Eurocat Amongst The Bailout Pigeons
04/08/11 -- Here's a very interesting article for you: Could There Really Be A Recession Risk In Germany?
Which makes out a strong case for potential trouble ahead for Germany's export dependent economy.
This also prompts the question how deep are you going to dig to fund the next bailout request Frau Merkel if this comes to pass?
German Wheat Crop 23 MMT - Toepfer
German trading house Toepfer International say that their domestic wheat crop this season will total 23 MMT, 0.4 MMT down on their August estimate and 2.2 MMT below output in 2009.
Persistent rains throughout August have been so bad that some of the crop isn't even going to make feed grade, they say.
The world wheat crop will come in at 643 MMT, 2.7 MMT down on last month's estimate and 37.3 MMT down on 2009, they add.
Germany Latest
The German Ag Ministry say that this season's grain crop is likely to be 43.8 MMT, down 12% on lst season.
All wheat production is seen at 23.92 MMT; barley output will consist of 8.66 MMT of winter barley and 1.76 MMT of spring varieties; corn production is expected at 3.64 MMT; the rye harvest will decline to 2.84 MMT; OSR output will be 5.7 MMT.
All those numbers are down on last season's bumper production, but in most cases they're not as low as some other estimates have been.
They played down the need for imports of high end quality wheat, saying that the country should be sell-sufficient in such grades despite the highly publicised purchase of 20,000 MT of hard wheat from the US this week.
They did however concede that exports would be significantly reduced in 2010/11.
German Harvest Latest
The German Farmers' Union DBV report that this season's winter barley harvest is virtually complete, with yields nationwide down by 8%. Most of the crop was harvested before the recent arrival of rain, meaning that moisture levels came in at around a nice dry 14%. Bushel weights are highly variable, from 57-74 Kg/hl, but mostly averaging 63-68 kg/hl. Local prices are running at EUR120-140/tonne, they report. The spring barley harvest is only just beginning, and early harvest indications are that yields will be 10-15% down on last year.
The winter wheat harvest has really only just begun in many places, with overall yields expected to fall by 10-15% on last season. The arrival of recent rains may lead to further yield losses it is feared, they say. Again highly variable bushel weights are being reported at 66-80 kg/hl.
The OSR harvest is also underway, being most advanced in Rhineland on the light soils of Lower Saxony, Westphalia, Saxony-Anhalt and Brandenburg where about three-quarters of the crop has been harvested. Results show an anticipated yield loss of 12% on last season, with oil content generally ranging 40-44%. Producer prices are around EUR320-360/tonne, they say.
The corn crop remains well behind normal development due to the June/early July heat and drought, although the recent rains will have improved the situation. Even so below average yields are still expected.
First cut silage suffered at the hands of a cold wet spring, with quality and quantity both reduced. Second cut was badly affected by the ensuing heat, they say.
German Production Estimates Cut
Hamburg-based Toepfer have reduced their German crop production estimates quite sharply from last month saying that the cold winter delayed crop maturity. In addition "dry conditions in the last six weeks and the extremely high daytime temperatures have affected the yield potential of crops in many places," they add.
Winter wheat production is now pegged at 23-24 MMT (down from an estimated 25.56 MMT just last month and 25.16 MMT in 2009). Barley output is now seen around 10 MMT (10.56 MMT; 12.29 MMT) and rapeseed production at 5.5 MMT (5.83 MMT; 6.31 MMT).
They also report that "the growing conditions for maize have been poor so far" estimating this year's crop at "just under" 4 MMT (4.47 MMT; 4.59 MMT). "However, precipitation in the next few weeks could again improve the situation for maize," they add.
German Harvest Latest
Joachim, our German correspondent, reports that the grain harvest in the north of the country has resumed after interruptions by rain. In wheat quality continues to be varied. Yields in the west have continued to come in 10-25% lower than last season, although some wheat brought in on lighter soils have yielded quite well. Bushel weights are also varied, between 68-78 kg/hl.
