London WHeat HIghest Since Jan Ahead Of USDA Report
09/06/16 -- EU grains mostly a touch lower, but still close to multiple monthly highs.
Front month Jul 16 London wheat closed up GBP0.55/tonne at GBP111.50/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.75/tonne higher at EUR171.00/tonne, Aug corn closed EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR186.50/tonne and Aug 16 Paris rapeseed closed EUR1.75/tonne firmer at EUR382.25/tonne.
Jul 16 London wheat closed at he best level since January.
Tade eyes are now on tomorrow;s +USDA WADSE reports, and will be looking to see if, amongst other things, recent dryness concerns in parts of Europe are picked up upon.
London Wheat Posts Highest Close Since Jan
06/06/16 -- EU grains closed firmer across the board, with Jul 16 London wheat down GBP1.850/tonne at GBP109.30/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat up EUR2.00/tonne at EUR171.75,tonne, June corn was EUR02.25/tonne higher at EUR183.75/tonne and Aug 16 rapeseed was up EUR3.25/tonne to EUR382.50/tonne.
For London whet this was the best close on a front month since late January, with weak sterling supporting in the run-up to the Brexit election.
Chicago Grains Close - Friday
03/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed lower on the day but with strong gains for the week. Rumour of strong Chinese buying underpins the market in the wake of reduced Argentine production and exports in 2015/16. Informa this morning reduced its 2015/16 Brazilian soybean production estimate by 1.6 MMT to 98.5 MMT (USDA: 99 MMT), but left its Argentine production unchanged at 55 MMT. Weekly US export sales came in at 309,400 MT for old crop and 736,700 MT for new crop against expectations for a combined 600,000 MT to 1.0 MMT. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.32, down 12 1/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.85 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $414.30, down $4.00; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.26, unchanged.
Corn: The corn market closed higher. Informa put its updated 2015/16 Brazilian corn production estimate at 78.9 MMT (USDA: 81.0 MMT). The trade is now thinking that the USDA is at least 1MMT overstated on Brazilian corn if not more like 3-4 MMT. Ending stocks there in 2016/17 are therefore not likely to be so large as the USDA currently expect. Weekly export sales for old crop of 1,317,900 MT were impressive. Net sales of new crop 128,900 MT were also reported. Trade forecasts were for sales of 1.0 to 1.5 MMT combined. US Corn is competitively priced for export, unlike wheat. Strong demand is being seen from the feed sector where the US meal-corn spread hit 18 month highs this week. The trade is still thinking that maybe 300-500,000 acres of intended corn won't get in this year.
Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.18 1/4, up 3 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.19 3/4, up 4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed firmer. Weekly export sales came in at 107,400 MT on old crop and 385,000 MT on new crop. New crop sales included one 55,000 MT consignment to Brazil. Informa estimated that 2016/17 US winter wheat production will reach 1.448 billion bushels. If correct this would boost US production 52 million bushels and carryout would grow to 1080 million bushels for the 2016/17 crop year. Wet weather in France, and the forecast for more of the same to come, keeps causing concern over quality/quantity losses and pest issues. FranceAgriMer cut their weekly crop ratings again today and now go only 81% good to very good, 8 points down on this time last year. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.97 1/4, up 11 3/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.74, up 9 1/2 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.47 3/4, up 7 cents.
French Crop Worries Rally EU Grains
03/06/16 -- EU grains finished mixed at the close of the week, with Jul 16 London wheat up GBP0.70/tonne at GBP107.45/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat was up EUR1.50/tonne at EUR169.25tonne, June corn was EUR01.00/tonne lower at EUR175.25/tonne and Aug 16 rapeseed was up EUR0.50/tonne to EUR379.25/tonne.
For the week, London wheat rose GBP0.90/tonne, Paris wheat rose EUR2.25tonne, corn added EUR4.00/tonne and rapeseed gained EUR5.25/tonne.
