EU Grains Mostly Lower As FSU Crop Estimates Rise
21/05/14 -- EU grains were mixed, but mostly a little lower, as yesterday's consolidation proved to be short-lived.
The day ended with May 14 London wheat closing down GBP0.05/tonne at GBP151.00/tonne, and new crop Nov 14 London wheat GBP1.15/tonne lower at GBP147.90/tonne. Nov 14 Paris wheat closed EUR1.00/tonne lower at EUR198.75/tonne, Jun 14 Paris corn was down EUR1.50/tonne at EUR175.50/tonne and Aug 14 Paris rapeseed ended the day unchanged at EUR358.25/tonne.
Fresh news was relatively lacking, and lower still seems to be the path of least resistance.
The Ukraine Farmers Club forecast grain production there this year at 60.0-61.5 MMT, that's down on last year's record 62.9 MMT output, but not a bad result at all considering that SovEcon yesterday increased their Russian grain production estimate by 2 MMT, thanks to the extra volume from the annexation of Crimea.
They estimated the Ukraine corn crop at 28.5-29.0 MMT versus 30.9 MMT last year, with wheat output little changed at 22.0-22.5 MMT and a barley crop of 8 MMT versus 7.6 MMT in 2013.
The Ukraine Ministry said that spring grain planting there is 90% complete at 7.52 million hectares, including 4.64 million ha of corn. They've also sown 4.23 million ha of sunflowers and 1.54 million ha of soybeans.
Russian spring grain plantings meanwhile are 68.3% done on 21.8 million hectares, which is 4.6 million ha more than at this time a year ago. That includes 7.4 million ha of wheat, 7.1 million ha of barley and 2.3 million ha of corn.
The pound rose to 1.69 against the US dollar, threatening to break through the 1.70 mark for the first time since October 2008. It also hit 1.2350 versus the euro, it's best since the first few days of 2013. Neither is good news for UK export prospects, demand for which is virtually non-existent in 2014/15. Yesterday's news that UK inflation had risen to 1.8% in April, from 1.6% in March, the first increase in 10 months, adds weight to market expectations for a domestic interest rate hike before too long.
Spain said that it had imported only 172.8 TMT of wheat in March, down 18% from February and 21% below the volume imported in March 2013. In contrast it imported 627.2 TMT of corn in March, nearly double the amount shipped in a year previously, echoing an EU-wide trend.
Iraq bought 150 TMT of Russian wheat for Sep/Oct shipment. They seem to be the most aggressive seller of new crop wheat around at the moment.
Rusagrotrans estimated Russia’s 2014 grain crop at 95-97 MMT versus 92.4 MMT in 2013. They estimated Russia’s 2014 grain exports at 27-28 MMT versus 25.3 MMT in 2013.
Big crops and the correspondingly aggressive export stance from the FSU nations is rarely good news for EU grain prices.
Egypt said that it had so far bought 2.75 MMT of new crop wheat on the domestic market, and that it expects to buy a total of 4.4 MMT this season.
Chicago Grains End Lower In Turnaround Tuesday Style
20/05/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower in Turnaround Tuesday style, with funds estimated as being a net seller of around 3-5,000 contracts on the day. Rumour has it that China is still having problems opening up Letters of Credit to pay for South American soybean cargoes. The Chinese government sold more than 80% of the 300 TMT of soybeans offered up for auction today. Oil World estimated the global 2013/14 oilseeds crop at 487.5 MMT versus a previous forecast of 483.5 MMT and 457.8 MMT last season. They pegged the world soybean crop at 280.0 MMT versus 280.6 MMT previously and 267.4 MMT in 2012/13. They see world soybean ending stocks in 2013/14 at 73.1 MMT versus 78.2 MMT previously and 63.1 MMT in 2012/13. They didn't give a figure for the coming season, but other analysts see 2014/15 soybean carryout rising further to around 80-82 MMT. The predicted El Nino weather event for summer 2014 would normally be beneficial to US soybean production. Dr Cordonnier estimated 2014 US soybean yields at 44.5 bu/acre, fine tuning it from a previous estimate of 44.0-45.0 bu/acre. He estimates production at a record 3.62 billion bushels, which is around 98.5 MMT, some 9 MMT higher than in 2013. He left both his Brazilian and Argentine 2013/14 production estimates unchanged at 86.5 MMT and 55 MMT respectively. Brazil's IMEA estimated the Mato Grosso 2014/15 soybean planted area at 8.67 million hectares versus 8.35 million in 2013/14. They see output in Brazil's largest producing state at 27.31 MMT versus a 2013/14 estimate of 26.04 MMT. The USDA announced 110,000 MT of optional origin beans sold to China for 2014/15 shipment. The combination of improved US yields, on the back of record plantings, followed by an increase in sowings in Brazil for 2014/15 equals a lot of bearish factors stacked against higher soybean prices in the months ahead. We will however undoubtedly get the usual weather market at some point across the summer. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.69 3/4, down 15 1/2 cents; Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $14.05 1/4, down 14 1/2 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $486.70, down $3.80; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 40.07, down 35 points.