The wheat harvest has yet to begin in the central mountain areas and the south west, where the cooler temperatures mean that the wheat is not yet ripe.
Current ex farm values vary from between EUR150-165 depending on area and quality, says Joachim.
First results from rye suggest that the crop has coped better with the heat and drought than wheat. Malting barley continues to disappoint and the rapeseed harvest is far from over with yields and oil content only "average" he adds.
German Harvest Latest
The German Farmers' Union Deutscher Bauernverband (DBV) say that wheat yields are likely to be 10-20% down on last year, although harvesting of this season's 3.25 million hectares has only just begun.
The 2010 harvest is marked by extreme weather events, they say. The long snowy winter and the continued wet and cold weather in April, delayed crops. Since mid-June, high temperatures and prolonged drought have now accelerated the harvest and led to premature ripening of wheat, barley and rapeseed, they say.
The winter barley harvest on the sandy soils in the eastern areas of Lower Saxony is already almost complete, whilst On the heavy soils in the northern parts of Germany it is in full swing, they add.
Nationwide barley yields vary quite widely with some regions seeing falls of 10% on last season, yet others such as Bavaria witnessing an improvement of 10% on last season. Overall they expect barley yields to be around 3% lower, they say. Quality is coming out "surprisingly well" especially in eastern areas, they add.
The rapeseed harvest is underway, but it is too early to make an accurate prediction on yield and oil content levels, although early results confirm that the recent heat must lower yields from last season's bumper levels, they conclude.
German Harvest Latest
My man Joachim in Germany, reports that early rapeseed yields are coming in at around 3.5-4.0 MT/ha this year. That's some 10-20% down on last season, although as Joachim points out last year was an exceptional year for yields.
He expects better results from rapeseed grown on heavier soils. Oil levels are currently coming in at around 41-43%, with moisture as low as 6%, reflecting the very dry finish to the season.
In the Rhine Valley the first wheats are also being harvested. Yields are coming in at 7-8 MT/ha, a good result for the area, although protein levels are surprisingly low, Joachim says.
The barley harvest in East Germany is virtually complete, and has produced surprisingly good bushel weights. In the Brandenburg region 65-69kg/hl is common, he adds. Ex farm prices off the combine here are around EUR101-102.50/tonne, with EUR110 available for September collection, he says.
German Crop Estimates Cut All Round
The German farm cooperatives association (DRV) has cut it's crop production estimates all round, saying that "continuing heat has caused over-proportional damage especially to wheat and maize plantings and late sowings of summer grains." Things could get worse yet, they said, warning of further cuts ahead after the mercury hit 40C over the weekend.
This season's wheat harvest will come in at 23.8 MMT, 5.5% lower than last year's production. The winter barley crop was cut to 8.45 MMT, 15.5% down on last year. Spring barley is now estimated at 1.69 MMT, 23.2% down on last year. Corn output is now pegged at 4.0 MMT, and 11% fall on year ago levels, whilst OSR production is now seen falling 10.5% to 5.62 MMT.
German Harvest Latest
My German corresspondent, Joachim Ruhmann, reports of disappointing winter barley yields in northern Germany. The Bavarian Farmers' Association estimate grain production (excluding corn) in the region at 6.3 MMT, 10% down on last year and 6% below average. Crops on lighter soils, in the north in particular, are showing signs of premature ripening, they say.
Further south things are more positive, with early harvests on heavy soils showing good yields and quality, although samples are not as good on lighter sandier soils, they say. Corn is suffering under drought conditions they add.
In Saxony, early winter barley harvesting has been producing bushel weights of only around 60 kg/hl. Low temperatures in May followed by the subsequent drought have also caused many crops to ripen too early, reducing yields, says Wolfgang Vogel of the Saxony Farmers' Association.