Declining French crop conditions have go a few traders jitters, with FranceAgriMer again dropping the proportion of the crop rated as good to very good by 2 percentage points on the week to 81% which is now 8 points down on this time last year.
French winter barley ratings fell 10 points on the week to 78% good to very good, down versus 83% a year ago. Spring corn conditions meanwhile were trimmed from 86% good to very good a week ago to 79% as of Monday night.
The French winter wheat crop was estimated at 87% headed versus 57% a week ago and 93% this time in 2015. They said that 10% of the spring wheat crop is heading versus 38% a year ago. Corn planting was estimated at 98% complete versus 100% done this time last year.
This is the story that's provided a little traction for the market this week. With FranceAgriMer's reports done as of conditions on a Monday it's likely that next week's report will show further declines.
Weather models have France in for wetter than normal conditions through to June 20.
Russia said that spring cereals there are 96.4% sown on 29.9 million ha (28.5 million ha in 2015).
Chicago Soybeans Stealing The Show
02/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal surged to fresh highs for the move. are looking for USDA weekly Export Sales to be 600,000 MT to 1.0 MMT for soybeans, with meal between 150,000 and 300,000 MT for both marketing years combined in tomorrow's one day delayed export dales report. The Buenos Aires Exchange Grain Exchange say that the Argentine soybean harvest is 78.7% complete. That is 14.8% slower than this time last year. That, and production/quality fears over what had been cut are the reason for this rally. "Santa Fe and Cordoba were hit with 10-16 inches of rainfall in April, amounting to 3-4 times the average," say Martell Crop Projections. US plantings are going week at this early stage. I Therefor find it difficult to buy into this long-term. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.44 1/4, up 44 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.77 3/4, up 13 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $418.30, up $19.20; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.26, up 7 points.
Corn: The market closed narrowly mixed, seemingly not buying into the reasons given for soybean firmness. The US Energy Dept reported weekly US ethanol production at 960,000 barrels per day, up 14 bpd from last week. The Buenos Aires Exchange Grain Exchange say that the Argentine corn harvested is 3003% complete. Weekly export sales tomorrow are expected to be in the region of 1.0 to 1.5 MMT. The FAO estimated world corn harvest in 2016/17 at 1.208 million tonnes, up from 971 MMT in 2015/16. Ending stocks for both marketing years were forecast at 205 MMT. "In the US, planting is almost complete and conditions are favourable throughout the primary growing regions," they said. In the EU, conditions are favourable, although some planting delays occurred due to cold and wet conditions," they added. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.15 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.15 3/4, up 3/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market ended higher as renewed concerns over protein content and rain delays in areas of the western Plains came back to the fore. Apart from that the fundamentals are unchanged. The FAO estimated world wheat production at 924 MMT, up 5 MMT from 20151/6. They see stocks rising from 195 MMT To 216 MMT however. This is a 15-year high following sharp upward revisions, mostly to inventories in China but also EU and the Russian Federation," they added. Weekly export sales for tor tomorrow US report are forecast at just 100,000 to 550,000 MT. EU export licences are now only 3% down on where they were a year ago. Russian and Ukraine grain exports are running at record levels. French wheat might not quite match least year's harvest, but will be large nevertheless, and ending stocks are also high. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.85 1/2, up 11 3/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.64 1/2, up 8 1/2 cents; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.28 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents.
EU Grains Mostly Steadier As Exports Stay Strong
02/06/16 -- EU grains mostly higher happy to follow firmer US market
Front month Jul 16 London wheat closed up GBP0.85/tonne at GBP106.75/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat was EUR3.00/tonne higher at EUR167.75/tonne, June corn closed EUR2.75/tonne higher at EUR178.25/tonne and Aug 16 Paris rapeseed closed EUR4.50/tonne firmer at EUR37.725/tonne.
Good second half season wheat exports are cutting ending stocks estimates and at the same time increasing final export totals closer to last season's record.
Brussels confirmed 633 TMT worth of soft wheat export licences this past week, taking the 2015/16 total so far to 28.8 MMT, just 3% less than this time a year ago.