Corn: The corn market finished around 3-4 cents lower. Fund money was judged as being a net seller of around 4,000 corn contracts on the day. Last night's USDA planting progress report revealed that growers have now pretty much caught up with the average pace for this time of year, and in some key states like Illinois and Indiana are actually ahead of normal. Dr Cordonnier estimated the US corn yield at 162.0 bu/acre, down from a previous estimate of 163-165 bu/acre, although up on 158.8 bu/acre last year. He pegs the 2014 US corn crop at 13.66 billion bushels. He left his 2013/14 Brazilian corn crop estimate unchanged at 73.5 MMT, along with Argentina's at 24.0 MMT. South Korea's MFG bought 198,000 tons of optional origin corn for Nov-Dec shipment. Russian corn planting is said to be around 86% complete, with Ukraine at around 90% done. There are some suggesting that Ukraine may not plant much more than what is already in the ground due to credit problems. There's also some talk of heat and dryness being an issue in large parts of Russia. The very heavy rains of last autumn that cut winter plantings back in Russia however means that sub soil moisture levels are still good, although surface moisture levels are getting a bit thin in places, I am told. For now it doesn't seem to be a problem, although it's a situation that certainly merits monitoring given what drought in the region has done to the grain markets in some recent years. Corn planting in France and Germany is well advanced compared to 12 months ago. On the weather front in the US "strong warming is predicted in the week ahead with abundant sunshine, improving planting conditions. Last week was cold in the Midwest with temperatures 5-6 F below average. Less rain is also predicted, encouraging drying. Strong warming and drying in the Midwest is evidence of a fundamental shift in the weather pattern. A warm ridge of high pressure would replace a cold trough previously," said Martell Crop Projections. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.73 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.72 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower, ultimately failing in an attempt to rally, having traded higher for much of the morning. Fund money was estimated as being a net seller of around 2,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. US weather conditions on the Plains are seen turning wetter, although this moisture may come too late to be of much benefit to winter wheat. "Drought stressed wheat in Oklahoma and Texas are expecting a drenching rain, at least 1.5 inch but up to 3-4 inches. Kansas is expecting .50-1.25 inches. This would be the wettest week since September 2013 in Southern Plains wheat. Wheat would not benefit much from late spring rainfall as wheat development is well advanced. Kansas wheat is 70% heading, while Oklahoma and Texas heading has reached 90-95%. Heavy rainfall may increase kernel weights, stabilising the yield though strong improvement is not expected. Hard red wheat conditions worsened to a season low on May 18, 22% good-excellent, 27% fair and 51% poor-very poor," said Martell Crop Projections. SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2014 grain crop at 90.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 88.0 MMT due to additional supplies from Crimea. Production in 2013 (excluding Crimea) was 92.4 MMT. They see wheat output this year at 50.0 MMT versus 52.1 MMT in 2013/14. Russia’s 2014/15 wheat exports were estimated at 17.5 MMT versus a 2013/14 estimate of 18.3 MMT. Japan is feeding less wheat as corn prices have regained their more normal discount. Japan’s Ag Ministry said that the use of wheat in animal feed in March was 2.5% versus 2.7% a month previously and 3.6% in March 2013. Corn usage in feed meanwhile has increased to 46.2% versus 46% in February and 42.2% in March 2013. Japan are staging their regular weekly tender, this time looking for 97,372 MT of food wheat for June–July shipment of a mixture of US, Australian and Canadian origin. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.70 1/2, down 4 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.68 1/4, down 1/2 cent; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.38 1/4, down 1/2 cent.