There is also concern over the quality of wheat in Saxony, where crop development is already over due to the heat. Although the ears are white, below the stems are still very green, he says. Local corn is "in a pitiful state" with stems no higher than 30 cm tall, which is we below normal and establishment very "patchy", he adds.
Interestingly some barley, rye and triticale crops are also being harvested as whole crop silage, for fear of impending bottlenecks at the German biogas plants, Joachim tells me.
New crop barley prices have improved considerably this past week, with EUR125-130 ex farm now being achievable for September collection, he adds.
French/German Harvest Latest
Joachim Ruhmann of DLR reports that early harvesting results from southern France remain disappointing. Barley yields are coming in 5-15% below last year with specific weights "not outstanding" - in the region of 62-64kg/hl, he says.
Early data from the harvesting south of Chartres and the Loire have been hit by the cold winter and the heat of the past few weeks, says Joachim. After interruptions to the harvest caused by weekend rains and thunderstorms, farmers' activity has resumed with harvesting already estimated at around a third complete in the southwest of the country, he adds.
Indications are that wheat and rapeseed yields will also be hit, coming in below last season's levels, he concludes.
Meanwhile in Germany early harvesting results are more promising, says Joachim. Winter barley yields and specific weights are quite varied, with averages of around 65kg/hl. The colour of this season's barley is a surprise, says Joachim, describing it as "very bright, almost white".
Yields are also fluctuating quite widely, but overall will probably average lower than last season, he says.
Some of the forward parts of the Rhineland could see the barley harvest be almost completed by the end of the week, whereas in Munsterland to the west the crop is around 10 days behind normal development, despite the recent hot weather, says Joachim.
New crop barley prices ex farm Rhineland yesterday were around EUR105-109/tonne ex farm, he adds.
Germany: One More Game Before Harvest
The Germans have just enough time for one more game in the FIFA World Cup before their 2010 harvest begins, according to my new chum Joachim Ruhmann.
The winter barley harvest will begin in East Germany in around a week's time, he says, followed by a busy rapeseed and wheat harvest starting in late July.
The barley harvest is expected to kick off in the Frühdruschgebieten district of Saxony next week, with farmers there expecting average yields of 6.3-6.5 tonnes/ha, says Joachim.
The rapeseed harvest is likely to begin around three weeks after that in late July. OSR yields are particularly difficult to predict this year, due to the extremely long flowering period witnessed in the spring, says Saxon Farmers' Andreas Jahne.
The rapeseed and wheat harvests look like coinciding this year, "the danger is that everything is pretty crowded," says Jahne, adding that wheat yields are expected to be "about average".
After that comes the corn crop, which is only developing slowly after a cold May and subsequent lack of adequate rainfall, he adds.
German Grain Production To Decline In 2010
The German Agribusiness Report for Q2 2010 says that:
"Grain production in Germany now looks set for a poor year in 2010. Cold, wet weather over the winter will likely see yields of both wheat and barley fall. Low prices in 2009 also contributed to a fall in area. Barley production will be the worst hit. Bumper crops in 2007/08 and 2008/09 have seen stocks rise. Demand for German barley on the export market is weak owing to bumper crops in other major producers. This will see intervention purchases rise owing to the low market price."
Unfortunately if you want a little more flesh on the bones than that then you have to part with GBP330: Achtung!
German Wheat Crop Seen Lower
The association of German farming cooperatives (DRV) forecast the 2010 winter wheat crop there at 24.59 MMT. That's a decrease of around 2% from last season's harvest of 25.2 MMT.
Rapeseed output will also decline to 5.67 MMT, they said (down around 10% from 6.3 MMT in 2009/10), with even greater falls seen in barley (-14%) and rye (-25%) production.
The reductions are seen on lower yields due to the cold winter and slow progress with spring plantings, they said.
Germans Offer 780,000 MT Barley Into Intervention
German farmers have offered 780,000 MT of barley into the EU Intervention scheme since it opened on November 1st, according to German agricultural agency BLE.
