Separated At Birth #15
Kenn From Krusoe and Waynne Kerr.
There are two NN's in Kenn apparenntly, annd possibly inn Waynne but we arenn't sure onn that onne.
Does annybody knnow him? He's gonne downn in NNogger Blog history by beinng the first personn ever to sennd me a snnotty email sayinng "please remove me from your spamlist."
Well, Kennnn, you will be pleased to knnow that I have removed you from my "spamlist" I guess that's onne personn who wonn't be takinng advanntage of the "Buy Nnogger a beer" optionn thenn.
You clearly cann't please all of the Dannes anny of the time.
Meannwhile welcome to Jaime Nolan Miralles, clearly a mann of discernnmennt & taste, who writes:
Hi,
Could I have the privilege of taking Kennnnnnnnnn's place. Can you add me to your e-mail list for your wheat postings.
Great work!
Jaime
Early Call/Reaction To The USDA Numbers
The early call on CBOT, after the release of the USDA numbers is: corn to open 10-15 cents lower, soybeans down 15-20 cents and wheat down 7-10 cents.
The corn and soybean numbers are undoubtedly a bit bearish.
For corn in particular, stocks are seen building due to cutbacks in demand from the ethanol sector and lower exports.
The soybean numbers were not quite so bearish, and we still have the threat of further crop losses in South America, however beans could get dragged down by corn.
For wheat it's a game of two halves, the ending stocks are higher than anticipated, and pressure from corn will weigh on old-crop. For new-crop however the figures were rather bullish showing a much larger than expected reduction in plantings for the 2009 crop to be harvested in the summer.
Crude oil is almost $2.50 lower at $38.37/barrel, so that may also have an influence this afternoon. The market is also still concerned about Friday's weak employment data.
USDA WASDE Numbers Summary
The main changes to world 2008/09 production in today's WASDE report from the USDA are:
Chinese corn production increased by 5.5mmt to 165.50mmt.
Argentine corn production reduced 1.5mmt to 16.5mmt.
Argentine wheat production reduced 1mmt to 9.5mmt.
Argentine soybean production reduced 1mmt to 59.5mmt.
EU-27 wheat production reduced 390,000mt to 150.51mmt.
USDA Numbers - Wheat Acres Surprise
Wheat
All wheat plantings for the 2009 crop were 42.098 million acres, substantially lower than the average trade guess of 44.178 million acres, and around 4 million below last season's 46.181 million. The lowest trade estimate for wheat plantings was 42.920 million acres, so this number from the USDA was almost 1 million acres lower than anybody else anticipated, and also double the decrease that had been estimated at 9% down as opposed to the 4.5% expected.
Wheat ending stocks were 655 million bushels, against average expectation of 600 million bushels, and compared last year's 306 million.
Corn
The final 2008 corn crop was pegged at 12.010 billion bushels, slightly above the average estimate of 11.982 billion bushels. In November, the USDA put corn at 12.020 billion bushels, and 2007's crop was a record 13.074 billion bushels.
Corn ending stocks were 1.790 billion bushels, substantially higher than the average estimate of 1.489 billion bushels.
Soybeans
The final 2008 output was 2.959 billion bushels, versus the average trade guess of 2.910 billion bushels, and compared to November's guess of 2.921 billion and the 2007 total of 2.676 billion. Analysts’ estimates ranged from 2.879 billion to 2.940 billion bushels, so this figure was higher that anyone had anticipated.
Soybean ending stocks were 225 million bushels compared to the average estimate of 186 million bushels.
WARNING: Milk Chocolate Contains Milk
In yet another example of officialdom gone mad, Cadbury's are being forced to put a warning on their Dairy Milk chocolate bars that the product does, astonishingly, contain milk.
Cadbury's say that the warning is "in case people who are allergic to milk do not realise that there is milk in Cadbury Dairy Milk bars."
Sweet baby Jesus is all I've got to say on that.
China To Build USD1.2 Billion Helicopter Factory
I can't see it getting off the ground myself.
Recession, what recession? More helicopters is what we need, and we need them fast. The Chinese government unveiled plans today to construct a $1.2 billion helicopter factory Tianjin, east of Beijing.
Are they going to make them out of all that spare melamine they suddenly find they've got on their hands I wonder?
Overnight Markets - Monday Morning Roundup
eCBOT grains are largely firmer, but off earlier highs, trimmed by falling crude oil and a strong dollar.
At 7.30GMT soybeans are 8-14 cents firmer, having posted gains in the 20's earlier in the session, as the weather outlook for South America turns drier than forecast last week.
Mostly dry conditions with just a few light showers Wednesday and Thursday, returning to dry conditions again Friday, with temperatures normal to above normal, is the revised forecast for Argentina.
Argy corn is about to start pollinating and soybeans flowering in the next couple of weeks.
The Argy winter wheat crop has already been slashed by drought from 16mmt to around 9mmt across the last few months. This clearly highlights that the recent dryness is not just a recent development. This situation has been ongoing for the last 8 months or so. If you recall Argy winter wheat plantings were reduced, in part by drought (plus other political factors), when the crop went into the ground back in May/Jul.
Corn and wheat on eCBOT are unchanged to a couple of cents firmer, wheat having been around 7 cents higher, with corn as much as 5 cents firmer.
South Korea is seeking to buy 110,000 metric tons of corn for feed production in a tender.
The Australian wheat harvest is finally in the bag in NSW, producing a crop of around 6.5mmt, significantly higher than last season's drought ravaged 1.8mmt. Despite the increased crop, Australian wheat is higher this morning following CBOT's strong close Friday night with ASX January A$5 higher at A$292.50/tonne.
Crude oil back below $40 at $39.70 is what is keeping the grains in check this morning, after the entire sector posted strong gains Friday night. Despite swingeing cut in production by OPEC, demand continues to slump and stocks keep rising.
A firmer dollar is also tempering gains in the grains sector. The euro is under pressure with the ECB expected to cut interest rates in the Euro Zone later in the week. At 8am GMT the pound stands at $1.5060 against the dollar and 1.1275 against the euro.