EU Grains Consolidate From Recent Heavy Losses
20/05/14 -- EU grains markets finished the day higher, in consolidation from the recent sharp correction. This was the first time London wheat had managed a higher close in 11 sessions, during which time it has fallen GBP16.75/tonne.
The day ended with May 14 London wheat closing GBP0.80/tonne firmer at GBP151.05/tonne, with new crop Nov 14 London wheat GBP1.15/tonne higher at GBP149.05/tonne and Nov 14 Paris wheat EUR2.50/tonne steadier at EUR199.75/tonne. Jun 14 Paris corn was up a euro at EUR177.00/tonne, whilst Aug 14 Paris rapeseed rose EUR0.75/tonne to EUR358.25/tonne.
The wheat market is desperate for something bullish to hang onto, maybe the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's announcement that an El Nino event this summer is 70% likely is enough. Barclays said that wheat has advanced by an average of 13% during 6 previous El Nino years going back to 1986. Certainly El Nino would normally wreak havoc on Australia's wheat crop. It would also however typically bring a relatively cool and wet summer to the US Midwest, as well as provide plenty of rain in South America. The latter could be beneficial to the wheat crop in Argentina and Brazil, depending on the exact timing of it's arrival.
Meanwhile crops in Europe look great, the recent warm and dry spell is set to give way to soaking rains by the end of the week, which should be ideal.
The German Stats Office said that winter grains there had been sown on 5.42 million hectares, including 3.154 million ha of wheat (versus 3.06 million the previous year) and 1.24 million ha of barley (versus 1.21 million). Spring grains, excluding corn, had been planted on 558k ha, versus 551k a year ago. German growers will also plant 510k ha of corn, up from 497k in 2013, they added.
Oil World estimated the EU-28 rapeseed crop at a record 21.9 MMT, up from 21.3 MMT in 2013. They forecast the EU-28 2014/15 crush at 23.5 MMT, versus 23.1 MMT this season. EU-28 rapeseed imports will fall from 3.6 MMT in 2013/14 to 2.9 MMT next season due to the higher domestic production levels, they said.
Russian spring wheat has been planted on 6.7 million hectares, 2.2 million more than this time last year, and 50.7% of the intended area, the Ag Ministry said. Russian growers have also planted 7.0 million ha of spring barley (79.8% of plan), along with 2.2 million ha of corn (85.8%), they added.
The word out of Russia is that crop conditions are currently similar to last year.
SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2014 grain crop at 90.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 88.0 MMT and the 2013 crop of 92.4 MMT. They pegged Russia’s 2014/15 grain exports at 24.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 22.0 MMT although still down slightlyfrom their 2013/14 estimate of 25.6 MMT. Wheat exports will account for 17.5 MMT of that versus a 2013/14 estimate of 18.3 MMT, they said.
The Ukraine Ag Ministry said as of May 19th the country had planted 90% of its spring grains crop
Lebanon bought 30,000 MT of Romania wheat for June shipment. Jordan bought 50,000 MT of optional origin barley for October shipment and is tendering for 150,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat for Sept-Nov shipment. Algeria is looking for 50,000 MT of optional origin barley for Jul-Aug shipment. Russian wheat was said to be the cheapest offer in an Iraqi tender for hard wheat for August shipment.
Anode Feeds And Other Stuff
20/05/14 -- Ian Tremain is back! Five years after leaving Tremains Ltd, Ian Tremain has re-entered the animal feed supply business and launched Anode Feeds Ltd.
“An anode emits a positive charge and I felt the name reflected what I’d like a new company to feel like”, said Ian.
Anode Feeds will operate out of a former poultry mill in Cannington, near Bridgwater and will be exclusively supplying the trade with feed ingredients, meal and blends.
“We have the ability to make small runs and bespoke diets and while we can supply bulk feeds, our point of difference will be our ability to provide tote and small bags competitively”. Further information can be found by contacting Ian on 07811 198979.
Who says that there's no such thing as a free lunch? Ian's just had one. I'm sure his finger will be simply itching to hit the donate button, seeing as my lunchtime is also looming. Very thirsty work this blogging malarkey you know.
Meanwhile, sugar beet. Does anybody want any? I've got a bit of SupaFlow to shift this month. POA. For you I make speshial price beautiful lady/handsome genitalman etc, etc.