After running well ahead of normal, French wheat crops are now losing quality and slipping down ratings tables.
The crop looks generally pretty good at the moment, but there are strong concerns that the mild winter has increased the number of disease spreading insects.
Germany;s crop survived the mild winter well but crop development here is also a bit behind schedule now.
Overall, a similar crop to last year's 16.4 MMT harvest can be expected for UK wheat at the moment.
Chicago Spybeans Hit New Highs
01/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans rose to their best levels on a nearby contract since September 2014. The monthly USDA crush report released after the close showed that 158.15 million bu of soybeans were crushed during the month of April. This was down 5% from March, but 1.14 million above the average trade guess. Last night's crop progress report had beans 73% planted versus 68% a year ago, and 66% for the 5-year average. Emergence is at 56% versus 55% last year and 40% on average. Market fundamentals probably don't warrant beans around $11/bu at the moment, but that's what we've got - in both crop years. Fund money is still short and nervous. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $10.99 3/4, up 21 1/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.68 1/2, up 12 3/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $399.10, up $2.50; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at $32.19, up 37 points.
Corn: The corn market posted decent gains, and now stands at the highest levels in almost a year on a front-month basis. Lanworth noted that the drought in Brazil’s second crop corn has affected their satellite imagery estimates for the crop – having them lower their estimate to 74.9 MMT for both Brazilian crops compared to the USDA’s 81 MMT. Brazil’s cereals exporting association Anec cut its estimate for 2016 corn exports to 23 MMT from 23.7 MMT previously. The USDA had corn plantings in he US at 94% complete last night, the same a a year ago, but up a little versus 92% on average. They said that 72% of the US crop is good to excellent, 2 points down on a year ago. The regular USDA export inspections report are delayed a day by the Memorial Day holiday and will now be released on Friday. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.13 3/4, up 9 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.15, up 8 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with good gains. The USDA had winter wheat crop conditions up 1 point to 63% in last night's report, with spring wheat up 3 points to to 79%. Possible crop damage to French wheat following recent heavy rains is getting some air-time. FranceAgriMer have steadily been dropping their condition ratings there in recent weeks. Similar conditions are now also getting a mention in Germany. Morocco were reported to have bought 133,000 MT of unknown origin wheat. China only sold off 6,500 MT of the 50,331 MT offered up for sale at government auction today. Australia's 2016 wheat harvest will be the best in five years, National Australia Bank said - pegging that at "at least" 26.1 MMT. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.73 3/4, up 9 1/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.56, up 8 3/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.36 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents.
EU Grains MIxed, Weighing Up Brexit Implications
01/06/16 -- EU grains traded mixed, with Jul 16 London wheat down GBP0.20/tonne at GBP105.90/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat unchanged at EUR164.25/tonne, June corn was up EUR1.75/tonne to EUR173.50/tonne and Aug 16 rapeseed closed EUR2.50/tonne lower at EUR374.25/tonne.
Sideways trading is/was the name of the day, and looks set to remain so now until we get stuck into harvest 2016 or a proper US weather scare.
There's some talk of the French labour dispute spilling over onto the grains sector, but no sign of that happening just yet.
If anything it's excess rains that are more likely to be a problem there.
The pound closed back below 1.29 versus the euro last night as the UK Brexit referendum approaches.
The UK's economy would suffer "a large negative shock" if it left the EU, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said last night.
Whilst plenty are ready to tell us what would happen if we did or didn't vote to leave, few are focusing on the likelihood of that happening. Most bookies are offering only around 2/7 for that, suggesting that this is a pretty unlikely outcome, so fretting over the consequences of an even that's unlikely to happen could be a bit of a waste.
A Reuters survey, which places greater weight on forecasters with a higher rate of accuracy, estimates the GBP/EUR at 1.2550 a month from now, to 1.29 in 3-months, over 1.32 in 6-months and 1.3650 a year from now.
That suggests weaker London wheat relative to the Paris market for the coming 12 months.