The Germans obviously fancy around EUR102/tonne a lot more than their UK counterparts, who have only put up around 13,000 MT of barley for intervention so far - and the vast majority of that has been in Scotland including a storage contract.
The Germans alone are expected to put around 1.5 MMT into intervention this season, the problem with that of course is that it's got to come back onto the market at some point.
Ditto everything else being offered up by the French, the Danes, the Eastern Europeans and Uncle Tomaz Cobblski.
German Ethanol Production Leaps
Production of ethanol in Germany leapt by 50% in the first two months of the 2009/10 marketing year (July/August), according to the trade body the Bundesmonopolverwaltung für Branntwein (BfA). Blimey, that's a mouthful isn't it missus?
The closure of the "splash and dash" loophole in the face of the US helped production increase from 105,000 cubic metres in July/August 2008 to 158,000 cubic metres this year, they say.
The main feedstock? Surprisingly not wheat but rye.
They don't mention the war, and why should they? We're all friends now.
How Big Is Germany's Wheat Crop?
The IGC recently said 26.4 MMT, a small increase on last season despite reduced plantings, with yields averaging around 8 MT/ha.
The agriculture ministry have just upped their estimate by 100,000 MT, but still only to just shy of 25.2 MMT (including a small amount of durum wheat).
That's a fairly substantial difference of opinion is it not? Not as substantial as getting confused over which adjacent countries belong to you granted, but significant nevertheless.
Barley output is held steady at 12.3 MMT (12.0 MMT in 2008), whilst rapeseed production is also increased by 100,000 MT to 6.3 MMT, 21% higher than in 2008.
German Wheat Harvest May Disappoint After All
In a surprise announcement the German Agriculture Minister said Wednesday that this season's wheat harvest may fall short of last year's output, coming in at 24.8 MMT.
Estimates for this year's production have been steadily rising from the likes of Strategie Grains, Toepfer and the association of German farm cooperatives (DRV) to around the 26 MMT mark.
It would seem that constant disruptions by rain to the harvest during late July and August have caused some quality and yield problems after all.
German Harvest Disrupted By Rain
Harvesting of barley and rapeseed in Germany is off to a stuttering start after repeated disruptions by widespread rain, according to media sources.
Harvesting of wheat was scheduled to start next week, if the weather co-operates, although forecasts through to Sunday include repeated showers across much of the country.
The German association of farming cooperatives (DRV) currently forecast Germany's winter wheat crop at 24.63 MMT, down 5.2% on last year.
Barley output is generally seen slightly lower this year at around 11.8 MMT, from 12.0 MMT a year ago. This season's rapeseed crop is expected at around 5.1-5.5 MMT, compared to 5.16 MMT a year ago.
German Grain Production Latest
Grain production estimates in Germany have been revised slightly higher by the association of German farm cooperatives (DRV), saying that a cool and wet May/June period has aided yields.
This means that the German grain harvest this season will total 47.8 MMT, they say, that's 400,000 MT more than their previous estimate although still 4.6% lower than last season's 50.1 MMT.
Wheat production has been revised upwards to 24.9 MMT, up 100,000 MT from previously, but still 4.25 lower than last season's 26.0 MMT.
Barley output will be 11.8 MMT they say, up 200,000 MT from their earlier estimate and now just 1.7% down on last season's 12.0 MMT.
Corn production will be 4.4 MMT (13.7% down on 5.1 MMT in 2008) and oilseed rape output 5.2 MMT (2% higher than last year's 5.1 MMT), they say.
German trading house Toepfer are a little more conservative, pegging the nation's grain crop at 46.5-47.5 MMT, of which wheat is estimated to be in the region of 24-25 MMT.
French analysts Strategie Grains pegged the German wheat crop at 24.5 MMT a fortnight ago, with barley coming in at 11.9 MMT.
Oil World recently said that German rapeseed production this year could reach a record 5.5 MMT.