Wheatfeed coming out of every orifice too. Erm, I mean only a couple of loads left. Selling faster than tickets to Yaya Toures' birthday party that stuff...
Chicago Market Comments - Monday
19/05/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with decent gains. Weekly export inspections came in at 167,953 MT, which was towards the top end of the expected 80-175,000 MT. Inspections for the 2013/14 season to date are now almost 41.9 MMT versus 34.3 MMT this time a year ago. The Argentine harvest is making only slow progress (around 69% done, say the Ag Ministry) compared with a year ago, dogged by rain. Those rains however appear to have boosted yields. These are being called "exceptional" in Western Chaco state in the north of the country, averaging 4.0-4.2 MT/ha compared to the 10-year average of only 1.64 MT/ha. China are to auction 300,000 MT of soybeans from state-owned reserves on tomorrow. Last week's auction was better received that expected. Chinese crush margins are said to be "nominally in the black" now. They are said to have been fairly active buyers of new crop US beans in the past week or so. Funds were estimated to have been net buyers of around 10,000 soybean contracts on the day. The USDA were expected to report US 2014 soybean plantings at around 30-35% complete. They came out with 33% done versus the 5-year average of 38% and up 13 points from a week ago. Minnesota is a notable laggard at 16% done versus 45% normally. Soybean emergence was 9% versus 11% normally. AgCanada estimated Canada’s 2014 canola area at 8.013 million hectares versus a previous estimate of 8.75 million. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.85 1/4, up 20 1/4 cents; Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $14.19 3/4, up 20 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $490.50, up $10.30; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 40.42, down 33 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 5 to 6 cents lower on the day. Weekly export inspections of just over 1 MMT were in line with the expected 950,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. The season to date total is now 31.5 MMT versus 13.1 MMT a year ago. The FAO estimated Argentina’s 2013/14 corn crop at 25.0 MMT versus the USDA's forecast of 24 MMT. The Ukraine 2014 corn crop is 89% planted, and Russia's is 79% done as of Friday. Ukraine said that it had exported 19.1 MMT of corn so far this year, with Russia's export total at 3.7 MMT - both are records. The USDA were expected to report US 2014 corn plantings at around 70-75% done as of Sunday night. The figure that they came up with was 73%, slightly behind the 5-year average pace of 76%, but not drastically so. Michigan (29% done versus 65% normally), Minnesota (53% versus 81%), North Dakota (17% versus 54%) and Wisconsin (36% versus 61%) are the stand-out laggards. Illinois (84% versus 73%), Indiana (72% versus 62%), Missouri (92% versus 77%) are ahead of normal. The USDA said that 34% of the crop is emerged versus the 5-year average of 42%. A year ago 71% of the US corn crop was planted and only 19% was emerged, so beating last season's average yield of 158.8 bu/acre is still possible, although whether they can hit the USDA's current trendline yield estimate of 165.3 bu/acre is another matter. Good planting weather is forecast for most of the US corn belt this week. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.77 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.75 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents. This was the lowest close for a front month since Mar 14.
Wheat: The wheat market ended the day little changed, recovering from trading in the red for much of the day. Weekly export inspections of 552,525 MT were in line with the expected 450-575,000 MT. That takes the total inspected for export for the season to just short of 30.2 MMT versus 26.3 MMT this time a year ago. The USDA say that exports for the current season, which finishes in two weeks, will total 31.5 MMT. That now looks unlikely. AgCanada estimated Canada’s 2014 wheat area at 10.9 million hectares versus a previous estimate of 9.99 million and the USDA's current forecast of only 9.8 million acres. They now see production in 2014/15 at 29.6 MMT. That's down from the record 37.5 MMT produced a year ago, but higher than other estimates from a bit earlier in the year and the USDA's current 28.5 MMT. Turkey are tendering for 190,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat for Jul–Aug shipment, along with 100,000 MT of optional origin barley for Jun-Jul shipment. The FAO estimated Argentina’s 2014/15 wheat crop at 10.5 MMT, up 14% from a year previously. Russia said that it had exported 17.3 MMT of wheat so far this season, including 469 TMT in the first two weeks of May. The USDA reported that 57% of the US winter wheat crop is now headed, in line with the 5-year average of 58%. They said that 29% of the crop was rated good/excellent, down one point on last week and 2 points less than a year ago. Spring wheat is 49% planted versus the 5-year average of 68%. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.74 1/2, up 1/4 cent; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.68 3/4, up 1 cent; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.40 1/4, up 1 cent.
