Grosso is just 7% planted as of Thursday.

Corn

Dec corn closed at USD5.57 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Mar corn closed at USD5.69 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents. Corn closed lower for the fourth day in a row. Weekly export inspections as reported by the USDA for were a little low at 28.17 MMT. The USDA’s crop progress report showed corn harvested at 68%, in line with estimates and 52 points ahead of last year. Crude oil traded both sides but settled lower at the end of the day.

Wheat

Dec CBOT wheat closed at USD6.90, down 14 1/2 cents; Dec KCBT wheat closed at USD7.32, down 13 cents; Dec MGEX wheat closed at USD7.44 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents. Weekly export inspections were 20.798 MMT, slightly down on last week and a bit below what was expected. the USDA’s crop progress report showed winter wheat planted at 80%, up 10%. Emerged showed 51%, up 13 points from last week. Forecast rains for late this week and next in the southern Plains will aid US winter wheat development.

EU Wheat Close

18/10/10 -- EU wheat futures opened higher but closed mostly lower after CBOT wheat fell in afternoon trade. Nov London wheat closed GBP1.50 lower at GBP161/tonne, with Nov Paris wheat down EUR1.00 at EUR213.75/tonne.

Volume was low as end-user buying remains muted as spec longs look to unwind their length on nearby November before it expires in a few weeks.

Ukraine finally agreed on the size of it's export quotas, which are pretty minimalistic at 2 MMT of corn, 0.5 MMT of wheat and 0.2 MMT of barley, valid until the end of the year.

Western Australia's wheat crop will struggle to make even 3.5 MMT this year, according to various media reports. Last season it was 8.25 MMT. Whilst drought is the problem there, eastern Australia is having it too wet. That hasn't been a problem up until now, although some reports are just starting to suggest that these heavy rains are now causing disease and potential yield & quality issues.

With the quality of Canada's wheat crop also badly affected by too much rain, this could further tighten supplies at the top end of the market.

Russian farmers have manged to sow around 15 million hectares of winter grains, 19% down on last season's total but better than many had expected after decent rains finally arrived in drought-stricken areas recently.

Big Week For The Pound

18/10/10 -- Or should that be a big weak for the pound? New Chancellor George Osborne gets the unenviable task of outlining exactly what spending cuts are in store to tackle our record GBP156 billion budget deficit on Wednesday.

It could be a case of be damned if you do, or be damned if you don't for Georgie boy.

If he hits us with a full in the face raft of austerity measures then the pound could come under some pressure.

On the other hand any delay in tackling the thorny problem, and not introducing enough spending cuts, could also be viewed as dragging the recession on for longer, which could also undermine sterling.

Early Call On CBOT

18/10/10 -- The overnight grains ended a relatively subdued session with little change. Wheat finished 1/4c higher to 3 1/2c lower, beans were down 2c to up 3 1/4c and corn closed mostly around 2-3c easier.

Neither the dollar nor crude oil are providing much direction either, although both are a bit firmer.

China bought 120,000 MT of US beans overnight, with reports that more sales on the way entirely plausible.

The delayed arrival of rains in Brazil's top soybean state of Mato Grosso means that soybean planting are just 7% done as of Thursday, well behind the 22% pace of last year.

Western Australia's wheat crop will struggle to make even 3.5 MMT this year, according to various media reports. Last season it was 8.25 MMT.

Ukraine's government have finally settled on modest grain export quotas for the remainder of 2010.

Forecast rains for late this week and next in the southern Plains will aid US winter wheat development.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 2-3c; beans down 1-3c; wheat mixed.

Above Us Only Sky

18/10/10 -- There was a news report out over the weekend that a John Lennon statue at Liverpool Airport engraved "Above us only sky" had had "below us only Wolves and West Ham" added to it by some wag.

They'll need to change that to just West Ham now.

Ukraine Latest

18/10/10 -- The Ukraine Grain Association say that, export quotas or not, customs officials are still effectively blocking grain exports entirely.

The government have finally agreed on the size of export quotas, settling at 2 MMT of corn, 0.5 MMT of wheat and 0.2 MMT of barley, valid until the end of the year.

The customs service completely deny that exports are being held up, and say that they are simply looking for a pen.

Of course once they are back in the market as sellers again, next season or whenever, all this will affect their stature as a "pukka" supplier. That said, they weren't exactly flavour of the month prior to all this where they? Even Egypt refused to take their name.

So what will they do then? That's right drop their prices until they get to a level where someone can't say no. Again.

EU Rapeseed Meal Prices

What A Week

18/10/10 -- Spent a large chunk of last week out on the road, which is unusual for me and reminded me how much I used to dislike the daily commute grind.

Spoke to a room full of agri reps at a conference in Preston on Wednesday, staying over the night before. The hotel, nice though it was, could only have been closer to the M6 if it had actually been built on the hard shoulder.

As ever the room was rather hot, but given the close proximity to the motorway going to sleep with the window open was sadly not very realistic. Every man & his dog in attendance (except for moi) seemed to have varying degrees of "man flu". Sitting in a warm room full of reps oozing germs from every orifice, coughing, spluttering and one or two even compelled to doze off rather than hang on my every sage word.

There was just enough time to check a few emails on Thursday before heading off to the Hull Dinner. Basically a warm room full of traders with "man flu" oozing germs from every orifice. There was one red hot topic of conversation there, if only I could remember what it was.

Back home Friday afternoon, coughing and spluttering myself now, check a few more emails before an early finish. Time to relax, the kids went off to the local swimming baths leaving the delightful MrsN#3 and I for a nice peaceful Chinese meal from the local delivery service. Singapore fried rice and fillet steak Cantonese style, washed down with Lemsip. lovely.

Literally five minutes after ordering the Chinky (no offence to any Chinkies) the phone goes and it's the local swimming baths. Bear in mind that I've answered the phone here. "Oh, hello is that MrsN#3?"

What are they on about do I sound like a woman or something? What are they trying to insinuate here, exactly? My own newly acquired "man flu" means that my voice is several octaves lower than normal, so Christ what must I sound like normally? Joe Pasquale? Or maybe George has told them that his mother is Bonnie Tyler?

Suffice to say that George has split his head open, thoughtfully before even bothering to actually enter the pool. Ho hum.

By an amazing stroke of luck the Chinky is just around the corner from the hospital. So MrsN#3 goes into casualty with a profusely bleeding small boy, whilst I pop off round there to attempt to intercept our relaxing evening repast.

Of course, you can guess that the driver just left three nano seconds ago didn't he. MrsN#3 rings to say that it's only going to require a bit of "glue" and they'll be out in 20 minutes. But you know that they won't don't you.

Three hours later they emerge, with the Chinky stone cold and a now perky George wanting to know what he's having for tea. Bearing in mind it's now ten o'clock at night, and we still have to go and pick his sister up from her cousins up the road.

The entire household goes to bed hungry. Well when I say the entire household, I mean excluding the dog. A word of warning here, never give a border terrier Singapore fried rice and fillet steak Cantonese style if you should feel tempted to do so at some point in the future.

Still, every cloud and all that, MrsN#3 gets up first on a Saturday.

I decide that getting completely ratted is probably a smart move to throw the germs off and make them want to vacate my body at the first opportunity. For some unknown reason I decide to go on eBay, drunk, not a smart move. I put a bid of fifty quid in for a Mickey Mouse outfit and come within 23 minutes of owning Liverpool FC.