EU Grains Lower Again On Buoyant Crop Outlook
19/05/14 -- EU grains closed lower, with London wheat extending its decline to ten sessions in a row. Fresh news was scarce, but the path of least resistance remains lower.
May 14 London wheat ended down GBP1.45/tonne at GBP150.25/tonne, and new crop Nov 14 London wheat closed GBP1.10/tonne lower at GBP147.900/tonne. Nov 14 Paris wheat closed EUR2.00/tonne easier at EUR197.25/tonne, Jun 14 Paris corn fell EUR1.50/tonne to EUR176.00/tonne and Aug 14 Paris rapeseed was down EUR2.50/tonne to EUR357.50/tonne.
Concerns about Ukraine have gone on the back burner, the market is now looking at a very good European crop that is both well advanced of normal in maturity and in significantly better condition than a year ago.
Export levels out of the FSU are also well ahead of where they were at this point in 2013.
Ukraine said that it had exported 30.5 MMT or grains so far this season, up 43.2% on a year ago. That total includes 19.1 MMT of corn, 8.8 MMT of wheat and 2.3 MMT of barley.
Russia said that it had exported 23.7 MMT of grains to May 14, a 60.3% increase on a year ago. That includes 17.3 MMT of wheat, 3.7 MMT of corn and 2.4 MMT of barley.
Russia’s Ag Ministry said that Russia’s 2013 grain crop was 89.3 MMT versus 68.7 MMT in 2012.
Despite the large level of exports, the Ukraine Ministry said that grain stocks there as of May 1 were still up 12% on a year ago at 9.1 MMT, including 3.4 MMT of wheat, 4.3 MMT of corn and 900 TMT of barley.
Egypt said that it had bought 2.5 MMT of new crop wheat on the local market, out of a total domestic purchase target of 4 MMT. They said that this year's harvest will amount to 9 MMT versus 8.5 MMT a year ago.
Turkey is shopping for 190,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat for Jul/Aug shipment, along with 100,000 MT of optional origin barley for Jun/Jul shipment.
UK crop conditions look stupendous. A very good dose of weekend sunshine, followed by the forecast bout of heavy mid-week rains, will further add to crop health.
Crop conditions in France are also ahead of year ago levels, according to FranceAgriMer on Friday.
Things have also perked up considerably in Germany after some early season concerns.
Chicago Grains Closing Comments - Friday Night
16/05/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans finished mixed, lower on old crop and higher on new crop. Fresh news was limited to end the week. The USDA reported private soybean sales of 180 TMT to "unknown" for 2014/15 shipment. They also reported the sale of 40 TMT of soyoil to China for 2013/14 shipment. Rumours of a vessel set to load beans in Brazil bound for China being unable to obtain a Letter of Credit dampened sentiment. The South American harvest is entering the final straight, just about done in Brazil and past two thirds of the way through in Argentina. Both are expected to have brought in record soybean crops, and both might fancy a tilt at breaking that record again in 2014/15. US growers certainly also will, with the USDA reporting plantings there at 20% complete as of last Sunday, which now is in line with the 5-year average of 21% despite all the talk of weather-related delays. That may have advanced to something like 30-35% this week, we will know on Monday night. As of this Sunday last year plantings were only 24% done. US soybean ending stocks to usage at the end of 2013/14 is currently seen at a record tight 3.8%, expanding to a more comfortable 9.6% by the end of 2014/15. World ending stocks in 2014/15 meanwhile are expected to be almost 12 MMT above the previous record high at 82.23 MMT. China will auction another 300 TMT of soybean reserves on Tuesday next week. Ukraine is 95% planted on it's intended sunflower acreage and 90% done with it's anticipated record 2014 soybean crop. South Korea bought 55 TMT of South American soymeal for Sep 1-20 shipment in a tender. The latest Commitment of Traders report shows managed money increasing its long in beans by a net 6,281 contracts for the week through to Tuesday night. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.65, down 5 1/4 cents; Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $13.99 3/4, down 2 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $480.20, down $1.20; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 40.75, down 29 points. For the week that puts front month beans down 36 cents, with meal losing $17.30 and oil falling 23 points.
Corn: The corn market ended with little change on the day, but lower for the week. The trade expects that US farmers will have made good progress with corn plantings again this week, with the USDA likely to maybe report that 70-75% of the crop is in the ground as of Sunday night. A year ago US farmers equalled their busiest corn planting week on record, sowing 43% of the crop in a week, to take plantings to 71% complete. "I wouldn’t be surprised if corn planting is north of 75% complete on Monday afternoon’s report," said Benson Quinn's Brian Henry. "China is formalizing plans to auction the first 1 MMT of what’s reported to be 70 MMT of reserve corn stocks. They could feasibly offer a total of 20 MMT over the course of the next 6 months," he added. That is a phenomenally large volume of corn. No wonder they are in no hurry at all to approve the MIR 162 variety, which has effectively halted imports from the US entirely. Chinese think tank CNGOIC yesterday estimated China's 2014/15 corn production at a record 222.1 MMT, outstripping consumption by almost 26 MMT. Ukraine reported corn planting at 89% complete. Russia is 79% done, and France 92% finished. Weakness in wheat weighed on corn for a third day today. Tonight's Commitment of Traders report shows fund money shedding 11,435 contracts of their length for the week through to Tuesday night. That still left them net long of a meaty 255k lots, which in theory could see the market have some more downside if they continue to ditch that length. They've certainly been net sellers since Tuesday night, dumping an estimated 5,000 lots on Wednesday and a further 10,000 contracts on Friday. They were judged to have been net sellers of maybe 1,000 in the corn pit today. The USDA currently see 2014/15 US corn ending stocks to usage rising to 12.9%, although that is dependent on a record high 2014 average yield of 165.3 bu/acre, which may be over optimistic. World ending stocks to usage in 2014/15 is seen at 18.8%, although again this relies for a large part on these record US yields being achieved. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.83 1/2, down 3/4 cent; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.81 1/4, up 1/4 cent. Corn lost 22 cents on the front month this week.
Wheat: The market closed lower across the three exchanges, with Chicago wheat again managing to put up the best show of resistance. Egypt bought just the one cargo of Ukraine origin wheat in it's tender for late June shipment. Russia said that it had planted 53.5% of it's intended spring grains acreage, including 34.4% of it's wheat and 73.8% of it's barley. Ukraine's spring grain area is 89% planted, according to the local Ministry. Winter wheat planting is now underway in Argentina, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecasting an 18.8% hike in area to 4.3 million hectares. Good moisture profiles, good prices (relative to corn) and crop rotation purposes all offer growers an incentive to plant more this year, they said. SovEcon increased their forecast for Russia's 2013/14 wheat exports from 17.8 MMT to 18.4 MMT. There's some suggestion that the high level of Russian exports this season will mean that carryover at the end of the season is only minimal. That may explain why there were no Russian offers in the Egyptian tender. The Indian Ag Ministry estimated their 2014/15 wheat crop at a record 95.85 MMT, up from 93.61 MMT a year ago. US spring wheat plantings continue to lag, however strong Midwest warming is predicted next week, according to Martell Crop Projections. "Temperatures are predicted be above-average in the mid 70s-mid 80s F. Night temperatures would rise into the 60s F, a big improvement," they said. However, with the rise in mercury also comes "a renewed risk of showers and thunderstorms, although the 6-10 day forecast is favourable for advancing spring planting suggesting near average Midwest rainfall and temperatures," they added. Tonight's Commitment of Traders report shows fund money about square in Chicago wheat for the week through to Tuesday night. Their net long stands at 45,307 contracts. They were however net sellers of 2,353 Kansas wheat contracts, and are estimated to have been further significant sellers since. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.74 1/4, down 4 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.67 3/4, down 11 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.39 1/4, down 15 3/4 cents. Chicago wheat lost 39 3/4 cents on the week, with Kansas wheat down by 51 1/4 cents and Minneapolis losing 55 1/2 cents.
London Wheat Extends Losing Run To Nine Straight Sessions
16/05/14 -- EU grains were mixed to end the week, with old crop London wheat extending its unbroken run of falling every day since Bank Holiday Monday on May 5th. Paris wheat had also fallen in every session since then, but managed to post a small gain at the close today, although now that the May 14 contract has expired, it's new crop Nov 14 that is the front month there.
The day ended with May 14 London wheat closing down GBP1.05/tonne at GBP151.70/tonne, and new crop Nov 14 London wheat GBP0.25/tonne lower at GBP149.00/tonne. Nov 14 Paris wheat closed EUR0.25/tonne higher at EUR199.25/tonne, Jun 14 Paris corn was down EUR0.50/tonne at EUR177.50/tonne and Aug 14 Paris rapeseed ended the day EUR0.75/tonne higher at EUR360.00/tonne.
For the week May 14 London wheat slumped GBP9.75/tonne, whilst Nov 14 was down a slightly more modest GBP7.15/tonne. Nov 14 Paris wheat fell EUR8.00/tonne, Jun 14 Paris corn was down EUR6.75/tonne and Aug 14 Paris rapeseed was EUR1.00/tonne higher.
Old crop London wheat has now virtually given up all the gains put on in February and March that followed Russia's annexation of Crimea. It has also surrendered the large premium that it held over new crop. Just a month ago today May 14 traded at a premium of more than GBP10/tonne to the Nov 14 contract and (even just 2 weeks ago the difference was almost GBP9/tonne) and tonight that differential is only GBP2.70/tonne.
European crop conditions largely look very good, with the warm dry spell forecast for the weekend and early next week likely to be of benefit. Rain returns by the middle of next week, and the 15-day forecast predicts above average precipitation for just about the entire continent, including some of the drier areas of Spain and France.
FranceAgriMer reported that 44% of the French winter wheat crop is now heading, up from 18% a week ago and well ahead of only 6% this time last year. The entire French winter barley crop meanwhile is headed, compared to only 38% of it a year ago, and even 4% of the spring barley crop is heading against 1% this time in 2013. They said that 89% of the spring barley crop is displaying an ear of at least 1cm versus only 39% a year ago.
French corn planting meanwhile is 92% complete compared to 77% this time last year, and 79% of the crop is "lifting" compared to 46% in 2013.
FranceAgriMer said that 73% of the winter wheat crop is in good/very good condition, unchanged on a week ago and 6 points better than a year ago. Winter barley rated good/very good was also unchanged at 70%, 3 points ahead of this time last year.
Spring barley is 70% good/very good, up a point on last week, although less than 79% a year ago. The French corn crop is rated 91% good/very good versus only 72% at this date in 2013.
Brussels issued more corn import licences (448 TMT) than it did wheat export ones (424 TMT) for the second week running. Wheat exports authorised to date total 25.7 MMT against 17.4 MMT this time a year ago. Corn imports are at 12.7 MMT versus 9.85 MMT in 2012/13.
Egypt's GASC bought just one cargo of Ukraine origin wheat in it's tender. The price paid was said to be $289 plus $13.49 freight. French wheat was reportedly offered at $290.87, and US wheat $282.87 - although much higher freight ruled out the latter. There weren't many offers in this tender, which may be down to the fact that the Jun 20-30 shipment period falls awkwardly between old and new crop. It may also show trader reluctance to offer to Egypt specifically after some reported problems with Letters of Credit recently.
The Ukraine Ministry said that spring grain plantings there were complete on 7.418 million hectares, or 89% of plan. That's less than 7.978 million ha this time last year. The planted total includes 4.582 million ha of corn (also 89% of plan).
Will all the intended area get sown? Currently most analysts seem to think so, although inputs of fertiliser and pesticides will probably be reduced due to credit issues. The same financial problems may however also make Ukraine growers even more "needy" sellers at harvest time than normal.
Russia has planted 17.1 million hectares of spring grains (53.5% of plan), which is 2.6 million more than a year ago. That includes 4.5 million ha of wheat (34.4%), 6.4 million ha of barley (73.8%) and 2 million ha of corn (79.2%).
Whilst Ukraine has picked up decent rains in the past month, Russia has not. The forecast for the former remains beneficial for most of the country except the far east. All but the south of Russia though is forecast to remain hot and dry for the next two weeks.
The latter situation certainly merits watching, as the unusual heat and dryness being experienced now is already being compared to the great drought of 2010. That pushed the price of London wheat up by GBP50/tonne during the month of July, and prices added a further GBP50/tonne between then and the end of the year.
